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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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Complete Sunday Morning Florence Package available.   

PDF File of Sunday Morning Package

Key Points:

  • After high altitude sampling of the offshore environment ahead and north of the storm yesterday, the ridge to the NE and N of Florence is now trended to be stronger

 

  • Ensembles have shifted SW with some members back into South Carolina

 

Sunday 09SEP18 7AM Florence Package

Depend on your local NWS office for official information in making all preparation decisions

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Hopefully this thing goes out to sea. I need some advice but my problems are not even close to what Carolina residents have to deal with, but I am still in need of help.
 
I'm flying into CHS from Philly Wednesday morning to visit my brother, and am supposed to go back Saturday morning. I only go down once a year really and we're supposed to go to an indoor concert in Charleston Friday. Seems like that will get cancelled and I'll get stuck at the airport Saturday. Perhaps I just shouldn't go? I have no experience with this kind of thing at all, and this is only my second time flying.


There is still a chance this gets dangerously close to Charleston. Don’t get hung up on the weather weenies here posting each model run as gospel. Charleston is still well within the cone of uncertainty. The models will continue to shift. By Tuesday it should be much clearer as to where this will go and I think you’ll be in a better position to make a call or not to come down to Charleston (I live in downtown CHS btw). If it’s looking like a likely major impact, they will issue evacuation for our area and all of the freeways will be reversed and a **** ton of people go to grocery stores and gas stations at the same time and it will be a little nuts. They would likely make the evacuation call by Wednesday. Went through this with Matthew a few years ago, which wasn’t even that bad of a hurricane. This could be much worse depending on where it lands. Follow official NHC forecasts, not weather weenies, and follow the local news here in chs (twitter is good place to get local news alerts). If it were me, I would definitely continue to plan on coming here as of now, and make the call to come or not on Tuesday.


.

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3 minutes ago, Chucktown81 said:

 


There is still a chance this gets dangerously close to Charleston. Don’t get hung up on the weather weenies here posting each model run as gospel. Charleston is still well within the cone of uncertainty. The models will continue to shift. By Tuesday it should be much clearer as to where this will go and I think you’ll be in a better position to make a call or not to come down to Charleston (I live in downtown CHS btw). If it’s looking like a likely major impact, they will issue evacuation for our area and all of the freeways will be reversed and a **** ton of people go to grocery stores and gas stations at the same time and it will be a little nuts. They would likely make the evacuation call by Wednesday. Went through this with Matthew a few years ago, which wasn’t even that bad of a hurricane. This could be much worse depending on where it lands. Follow official NHC forecasts, not weather weenies, and follow the local news here in chs (twitter is good place to get local news alerts). If it were me, I would definitely continue to plan on coming here as of now, and make the call to come or not on Tuesday.


.

 

I was thinking that this could very likely go to GA/SC border; will have to see what today and tomorrow brings. 

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7 minutes ago, Chucktown81 said:

 


There is still a chance this gets dangerously close to Charleston. Don’t get hung up on the weather weenies here posting each model run as gospel. Charleston is still well within the cone of uncertainty. The models will continue to shift. By Tuesday it should be much clearer as to where this will go and I think you’ll be in a better position to make a call or not to come down to Charleston (I live in downtown CHS btw). If it’s looking like a likely major impact, they will issue evacuation for our area and all of the freeways will be reversed and a **** ton of people go to grocery stores and gas stations at the same time and it will be a little nuts. They would likely make the evacuation call by Wednesday. Went through this with Matthew a few years ago, which wasn’t even that bad of a hurricane. This could be much worse depending on where it lands. Follow official NHC forecasts, not weather weenies, and follow the local news here in chs (twitter is good place to get local news alerts). If it were me, I would definitely continue to plan on coming here as of now, and make the call to come or not on Tuesday.


.

 

Yep. Look no further than the EPS and the UK ensembles. Definitely show what would be a Charleston landfall. Flo is going to have to get her act going soon as most models have her starting her WNW and eventually NW motion soon. 

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On 9/8/2018 at 8:09 AM, Orangeburgwx said:

Back to back runs of the EURO with a Hugo redux... It has its' target now the GFS is the chaser,other models are starting to side with the EURO so watch the GFS cave with a Cat 5 Hugo track

You have got to stop with the Hugo comparisons.  Hugo went through the leeward islands north and then west and slammed into Charleston and rocketed west and then north.  If we have learned anything from models runs,  one single one shouldn't be taken as gospel.

