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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea this EWRC has really taken a while. Definitely could impact the strengthening expected. I'm thinking we see winds down this morning. Eye is going to be huge once it finishes so like David said, may take some time for winds to respond once pressures begin dropping again

Has it though?  People say that with every storm.  EWRC’s often take more than 24hrs.

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12 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Has it though?  People say that with every storm.  EWRC’s often take more than 24hrs.

I don't follow hurricanes as much as other severe weather so I wasn't aware of their average time to complete. I was thinking it was around 12hrs but with a larger eye trying to evolve I could see why it would take longer with complicated inner core dynamics 

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KUDOS to the NWS.   Images from the GOES 16 are so crisp.  The models are converging very nicely.   The NHC has been very silky smooth with updated forecasts.  The NHC formed an early consensus and track shifts have been small angle shifts.

People in the path have days of warnings and time to prepare.   

It would be nice if the EURO and GFS can learn to play nicely with each other.

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15 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I don't follow hurricanes as much as other severe weather so I wasn't aware of their average time to complete. I was thinking it was around 12hrs but with a larger eye trying to evolve I could see why it would take longer with complicated inner core dynamics 

Nope.  Often longer.  Heck, with really big storms that are much more common in the W PAC, concentric eyes can be stable.  There are some great radar images of that structure out of Guam.

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To one of the pros that frequent the board. This is for VA/NC mountains. If the system stalled let’s say over south central SC, wouldn’t that still create a ton of lift and add to a southeast component streaming straight from the Atlantic? Long story short would some of the QPF be under-modeled potentially along the spine of the Blue Ridge? 

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The NAM has known issues that result in erroneous deepening of TC's. But, because of low biases in model produced 10m wind plots, it may actually have the most reasonable model depiction of sustained winds/gusts in Florence as it approaches NC/SC. Sustained 120's gusting 150's is very reasonable, even though 920mb probably isn't (though who knows given the favorable environment). Images from https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/761-w-341-n/radar-reflectivity/20180913-1800z.html

us_model-en-153-0_modusahd_2018091106_60_8463_212.png

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

To one of the pros that frequent the board. This is for VA/NC mountains. If the system stalled let’s say over south central SC, wouldn’t that still create a ton of lift and add to a southeast component streaming straight from the Atlantic? Long story short would some of the QPF be under-modeled potentially along the spine of the Blue Ridge? 

Not necessarily a pro, but yes upslope flow would enhance rains with SE winds. However, a storm stalled over SC would produce N/NE winds over the VA/NC mountains. See graphics below for illustration. (full res ECMWF maps free from https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/819-w-373-n/wind-925mb/20180916-0900z.html)

 

 

us_model-en-153-0_modez_2018091100_129_5704_460.png

us_model-en-153-0_modez_2018091100_129_5704_397.png

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41 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

To one of the pros that frequent the board. This is for VA/NC mountains. If the system stalled let’s say over south central SC, wouldn’t that still create a ton of lift and add to a southeast component streaming straight from the Atlantic? Long story short would some of the QPF be under-modeled potentially along the spine of the Blue Ridge? 

To some degree, yes. This is something the globals will have a hard time showing, and this is where local knowledge comes into play. With that said, if it does go through SC, the best/strongest dynamics will stay south of Virginia. Still a long ways to go before we can nail down where the heaviest rain will fall-- it will continue to change in the next couple days, but southern Virginia Blue Ridge and into NC has the best chance of the heaviest rain.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like ERC is just about complete. The inner eyewall has diminished. The new eyewall is constricting and deep, intense convection has begun wrapping around the center again.

F7xcuAB.gif

Some of those cumulonimbi have got to be out of this world, height wise. The convection in the southern and southeastern portion of the cyclone is impressive to say the least. 

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1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

To one of the pros that frequent the board. This is for VA/NC mountains. If the system stalled let’s say over south central SC, wouldn’t that still create a ton of lift and add to a southeast component streaming straight from the Atlantic? Long story short would some of the QPF be under-modeled potentially along the spine of the Blue Ridge? 

I'm no expert, but after living in WNC for a number of years and becoming familiar with the microclimates, I feel like an E/NE flow could lead to very high rainfall totals along the Brushy Mountain and South Mountain spurs (Yadkin and Catawba River Valleys).

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10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like ERC is just about complete. The inner eyewall has diminished. The new eyewall is constricting and deep, intense convection has begun wrapping around the center again.

F7xcuAB.gif

in air recon still reporting a slight inner eye wall. not quite sure its done ERC yet. 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

in air recon still reporting a slight inner eye wall. not quite sure its done ERC yet. 

Thinking it is very close to being finished. Should be by midday or so. Afterwards I think this has the best shot it will have at C5, especially given the C5 winds at flight level just waiting to mix down.

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