Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    clydes6
    Newest Member
    clydes6
    Joined

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Still no landfall through 78 for Florence... but it is weakening... 966mb

At 78 takes slight nudge to the right, then says I need to go back and hit that area more with a slight nudge back to the left. Has basically been in same area from 48 to 84! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS takes Florence as far NW is Eastrern KY at hour 156 then turns back SW thru Western NC at hour 168 to about the midpoint of the SC/GA line at hour 180 with the remnants about to emerge back into the Atlantic off the Southern coast of SC at hour 186. Edit: Actually turns SW again and emerges off the Florida panhandle into the GOM at hour 204.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Convection is starting to fire west of the core where it's been sheared, in addition to the impressive convection on the western side of the eyewall

 

Impressed with the amount of lightning coming along w/ that convection

 

Screen_Shot_2018-09-11_at_9.13.23_PM.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at dropsonde data (versus the VDMs) it looks like the pressure may have gone up one to two millibars this evening. As others mentioned, winds are slowly increasing at both the surface and flight level. 130 knot FL wind in the NE quad on that last pass with SFMR around 125 MPH. It looks like we'll get at least one more pressure check from recon before they head home. I'd say Florence has spent most of the day recovering from the EWRC. Who knows if it'll stay steady-state or actually have some modest intensification. Either way, the wind field has expanded significantly today. Like Hurricane Ike and its massive wind field, the wheels have been set in motion for a potentially catastrophic storm surge - regardless of the eventual maximum wind speed. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A little feature I'm watching is mid-to-upper level cyclonic flow that appears to be increasing over eastern Florida. This future ULL has been modeled well by both ECMWF and GFS to close off at 400-250 mb level and retrograde over the northern GOM. This may provide excellent evacuation of mass to the west and an outflow channel for Florence tomorrow afternoon through Friday landfall/stall.a94c18ba66312e20060f1638e73009b1.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

There has to be some poorly analyzed shear impacting florence, it's had problems getting anything going to the SW of the core all evening. Until this is fixed, florence should struggle to intensify much. 

goes16_ir_06L_201809120438.jpg?27.9291.9

Agreed.

Here are my latest thoughts:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/powerful-hurricane-florence-continuing.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, hlcater said:

There has to be some poorly analyzed shear impacting florence, it's had problems getting anything going to the SW of the core all evening. Until this is fixed, florence should struggle to intensify much. 

goes16_ir_06L_201809120438.jpg?27.9291.9

 

I'd say it was pretty well analyzed:

2018AL06_AMSUAAVG_000000000000.GIF

For some reason though, it wasn't mentioned at all in the NHC forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

What does that graphic have it at now? 


Looks like 15-20 kt.  Look at the top plot, which shows the 200-850 hPa wind difference averaged an area centered on the vortex.

But agreed, I think poorly forecasted shear was the culprit today, which inhibited further intensification.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...