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Tim from Springfield (IL)

May 1-4 Severe Threats

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Back to reality as far as severe weather is concerned (after a lull most of April due to the cold) as we turn the calendars to May.

Although KS is the center of today's main event, the slight risk does include most of the rest of IA and part of SW WI:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

All of S IA and N MO in an Enhanced tomorrow (w/ MOD including NW MO), with the Slight extending all the way to Chicago:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Thursday's Slight includes nearly all of IL and MO, and S IA:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

And the SPC is hinting at some severe possibilities not out of the question for the OV on Friday.

 

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I'll take the under on these dews tomorrow.   Lack of vegetation and dry ground make it even more unlikely.  I'd say low to maybe mid 60s would be more realistic.

namconus_Td2m_ncus_28.thumb.png.be9b27ef5f04d9d7c0a308c98080f718.png

 

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The removal of the warm frontal zone from the ENH on the latest D2 doesn't make a lot of sense to me, early convection notwithstanding.

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0314.html

 Mesoscale Discussion 0314
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0133 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

   Areas affected...parts of the eastern Iowa vicinity eastward across
   northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 021833Z - 022030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southeast
   Iowa area in the next 1-2 hours, and organize/spread eastward with
   time.  Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed, as hail/wind
   risk increases.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a surface boundary lying
   across west-southwest to east-northeast across southern and eastern
   Iowa and stretching into southern Wisconsin.  Ahead of the front,
   dewpoints are generally in the low 60s, with gradual heating ongoing
   through broken cloud cover.

   Isolated storms are expected to develop over the southeast Iowa
   vicinity by 20z, as mixed-layer CAPE increases to 1000 to 1500 J/kg
   across the area.  Gradual upscale development is expected, with a
   cluster or two of fast-moving storms -- aided by west-southwesterly
   mid-level flow in the 40 to 60 kt range.  Along with risk for large
   hail, locally damaging wind potential -- modulated by degree of
   linear evolution -- will also be possible.

   ..Goss/Grams.. 05/02/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...

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Still sitting here at home.  Thought I was gonna bite on this, but now considering staying put.  SRH looks horrible and won't get much better over the next few hours.

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Storms in northern/central IL should be outflow dominated for the most part as a svr watch is being considered by SPC.  I'm focusing on action in sw OK for this evening.

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could be a long night for me...or close to me(north).  looks like training cells now and will continue as  a WAA wing develops off that complex in central KS 

 

hailers at first..then a Tornado threat this evening in WAA wing action of what will be a MCS ......then a big bow later

 

 

 

 

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Or skirt north lol

You missed a good one. Strong gusts and hail. Had to pull over, had the pooch with me and he was freaking out


.
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50 minutes ago, King James said:


You missed a good one. Strong gusts and hail. Had to pull over, had the pooch with me and he was freaking out


.

Sounds like the Midway storm did some damage with winds/wind blown hail. Also an area of more significant damage near Bourbonnais. 

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Nice storm down here south of Madison.  Can’t see the rain guage very well yet but I’m going with .5 inches so far.

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Radar really lit up over the past hour or so. Looks like the area in between 80 and 20 are going to get trained for quite awhile. Tons of lightning with these storms

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39 minutes ago, Mogget said:

Nice storm down here south of Madison.  Can’t see the rain guage very well yet but I’m going with .5 inches so far.

That line is about to move through here.  I wasn't expecting anything potent, but these look like potential severe wind and hail producers (as evidenced by the golf ball size hail potential on the southern storm).

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Experiencing a borderline severe storm here in Cedarburg, WI. Some small hail, lots of lightning.  There’s been a constant roar/rumble for about 20 minutes now.

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00z CAMs are quite aggressive in the warm frontal zone tomorrow, in particular the NSSL WRF, which has quite a substantial amount of supercells across N MO and the southern half of IA (perhaps into W IL).

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25 minutes ago, andyhb said:

00z CAMs are quite aggressive in the warm frontal zone tomorrow, in particular the NSSL WRF, which has quite a substantial amount of supercells across N MO and the southern half of IA (perhaps into W IL).

Will be interesting to see how much instability we can build tomorrow.  Everything else looks in place for a pretty decent event over the areas you mentioned.  Strong dynamics should help make up for any lack of CAPE, but if we can build a substantial amount of that on top of the synoptics this could get pretty interesting.  Totally disagree with the midday day 2 in reducing the enhanced that was further north prior.

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