Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Any autumnal wx in the LR? Cold front this Sat night-few days of cooler and then back to the regularly scheduled torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 It’s been pouring for the better part of 2 hours on the uws. Definitely getting a good soaking here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1.20 today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Cold front this Sat night-few days of cooler and then back to the regularly scheduled torch. Dang! Was hoping the cane would throw a wrench into the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM had widespread 2-3 inches...most areas will get much less than that...a blend of the two might be best RGEM did well here and I didn't even get under the heaviest convection. Absolutely poured from roughly 12 until about 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 0.33” of mostly light rain. Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Dang! Was hoping the cane would throw a wrench into the pattern. Nope, the tropics blew its load all in one shot and looks to be quiet through at least the end of September. Whatever is left of the circulation from Florence dissipates on the Euro somewhere near Bermuda in about 7 days. On the GFS, it hangs around as a weak low for about the next 300hrs until finally dissipating near Florida. I think the ship has sailed in terms of regeneration, but I supposed stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 Nice little thunderstorm along the shore with broad rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 Blue sky has emerged to the Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 Getting one last downpour here on the uws. 1.77” at the Manhattan meso. Only .7” in wantagh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 18, 2018 Author Share Posted September 18, 2018 Picked up 0.82" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Cold front this Sat night-few days of cooler and then back to the regularly scheduled torch. hmmm I heard there were hints of a big pattern change come next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Picked up .70 here in SW Suffolk with the heavy downpours so far. It was an astonishing 77/77/100% around noon, I wonder if the dew point has ever been this high this late in the year before? https://classic.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-jfk/KJFK/date/2018-9-18 Now it feels better, it's gotten less humid and the temps have dropped from a high of 80 to the low 70s since the winds switched to the north but it's still raining pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 Seems there is always something around Halloween so why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: hmmm I heard there were hints of a big pattern change come next Wednesday. Actually the models are showing another warmup for us around then. Looks as if we could get back to 80 by next thursday-friday (27th-28th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1.06 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Actually the models are showing another warmup for us around then. Looks as if we could get back to 80 by next thursday-friday (27th-28th). Oh that sucks, oh well at least the 90s are done and with the shorter days 80 doesn't feel so bad lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: The MJO is moving into the favorable phases for more Atlantic tropical development just in time for October. This is interesting because usually in El Nino's seasons usually end early and this one actually seems to be getting busier later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 18, 2018 Author Share Posted September 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The two consecutive El Nino Octobers in 2014 and 2015 were active. hmm I wonder why...... I know we've been talking about some of our bigger storms occurring later in the season than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 0.64 final total. Finished with a nice rainbow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1936 east coast hurricane... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52701203/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52701232 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 19, 2018 Author Share Posted September 19, 2018 Picked up 0.82" of rain for the day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 71degs., or about 6degs. AN. Month to date is +3.1[73.3]. Should be +4.0[72.5] by the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 19, 2018 Author Share Posted September 19, 2018 Both the 00z & 06z GFS look pretty wet for next week. There is also a chance for severe weather on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 Clash of the seasons coming up over the next week to 10 days. An early fall trough arrives over the Midwest with the WAR still hanging on near the East Coast. Strong late September Great Lakes cutter pattern along the temperature gradient to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 During the September 1-18 period, the temperature averaged 73.3° in New York City. That makes 2018 the 19th warmest case for the first 18 days of September. Based on both the historical data and the latest guidance, the probability that 2018 will see the fourth consecutive September with a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above