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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

LMAO...nice comeback.   Ya, most people don't really like the Humidity all too much....so I think he's probably incorrect that most people like the 3 H's.  I would gamble that those liking HHH are definitely in the minority overall.  Nothing wrong with liking it at all....just think that there are less of those who actually like it.

They are out there though...  it's probably actually in the 15th or 20th percentile (may be even more), so a minority preference, but I've been around long enough to know that there are those that like heat and humidity - 

but, therein, we can't even couch those statistics together because it comes down to a personal tolerance.   Said 15th or 20th percent may differ at 87 versus 93 ... 99 and so on.  

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Too late for me.  Although people st Mammoth ski on 7/4 in bathing suits.

The operational GFS just went banana hammocks with the extended...  has a 588 DM closed isopleth centered over the Del Marve, with 582 up to the St L. Seaway... 

I'll take the under and figure that gets normalized more likely than not (but not saying it can't happen with a chin scratch just the same...).  'Sides, ...being the GFS, it'll do that at mid levels and then snow at the surface :axe:

seriously ...it drives me to distraction how bad the GFS is with all BL parametrics ...regardless of season.  Be it 9 degree F DP depressions in the turbid froth of CCB/Comma Heads in winter, or 20 degree F gaps between tropospheric ridge events and the surface potential.. this model just got installed and an entire bank of algorithms set to resolve Eckman kinematics was bodily left out.  My hunch (and muah hahaha conspiracy theory ...) is that someone is so embarrassed that they hid that fact and ever since ... we are all looking at a model that has only lattice physics within 250 MB of the surface everywhere on the planet. 

Frustration aside...that model suck so sucky that it sucks worse than suckers so I'm not even going to look at the surface charts between 180 and 240 hours... Because the model is definitely wrong for two reasons: one, ...it's 180 to 240 hours... but two, in the best of times it's wrong. 

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I found a random forum that made a poll about humidity:

http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/1609899-whats-more-comfortable-low-humidity-high.html

 

Overwhelmingly people preferred low humidity. It matches our results fairly closely.

 

The general public generally views weather like this:

1. They like warm over cold

2. They prefer rain over snow

3. They prefer lower humidity over high humidity

It would be interesting to see a further breakdown of those 19 or so people to see how many say they think high humidity is "better", and where they live, and how much they actually access the humidity and are not locked up in air/ humidity controlled scenarios. ...and when they are saying this ...winter?  summer?  There are many other factors into actually "liking" high humidity, and when it comes to the northeastern states in the summer, high humidity usually means uncomfortable outdoor conditions, and  there's usually no if's and's or but's about it. 

I hardly ever look at humidity readings in the winter. I know it gets high, but it does not have the same effect on me in terms of comfort. 

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I found a random forum that made a poll about humidity:

http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/1609899-whats-more-comfortable-low-humidity-high.html

 

Overwhelmingly people preferred low humidity. It matches our results fairly closely.

 

The general public generally views weather like this:

1. They like warm over cold

2. They prefer rain over snow

3. They prefer lower humidity over high humidity

Yeah, I think that's the one that I posted a while back.  Seems like we discuss this every year or so.  The general public wants it warm but they don't want it humid...Check.

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Weatherexpert

Weatherexpert

Posted
Posted

Thank you everyone for the those your kind thougts....... I did take a hard fall yesterday when I slipped and cracked my head off of one of my concrete steps..... will be taking leave leave from work.... will view the forum as I heal.... my head.. also have been given some strong medications and I do not feel that I am all here.... thank you everyone beautiful day out there today..

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But then again, what is a 'torch'? It's an entirely subjective distinction. 

To me, it's relative to season.  I think a torch has to be +10 diurnal averages at a minimum by this time of spring...  Contrasting backwards, +5 would do it in January. Whereas more like 15 in July ...and of course, DPs and 'HI' notwithstanding on the latter. We can be 93/49 and that's a technically a torch but it's weak sauce circa July 10...  You need the DPs for the edge.  Anyway, +10 is like high of 83 low of 55 or so.. might be doable in that Euro D9/10 look.

I'd reverse those departures, as temps are far more variable in winter than in summer.  I've yet to see a day 20° AN or BN in met summer - it's happened at the Farmington co-op, but their 125-year record dwarfs my 20.  In met winter (plus March) I've had a handful of days 30°+ BN and 25°+ AN.  My average max in deep winter is 26-27, and so 31-32 doesn't feel torchy at all, but >40 is getting there.  My average midsummer max is 77, and 15° above that is only 1° from the hottest I've had here.  In my well-forested (thus transpirationally cooled) locale, 85 is torch enough for me.  I've had summers that never got there, and few that have hit that mark 10 times or more.  As you noted, it's entirely subjective.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not as good as EWB....all time monthly record set?

 

KEWB 240253Z AUTO 15003KT 10SM M18/M18 A3046 RMK AO2 SLP315 T11781183 51002 $

:lol: I saw the sensor dropped out last night with the -0 readings. But what's the difference with PVD nearly -5 for the month?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

If we can pull off 15C at H85 and everything goes right maybe a tarmac can make a run at it, but 80s are the more likely bet.

I'm more concerned about the rain tomorrow and this weekend. The NAM isgoing wild up here and my ground is still damp despite these 10% RHs.

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