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July Discobs Thread


George BM
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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The blocking Atlantic ridge will begin to break down allowing the trough to the west to progress east tonight and tomorrow, so you should get some heavy rain there, especially tomorrow into Thursday morning.

It can’t happen soon enough. We are back under heavy returns. So far we’ve been fortunate here and have a lot of standing water in the yard, but the sump pump has handled the basement other than wall seepage that I took care of by breaking up the thin concrete over the French drain.

My friends and neighbors haven’t been so lucky. My next door neighbor had 3 feet of water in her basement yesterday when a gfi switch kicked and turned off her pump. And my friend down the street had her sump pump go on the fritz last night and was up all night keeping her finished basement semi dry with a vacuum. The plumber is there now as I type putting in a new floatless pump and replacing the battery on the backup.

But I’m clogging the thread. I want to hear npz complain some more.

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19 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

My next door neighbor had 3 feet of water in her basement yesterday when a gfi switch kicked and turned off her pump.

Just curious- was her house built after 2008? That’s when the building codes started requiring sump pumps to be on GFCI. We had the same problem last year- fortunately we caught it during a minor event. It could work in a normal outlet but the GFCI outlet would trip. In our case, it really was the pump going bad so I’m glad the GFCI caught it. But it’s been a hotly debated topic as many times people get nuisance tripping. I see both sides of the issue though.

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

Realizing that we have to get through this week before worrying about the next, I don't like seeing a stalled front and huge PWs in the GFS forecasts for early next week.

Yup... PW's over 2" return by Monday and both EURO and GFS show a large trough returning per LWX AFD... more flooding rains on the way

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not the rain down by RIC

Meso guidance has that RIC to NC stuff break apart and shooting offshore through the day.  There's a bit of re-development progged over Amelia Court House and Blackstone but otherwise it's dry over the next 18 hours:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?keys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runtime=2018072412&plot_type=totp_z4sfc&fcst=08&time_inc=60&num_times=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=z4&adtfn=1

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10 minutes ago, high risk said:

Realizing that we have to get through this week before worrying about the next, I don't like seeing a stalled front and huge PWs in the GFS forecasts for early next week.

The good news is that it seems like we are going to get a break that wasn't really expected several days ago, and it looks like a significant break at that. It looks like once we get through today, and definitely tomorrow, it's mostly dry for 3-4 days.

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7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Just curious- was her house built after 2008? That’s when the building codes started requiring sump pumps to be on GFCI. We had the same problem last year- fortunately we caught it during a minor event. It could work in a normal outlet but the GFCI outlet would trip. In our case, it really was the pump going bad so I’m glad the GFCI caught it. But it’s been a hotly debated topic as many times people get nuisance tripping. I see both sides of the issue though.

No, it's an older home like all the others in this hood. I think the problem is that she recently had an automatic generator installed which, ironically, is because she travels a lot and wanted to be sure that her basement would be safe if we ever lost power. So I think the new electric work messed her up. The company was over there again yesterday.

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3 minutes ago, mbusada said:

3.67 inches since 8:00 this morning in Lothian, MD. Total since 8:00 am Saturday 16.43”. Areas of our farm are flooded that have never been in the last 30 years. 

Ugh. And you may not get the break that we might get here later today.

Probably nothing compared to your problems, but this is my neighbors situation now. Her sump pumps cant can’t keep up.

0846AC41-D0C0-4EEC-8561-3EDC3C005281.thumb.jpeg.aab038ac7bb35e8c192697c9bec5f64c.jpeg

 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
953 AM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad and slow moving low pressure system over the Southeast
will influence the Mid Atlantic through the middle of the week.
A pair of cold fronts will move through the area during the
second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Plume of very deep moisture with PWs > 2.0 will remain over our
area through Wed keeping the risk of excessive rains very high atop
saturated ground and very high stream levels. Observed
precipitable water from 12Z RAOB was 2.32 in. Modified for
current forecast, we may be able to glean 1500-2000 j/kg SBCAPE.
That would depend upon some daytime heating, which means breaks
in the rainfall. SRH also around 100 m2/s2. So, a brief spin or
wet microburst possible, but almost impossible to say
when/where.

Current stream of moisture, manifesting in heavy rain, along the
western shore of the Chesapeake Bay at this time. This has been
modeled reasonably well in an ensemble sense. Recent CAMs and
NAM/GFS runs suggest that there may be a break/lull this
afternoon. Given the state of the atmosphere, don`t want to back
down much, but did ease 90-100 PoPs down to 70s and 80s. There
are also indications that another surge of precip may arrive at
some point tonight, but solutions vary and confidence in details
lower.
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EJ - it remains an absolute deluge in a large part of the area. I know you are only happy if there is untold death and destruction, but this has been an extremely well forecast and high impact event that has performed, I think, it is fair to say. Large parts of the LWX area over 8 inches or rain, and many 10 or more. The mid-range modeling picked up on this very well, I think. Not sure why your shtik, even as it does what it was supposed to do...

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3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Ugh. And you may not get the break that we might get here later today.

Probably nothing compared to your problems, but this is my neighbors situation now. Her sump pumps cant can’t keep up.

0846AC41-D0C0-4EEC-8561-3EDC3C005281.thumb.jpeg.aab038ac7bb35e8c192697c9bec5f64c.jpeg

 

That’s crazy. Seems like that big line of storms moving north is shifting a little east of me now. I hope we get a little break to give me time to finish building my ark. 

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8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Ugh. And you may not get the break that we might get here later today.

Probably nothing compared to your problems, but this is my neighbors situation now. Her sump pumps cant can’t keep up.

0846AC41-D0C0-4EEC-8561-3EDC3C005281.thumb.jpeg.aab038ac7bb35e8c192697c9bec5f64c.jpeg

 

But I heard someone say it wasn't raining enough.

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4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

EJ - it remains an absolute deluge in a large part of the area. I know you are only happy if there is untold death and destruction, but this has been an extremely well forecast and high impact event that has performed, I think, it is fair to say. Large parts of the LWX area over 8 inches or rain, and many 10 or more. The mid-range modeling picked up on this very well, I think. Not sure why your shtik, even as it does what it was supposed to do...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea the NJ, DE and MD/VA beaches lucked out.  Probably real humid down there though.

Near VA Beach -- we did luck out with a nice day on Sunday, and decent yesterday.  But, our luck has run out with steady rain and looking like no break today.  Roads around here are flooded.  Gonna be board games and beer today LOL.

 

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