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Thanks for the reply. My brother warned of the road reversal stuff and said it's tough to call right now. I don't get a lot of vacation time and otherwise wouldn't see him until Christmas when he came up here so I don't want to cancel if I don't have to.



There is still a chance this gets dangerously close to Charleston. Don’t get hung up on the weather weenies here posting each model run as gospel. Charleston is still well within the cone of uncertainty. The models will continue to shift. By Tuesday it should be much clearer as to where this will go and I think you’ll be in a better position to make a call or not to come down to Charleston (I live in downtown CHS btw). If it’s looking like a likely major impact, they will issue evacuation for our area and all of the freeways will be reversed and a **** ton of people go to grocery stores and gas stations at the same time and it will be a little nuts. They would likely make the evacuation call by Wednesday. Went through this with Matthew a few years ago, which wasn’t even that bad of a hurricane. This could be much worse depending on where it lands. Follow official NHC forecasts, not weather weenies, and follow the local news here in chs (twitter is good place to get local news alerts). If it were me, I would definitely continue to plan on coming here as of now, and make the call to come or not on Tuesday.


.


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31 minutes ago, gearhead302 said:

You have got to stop with the Hugo comparisons.  Hugo went through the leeward islands north and then west and slammed into Charleston and rocketed west and then north.  If we have learned anything from models runs,  one single one shouldn't be taken as gospel.

As someone who lived through Hugo, I swear I don’t know what he’s seeing. You’re right though, every storm is it’s own storm.

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I get a feeling that this storm is going to track towards an eventual landfall in SC and push inland. I don’t think the models are quite nailing down just how strong the high may be. 

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Going to be a pretty impressive display by her today organization wise.....she is ready to go off and it looks like it might be starting conditions are about as good as they get.....she is trying to clear a eye now. 

 

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Jacksonville, NC here, I love extreme weather like this but have an eerie feeling. Florence is quickly getting organized again, its fascinating to watch the Goes east visible floater.

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13 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

And this could be possible

3422b50e5600e93a3866281fa8805e66f7ac6485

C4A6E060-759F-4416-9D9F-EE9DE64C1F36.png

This is really old.....this has the storm as 110 mph and at like 48W.....she is at 56W west.....I would put the chances at this thing being off Cape Canaveral that close to Florida at extremely low with zero model support.....

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Just checked the generator and it's working fine. I'll start filling 5 gallon drums late Tuesday if it looks like it'll directly affect my area. 

The weather wienie in myself would love for this to hit Wilmington and then plow right for RDU. But the logical part of me says keep this away. I went through Fran and not having power for a couple of weeks sucks.  

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25 minutes ago, AJF0602 said:

Jacksonville, NC here, I love extreme weather like this but have an eerie feeling. Florence is quickly getting organized again, its fascinating to watch the Goes east visible floater.

Same. I'm on the top floor of my apartment. Inventorying everything today just in case of landfall for insurance. 

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25 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

This is really old.....this has the storm as 110 mph and at like 48W.....she is at 56W west.....I would put the chances at this thing being off Cape Canaveral that close to Florida at extremely low with zero model support.....

I agree....I would however split that and say a mid GA coast to SC line as a possible LF. The early. UKie runs had this to the N FL area which peaked my interst seeing how well it performed with Irma. We'll see how that works the next 2 days.

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They explain why they disregard the southern tracks on the ENS well in the 11 am update....also that last sentence is concerning....  

Florence continues moving slowly westward, caught between a pair
of mid-level ridges over the Atlantic Ocean.  A very strong ridge is
forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few
days, which should steer Florence west-northwestward at a much
faster forward speed.  By Wednesday, the hurricane should turn
northwestward, and slow down somewhat due to another ridge forming
over the Ohio Valley.  It is interesting to note that while the
ensemble means from the ECMWF and UKMET are west of the NHC
forecast, the strongest members are on the right side of their
ensemble envelope.  Thus, the new NHC track forecast is very similar
to the previous one, and continues to lie between the corrected
consensus and consensus aids.  The Ohio Valley ridge is concerning
because Florence could stop moving pretty quickly around day 5,
potentially leading to a serious heavy rain episode and inland flood
hazard.

