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Eskimo Joe

Summer 2018 Mid/Long Range & Disco

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April is just about over and it's time to stark tracking the chance for our first 90 degree day.  Here's to a hot May.

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13 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

April is just about over and it's time to stark tracking the chance for our first 90 degree day.  Here's to a hot May.

It is time to start tracking our first 90 degree day, But here's to a SEASONAL May. July  and August will be plenty hot. No need to rush the sufferings of us poor folk lol

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April 20-May 15 +NAO will be the strongest 25-day highest since Nov-Dec 2015. I think this proves that the March 2018 -NAO / Stratosphere warming (MJO Phase 6 record) was artificial, on the heels of my letter to NOAA, and the climate in general is that controlled. DC record 500mb heights (3rd highest all time this early in the season (early May 586-587dm coming up)) same as record 500mb late Feb, just a split from general period Feb-May etc. Or climate is first in the midst of human chaos.. 

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Looks like a hideous ridge will be building up mid month. I couldn’t believe what I saw when I looked at the long range GFS. Mid 90s up into central Maine, possibly 100 in DC.

Congrats Subtropics.

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59 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Looks like a hideous ridge will be building up mid month. I couldn’t believe what I saw when I looked at the long range GFS. Mid 90s up into central Maine, possibly 100 in DC.

Congrats Subtropics.

:axe:

sfctapp.us_ne.thumb.png.f739e1a5fe293865696fee0855a8c620.png

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50 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

:axe:

sfctapp.us_ne.thumb.png.f739e1a5fe293865696fee0855a8c620.png

You knew the cool April would not go unanswered by mother nature.  That is why I couldn't understand why there were a few folks complaining about the "cool" spring weather.  We ALWAYS get our heat. Its one of the few things you can bank on for the MA.  But we had a good run of cool weather so its time I guess.   

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Just now, BristowWx said:

You knew the cool April would not go unanswered by mother nature.  That is why I couldn't understand why there were a few folks complaining about the "cool" spring weather.  We ALWAYS get our heat. Its one of the few things you can bank on for the MA.  But we had a good run of cool weather so its time I guess.   

Yeah, I agree with you. Maybe we use all of our heat up in the summer? Like Fozz said in the banter thread, 1995 and 2002 were hot summers. 

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29 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You knew the cool April would not go unanswered by mother nature.  That is why I couldn't understand why there were a few folks complaining about the "cool" spring weather.  We ALWAYS get our heat. Its one of the few things you can bank on for the MA.  But we had a good run of cool weather so its time I guess.   

The complaint is that we effectively go from cold to hot, without the buffer period of nice and warm days in between. Just as I wouldn't trade heat (which I love) for my April 70 and sun, I wouldn't trade cold for my October 70 and sun. 

At any rate, nothing we can do. I need to buy a grill. :P 

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1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

:axe:

sfctapp.us_ne.thumb.png.f739e1a5fe293865696fee0855a8c620.png

If this ends up being the October 2011 of heat waves, I’ll take it. Otherwise we could be in for a very long, hot summer.

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6 hours ago, Fozz said:

If this ends up being the October 2011 of heat waves, I’ll take it. Otherwise we could be in for a very long, hot summer.

:wub: :D

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20 hours ago, BristowWx said:

You knew the cool April would not go unanswered by mother nature.  That is why I couldn't understand why there were a few folks complaining about the "cool" spring weather.  We ALWAYS get our heat. Its one of the few things you can bank on for the MA.  But we had a good run of cool weather so its time I guess.   

I was complaining.  What I would love is a very warm April, like +10 departure, a normal May, and a -2 or -4 June.  That would be awesome.

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Agreed. Some people on here (maybe even a silent majority) I think just like warmth and seasonal temps in the spring. So much of the long range threads and discussion are spent chasing extremes, that mentioning that seasonal would be okay gets cast as complaining. In any event, no thanks to huge early heat, the same as no thanks to lingering cold.

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1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

warm one, probably above average Summer

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/t7loop.html

Notice how all the members have the OK/TX panhandle torching like mad.  Probably going to be a big drought out there this summer.  We might benefit from some ring of fire or a TC undercutting the ridge and sweeping up into VA/NC.  Either way my tomatoes will rejoin this year.

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Here's to hoping this summer is the 2002 to our 2003 :pepsi:

Obviously, long range nino predictions such, but here's to hoping.

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49 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Here's to hoping this summer is the 2002 to our 2003 :pepsi:

Obviously, long range nino predictions such, but here's to hoping.

Tropical weenies won't be happy to see the Carribean drought potential... but those that live down there will take it 

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6 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Here's to hoping this summer is the 2002 to our 2003 :pepsi:

Obviously, long range nino predictions such, but here's to hoping.

You've probably heard us talk about the spring barrier period for long range enso stuff but for those who haven't, spring is a notoriously terrible time for long range models to predict next season's enso conditions. Once we get into July, seasonal guidance gets much better at predicting trends and even then...lol. 

 

Take a look at April 17's plumes and verification. 

 

v5ABGkf.jpg

 

July got the trend right but the lead is still too long for magnitude. 

 

WpXyqtY.jpg

My total WAG is neutral and if it is, just hope for a +PDO. 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You've probably heard us talk about the spring barrier period for long range enso stuff but for those who haven't, spring is a notoriously terrible time for long range models to predict next season's enso conditions. Once we get into July, seasonal guidance gets much better at predicting trends and even then...lol. 

 

Take a look at April 17's plumes and verification. 

 

v5ABGkf.jpg

 

July got the trend right but the lead is still too long for magnitude. 

 

WpXyqtY.jpg

My total WAG is neutral and if it is, just hope for a +PDO. 

Yes, I see what you mean. Seems like Nino 3.4 hasn't been too eager to rise to neutral consistency yet. We play the waiting game

 

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So-called rain chances later this week, It'll warm up, get plenty humid, pollen will be choking me to death but the Infamous Dale City rain hole will continue unabated.

Of course the mountains got to enjoy showers from the trough, but we are high and dry with sunny skies and highs in the low 80s.

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Gefs could be suffering from follow the leader desease again like last season when the ensembles looked like mini me's of the op but a decent signal nonetheless for possible development of a storm in the day 10ish range.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_41.png

500 mb configuration doesn't look bad to me for some deep moisture to get pulled north from a weak or modest low. .

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_43.png

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