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Tim from Springfield (IL)

May 1-4 Severe Threats

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7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Will be interesting to see how much instability we can build tomorrow.  Everything else looks in place for a pretty decent event over the areas you mentioned.  Strong dynamics should help make up for any lack of CAPE, but if we can build a substantial amount of that on top of the synoptics this could get pretty interesting.  Totally disagree with the midday day 2 in reducing the enhanced that was further north prior.

Don't see low amplitude waves with 75-80 kt 500 mb maxes ejecting in May very often, climo would suggest a substantial event given widespread strong deep layer shear profiles and a pretty hefty LLJ.

Today, shear was an issue in the low levels in OK/KS at least early on (and also perhaps the relatively slow storm motions, as storm relative inflow tends to be weaker when this is the case), that should not be the case tomorrow. Would tend to think the more progressive nature of the setup tomorrow should partially mitigate the effects of antecedent convection, but we will see.

Also, there are almost certainly going to be OFBs leftover tomorrow morning by the current convection, could act as foci for new development or tornadogenesis.

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Worried about extent of morning convection potentially reinforcing boundary and pushing event down and out of IA into Northern Missery. If the morning convection is limited and the boundary is able to lift northward into Iowa, I'll see if I can make it down there, but I can really only hope to leave a 3pm at the earliest, which is kind of a late start unfortunately. But should everyone go right, things look nice. Expecting the SPC to bring the enhanced back over our area for damaging winds, but I'd personally leave the tornado at 5% for the 06z outlook and maybe even the 13z to see how the morning convection situation tends to sort itself out.

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Agree with you guys about tomorrow having potential.  Not sure about eastward extent but at least near/west of the Mississippi River should be good to go.

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The 10% went bye bye, and for pretty good reason. Latest CAMs don’t really have much going on in the instability dept m probably due to the MCS party that was going on down south overnight. Any storms that do form will have limited time on the WF. Probably gonna sit out unless observations give me a real good reason to go down there.

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Missed out on a severe warned storm back home yesterday, along with the other several rounds of storms and heavy rains yesterday and last night.

Instead I was chasing failure in the Plains...


.

  • Sad 1

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36 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Gotta say, I didn't see today going down the crapper to the extent that it has.  Wow.  Live and learn I guess.  

Yep me neither.

But such is the case over the past half dozen years for the most part.

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Some of this stuff in Iowa has tried to gain low topped/mini sup appearance with lowerings from time to time.

But not worth wasting time on.

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DMX is tor warning happy.

None of the storms currently tor warned have any couplet. All are outflow dom with weak wind sigs.


.

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Half decent severe set up for Southern Ontario this afternoon.

We could see a few pockets of 1000 J/kg CAPE build this afternoon under some partial clearing. Very strong LLJ will punch through with the cold front, in excess of 70 kts. Not so much turning in the winds, I suspect a largely linear storm mode but some embedded rotation could be possible (a few areas of 0-1KM 100-200 m2/s2 helicity values showing up on the NAM). LCL remains low at around 500 meters currently according to the mesoanalysis. Bulk shear in the range of 50-70kts will overlay the southern part of the province this afternoon. Severe wind gusts seem likely in the 50-60kt range.

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7 hours ago, harrisale said:

Half decent severe set up for Southern Ontario this afternoon.

We could see a few pockets of 1000 J/kg CAPE build this afternoon under some partial clearing. Very strong LLJ will punch through with the cold front, in excess of 70 kts. Not so much turning in the winds, I suspect a largely linear storm mode but some embedded rotation could be possible (a few areas of 0-1KM 100-200 m2/s2 helicity values showing up on the NAM). LCL remains low at around 500 meters currently according to the mesoanalysis. Bulk shear in the range of 50-70kts will overlay the southern part of the province this afternoon. Severe wind gusts seem likely in the 50-60kt range.

Well that verified and then some.

Gusts to hurricane force at both YHM and YYZ.

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There was a crazy storm that lasted under 10 minutes that blew through here Friday around 130pm with estimated winds 70 mph and a quick 0.20" rain. I did not see anything at my work, but Wyandotte was socked with some large uprooted trees and lots of power outages. My power was out about 12 hours. To see the trees uprooted was insane.

 

31949012_10110079461749673_3615728985620

 

31945238_10110079461819533_3593633303028

 

31543888_10110079462288593_6088024818190

 

31530608_10110079462418333_7525448736055

 

31911613_10110079462977213_4161081040691

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16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

There was a crazy storm that lasted under 10 minutes that blew through here Friday around 130pm with estimated winds 70 mph and a quick 0.20" rain. I did not see anything at my work, but Wyandotte was socked with some large uprooted trees and lots of power outages. My power was out about 12 hours. To see the trees uprooted was insane.

 

31949012_10110079461749673_3615728985620

 

31945238_10110079461819533_3593633303028

 

31543888_10110079462288593_6088024818190

 

31530608_10110079462418333_7525448736055

 

31911613_10110079462977213_4161081040691

Holy cow.

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43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

There was a crazy storm that lasted under 10 minutes that blew through here Friday around 130pm with estimated winds 70 mph and a quick 0.20" rain. I did not see anything at my work, but Wyandotte was socked with some large uprooted trees and lots of power outages. My power was out about 12 hours. To see the trees uprooted was insane.

 

31949012_10110079461749673_3615728985620

 

31945238_10110079461819533_3593633303028

 

31543888_10110079462288593_6088024818190

 

31530608_10110079462418333_7525448736055

 

31911613_10110079462977213_4161081040691

That's just insane. Brings back memories of about 3 years ago when a microburst hit here with similar damage.

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