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Just now, Modfan said:

I agree....I would however split that and say a mid GA coast to SC line as a possible LF. The early. UKie runs had this to the N FL area which peaked my interst seeing how well it performed with Irma. We'll see how that works the next 2 days.

Look at the NHC discussion to see why there is little chance this is going south of Charleston....the only way that happens is if Flo goes against all intensity forecasting and remains weak....all the ENS members that hit FL/GA keep her a weak Cat 1 for the next 2-4 days.....all the ens that have her undergoing RI and becoming a Cat 3/4 are north SC or NC....

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4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Look at the NHC discussion to see why there is little chance this is going south of Charleston....the only way that happens is if Flo goes against all intensity forecasting and remains weak....all the ENS members that hit FL/GA keep her a weak Cat 1 for the next 2-4 days.....all the ens that have her undergoing RI and becoming a Cat 3/4 are north SC or NC....

I don't necessarily disagree with your point about the eventual landfall location based on intensity, but will caution that there is more to landfall than intensity.  The strength/weakness and shape of the ridging to the north, not to mention speed of the cyclone, will play a larger role in where this ends imo.

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37 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

This is really old.....this has the storm as 110 mph and at like 48W.....she is at 56W west.....I would put the chances at this thing being off Cape Canaveral that close to Florida at extremely low with zero model support.....

Thanks.  I should have looked closer at the location and times.  I will remove it for clarity

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Just now, Taylorsweather said:

I don't necessarily disagree with your point about location based on intensity, but will caution that there is more to landfall than intensity.  The strength/weakness and shape of the ridging to the north, not to mention speed of the cyclone, will play a larger role in where this ends imo.

The NHC disco covers it well.....and it makes sense, based on all the model speeds and strength projections the further N track into NC makes more sense.....doesnt mean that wont change by any means though but based on all the current data and models it more likely to go MB to Lookout that Hilton Head to Charleston.....there will need to be pretty large errors with the 72 hr track and strength plots for the more southern path to occur and there is a lot of agreement and low error in that range. 

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3 hours ago, Solak said:

"Very windy" has been added to the local NWS forecast for Fri/Sat. Haven't seen that in a while.

Friday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

This is my point and click.

Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 70%

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Sorry if this should be in banter. But, I have a flight back into RDU around 5pm Thursday. Do yall think I'll be able to make it or should we try and come in Wednesday? Or is it still to early to tell? Seats are filling up on alternative flights so I'm under a bit of pressure to make a decision. 

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Food Lion was a mess, no bread and all the water was gone except for the Deer Park brand of which they have a tractor trailer full and have it sitting out on pallets all over the store..they had as employee helping load it in carts for older people he said they had 3 more trailers full of water coming in over the next 2 days to just that store. 

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7 minutes ago, Gibby said:

Sorry if this should be in banter. But, I have a flight back into RDU around 5pm Thursday. Do yall think I'll be able to make it or should we try and come in Wednesday? Or is it still to early to tell? Seats are filling up on alternative flights so I'm under a bit of pressure to make a decision. 

I'd get the earlier flight. Models are pretty bullish and they aren't changing. Doesnt mean they cant or wont but you better be safe and get in early.

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4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Food Lion was a mess, no bread and all the water was gone except for the Deer Park brand of which they have a tractor trailer full and have it sitting out on pallets all over the store..they had as employee helping load it in carts for older people he said they had 3 more trailers full of water coming in over the next 2 days to just that store. 

I'm in Greenville as well, but over near Conley. Even the gas station by HT was almost wiped out of cases of water.

I'm not sure what exactly they were doing, but this was on 43 a couple hours ago just past Bells Fork. Whatever it was, hopefully it helps.

 

Screenshot_20180909-110306.jpg

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GFS is basically not worth looking at past day 5,day 4 and in it does get better and carry some weight.

The difference is around hour 72-96,the GFS pulls the 594dm death ridge out sooner along the VA,MD coast giving it room to stay east.The Euro holds the 594dm death ridge in longer and lets it steer more west.I would look for a middle of the road compromise here in my opinion,a stall out is possible too because of no steering currents once it gets to the coast either.

Carry on.

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