has increased. Since 1869, there were 20 prior cases where the temperature averaged 73° or above during the first 18 days of September. In 16/20 or 80% of those cases, the monthly temperature averaged 70.0° or above. In all other cases, just 14% of years saw September average 70.0° or above. Cases with a 9/1-18 Average Temperature of 73° or above: Mean September 19-30 temperature: 66.1° (lowest: 57.5°, 1947; highest: 70.2°, 2005) Mean September temperature: 71.3° (lowest: 68.6°, 1947; highest: 74.5°, 2015) Cases with a 9/1-18 Average Temperature below 73°: Mean September 19-30 temperature: 64.5° (lowest: 55.6°, 1871; highest: 74.7°, 1881 Mean September temperature: 67.4° (lowest: 60.9°, 1871; highest: 73.3°, 1881) For those who are interested, September 1-18, 1881 had a mean temperature of 72.4°, which was the 30th warmest first 18 days of the month. In terms of the guidance (using the first 18 days of September and the MEX MOS and EPS), the estimated mean temperature for September 2018 fell within a 70.5°-72.5° range. The implied probability of September’s having a mean temperature of 70.0° or above was 75%. In the coldest scenario, the implied probability was 64%. Such a warm September is consistent with the long-term observed warming that has seen the return time for September cases with 70.0° or warmer average temperatures shorten. Return Times for September Cases with Average Temperatures of 70.0° or Above (1869-2017): Before 1980: 5.0 years 1980-2017: 3.2 years 2000-2017: 2.3 years 2010-2017: 1.6 years 1869-2017 Period: 4.4 years Yesterday’s 1.19” rainfall brought New York City’s year-to-date precipitation to 44.90”. That ranks as the 71st highest on record in New York City. Based on this data and both the historic (1869-2017) and recent (1971-2017) periods, 2018 will very likely see 50.00” or more precipitation. 60.00” is possible. The lowest 9/20-12/31 precipitation on record is 5.68”, which occurred in 1998. Even that figure would bring the 2018 total above 50.00”. 1869-2017 Data: Implied probability of 50.00” or more: 96% Implied probability of 60.00” or more: 24% Mean 9/20-12/31 Precipitation: 12.21” Mean Annual Precipitation: 45.27” 1971-2017 Data: Implied probability of 50.00” or more: 96% Implied probability of 60.00” or more: 42% Mean 9/20-12/31 Precipitation: 14.12” Mean Annual Precipitation: 50.42” Since 1970, in conjunction with the observed warming, the climate has also grown wetter. Extreme wet outcomes have grown more common. This trend can be seen throughout the Northeast. Indeed, a disproportionate share of the 20 wettest years has occurred since 1970. Select data follows with the start of the climate record in parentheses: Albany (1874): 80% of the 20 wettest cases Bangor (1925): 60% of the 20 wettest cases Boston (1872): 40% of the 20 wettest cases Burlington (1884): 35% of the 20 wettest cases Caribou (1939): 90% of the 20 wettest cases Concord (1868): 35% of the 20 wettest cases Hartford (1905): 75% of the 20 wettest cases New York City (1869): 80% of the 20 wettest cases Newark (1931): 75% of the 20 wettest cases Philadelphia (1872): 50% of the 20 wettest cases Portland (1871): 70% of the 20 wettest cases Providence (1904): 65% of the 20 wettest cases Worcester (1892): 60% of the 20 wettest cases The following locations have seen at least 25% of their 20 wettest years occur 2000 or later: Albany, Burlington, Caribou, Concord, Hartford, New York City, Newark, Portland, and Providence. For New York City, the 20th highest annual figure is 53.79”. Based on the 1869-2017 data, the implied probability that 2018 will surpass that amount is 79%. Based on the wetter 1971-2017 period, the implied probability is 85%. Farther south, Baltimore has already registered its 17th highest annual precipitation amount. There remains a possibility that Baltimore will reach or exceed its record figure by year’s end. Wilmington, NC, which has already received 86.40” precipitation, boosted by Hurricane Florence, has eclipsed its old mark. In fact, that figure is among the highest on record in North Carolina. Only a few locations in North Carolina, including the following have seen higher amounts of precipitation in a year: Boone: 112.14”, 2013 Blowing Rock: 93.32”, 1992 Cape Hatteras: 90.84”, 1989 Coweeta Experimental Station (near Otto, NC): 93.92”, 2013 Grandfather Mountain: 89.12”, 1979 Highlands: 111.57”, 2013; Morehead City (2 WNW): 91.51”, 2003 New Bern (3 NW): 89.45”, 1908 Rosman: 126.73”, 1961 Southport (5 N): 89.79”, 1999 Tryon: 92.76”, 1979 Cape Hatteras, Morehead City (2 WNW), New Bern (3 NW), and Southport (5N), all of those locations are in the vicinity of the Appalachian Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 4 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Both the 00z & 06z GFS look pretty wet for next week. There is also a chance for severe weather on Friday. The timing of the front is late friday night, so I would think that would limit the severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: The timing of the front is late friday night, so I would think that would limit the severe potential. it's 8 days away, plenty can change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 70degs., or about 6degs AN. Month to date is +3.3[73.0]. Should be +4.1[72.2] by the 30th. (Site was down over two days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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