CIK62 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 71degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.7[73.2]. Should be +3.8[72.5] by the 25th. Remnants of Florence near 37.4N 83.3W, this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Holy fog weatherkids I can see across the street but not much further than that. It's a relatively thin ground layer though because there's a distinct blue tinge to the sky and this weird eery bright glow from the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 On 9/15/2018 at 4:26 PM, tdp146 said: I have a bunch of pictures of thre beach at Tobay and gilgo a couple weeks after sandy. It was wild. acually even today we walked towards gilgo and the West gilgo area took a fairly big hit just from Florence. Almost in the same spot that almost washed over during the march 2010 nor easter. Post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Most of our stations are in the top 10 warmest Septembers through 9/16. Same recent pattern where the strongest warmth is north and east of NYC. Top 10 warmest September rankings through 9/16: EWR.....#11 LGA.......#5 HPN......#8 JFK.......#8 BDR.....#5 ISP......#2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Clouds rolling in quickly from the remains for Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 That looks to be moving pretty quickly. What are the chances most of it rolls through overnight rather than during the day tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 NAM shows the heaviest tomorrow between 11 and 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: That looks to be moving pretty quickly. What are the chances most of it rolls through overnight rather than during the day tomorrow? alot of it looks to miss to our north as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: alot of it looks to miss to our north as well.... Some wetter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: alot of it looks to miss to our north as well.... Why do you always post the driest models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Why do you always post the driest models? 3K NAM is fairly accurate of late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 55 minutes ago, doncat said: Some wetter.... Based on the current radar it looks like the heaviest rain amounts could be on the SE Side with convection. The rain shield with the remnant low looks to be more strataform type rains. So despite the fact that areas to our north may have more widespread moderate totals we could see isolated higher amounts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 the models tend to be too far north with convective rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 The convection along 95 and to the East of it in VA is heading in our direction. Tonight should end up wetter than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 really moving north quickly-some showers already into south Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsh Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Poured in Greenwich for 15 minutes, .19 of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 forky and njwx are on the money. the low level jet currently producing convective showers in the dc area and points south is forecast to be overhead from ~midnight-9am. lwx radar is showing widespread 40kt winds aloft, with embedded 50kt maxima in convection. the hrrr, rap and other hi-res models suggest several impulses embedded in the flow will enhance showers periodically during that period. with pwats of 2-2.3", we will all see plenty of rain. as long as it clears out some behind the morning round, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front tomorrow afternoon/eve. that qpf max forecast by most guidance upstate towards boston is associated with frontogenesis and will likely be narrower than most models show. there are signs of a second sfc low developing near jersey or the delmarva later tomorrow, so i think there could be a second precip max just sw-thru-e of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 35 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: Surprised there's no tornado watch, at least over the Delmarva. There's a warned storm in Virginia. I guess they're expecting whatever potential action there may be to be very weak and sporadic. The greatest shear values (25-30kts) are mostly West of DC which is displaced from the higher instability closer to the coast and further Southeast over Eastern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 While we wait for the potential tropical downpours from what's left of Florence, it should be noted that Baltimore has received 0.09" rain today bringing its year-to-date precipitation to 49.05". That ranks 2018 as that city's 29th wettest year on record, just ahead of 1924 when annual precipitation was 49.04". There remains a chance that 2018 could become Baltimore's wettest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The greatest shear values (25-30kts) are mostly West of DC which is displaced from the higher instability closer to the coast and further Southeast over Eastern VA. 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: Surprised there's no tornado watch, at least over the Delmarva. There's a warned storm in Virginia. I guess they're expecting whatever potential action there may be to be very weak and sporadic. Well they issued a tornado watch with several active warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Tornado confirmed on the cell near Richmond Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 347 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018 VAC041-087-760-172015- /O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180917T2015Z/ City of Richmond VA-Chesterfield VA-Henrico VA- 347 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD AND WEST CENTRAL HENRICO COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF RICHMOND... At 346 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near SR 288 and Hull Street road, moving north at 20 mph. A second potential tornado is being observed on radar near Pochantas State Park. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Bensley around 355 PM EDT. Bon Air, University Of Richmond and Downtown Richmond around 405 PM EDT. Virginia Commonwealth University around 410 PM EDT. Richmond and Tuckahoe around 415 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Roslyn Hills and Midlothian. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: really moving north quickly-some showers already into south Jersey I was in a very heavy (short) downpour in Mamaroneck this afternoon. It cleaned all the bugs off the front of the car and windshield I need to do what amounts to a lap of CT tomorrow. I'm hoping it's not wall to wall rain all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I was in a very heavy (short) downpour in Mamaroneck this afternoon. It cleaned all the bugs off the front of the car and windshield I need to do what amounts to a lap of CT tomorrow. I'm hoping it's not wall to wall rain all day. new NAM has 2 rounds of rain, a light one tonight and one late day tomorrow that's heavier so we could sneak in several hours of dry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 A little rotation in that severe cell in Jersey. We are down in VA on our way back from NC and there are tornado warnings poping up everywhere down here. Almost like a mini outbreak with a few confirmed on the ground that caused damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning NJC023-027-035-172115- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0098.180917T2025Z-180917T2115Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 425 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Morris County in northern New Jersey... Central Somerset County in northern New Jersey... North central Middlesex County in northern New Jersey... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 425 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bound Brook, or near Somerville, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. * Locations impacted include... New Brunswick, Morristown, Somerville, Somerset, North Brunswick, Madison, Middlesex, Florham Park, East Hanover, Bound Brook, Manville, Chatham, Morris Plains, Millstone, Colonia, Martinsville, Millington, Society Hill, Basking Ridge and North Brunswick Township. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm may cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4044 7448 4055 7468 4087 7445 4082 7435 4079 7437 4076 7438 4075 7436 4074 7437 4067 7446 4066 7445 4066 7441 4065 7440 4060 7446 4060 7430 TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 215DEG 16KT 4056 7453 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ po Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Broad rotation on the warned cell just to the West of Plainfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Broad rotation on the warned cell just to the West of Plainfield. You can see it has had broad rotation for the past hour but its starting to tighten up a bit. I am sure they are contemplating issuing a TOR warning shortly if continued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: You can see it has had broad rotation for the past hour but its starting to tighten up a bit. I am sure they are contemplating issuing a TOR warning shortly if continued. It's pushing through a heavily populated area at rush hour. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 453 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018 NJC013-039-172115- /O.CON.KOKX.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-180917T2115Z/ Union NJ-Essex NJ- 453 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN UNION AND SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTIES... At 452 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Millington, or near Plainfield, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. This severe storm will be near... Summit around 510 PM EDT. Orange and Millburn around 515 PM EDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4084 7432 4076 7417 4075 7418 4063 7441 4066 7440 4067 7440 4065 7445 4067 7446 4073 7438 4076 7436 4076 7438 4079 7437 4082 7433 TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 217DEG 15KT 4067 7445 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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