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Rtd208

April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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Latest EPS weeklies will make the El Nino fans happy. Shift in the SOI to more negative with the potential for WWB's. Be interesting to see if this time can follow through and actually  achieve El Nino status. 

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Another great radiational cooling morning on Long Island. ISP has just recorded the 19th day in April with a low temperature under 40. This is the 4th highest number of days.

April lows under 40 at ISP

#1...22 days......1975...1972...1965

#2...21 days......1971...1968

#3...20 days......2003....1976....1967....1966

#4...19 days......2018....1992

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another great radiational cooling morning on Long Island. ISP has just recorded the 19th day in April with a low temperature under 40. This is the 4th highest number of days.

April lows under 40 at ISP

#1...22 days......1975...1972...1965

#2...21 days......1971...1968

#3...20 days......2003....1976....1967....1966

#4...19 days......2018....1992

..yeah another frosty morning out here(KFOK down to 25*..I'm @ 30*)..could this be the last one??..hopefully

it is..well, for April at least..but next weeks warmup will be a welcome change.

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10 hours ago, tim said:

..yeah another frosty morning out here(KFOK down to 25*..I'm @ 30*)..could this be the last one??..hopefully

it is..well, for April at least..but next weeks warmup will be a welcome change.

Certainly more spring-like weather for the start of May. Looks like LI will have a strong southerly flow off the water. More interior areas should at least reach the 80’s. But it will be cooler near the South Shore and East End. Maybe we can sneak in some brief milder offshore flow on one of the days.

 

ecmwf_t2max_12_nyc_37.thumb.png.6ba4f8c12008a8dcbd50cef55e6d330d.png

 

 

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The NAM in particular and to a lesser degree the GFS are signaling elevated convection tomorrow, with SSW flow at 925 advecting in some unstable air.  NAM is unsurprisingly stronger and further west with the convection.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I'll take that map and run with it.   After tomorrow looks like our best stretch of spring weather so far. 

Gfs has us in the 80s from May 1st through the end of its run. That's summer like weather. 

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Just now, Drz1111 said:

12Z NAM, particularly the nested NAM, shifted the convective signal out east, more Suffolk Co / ECT / RI than NYC.

caved to the other models which were well east all along.  

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

went from 2+ inches to about .5 to .75 in one run.  LOL

namconus_apcpn_neus_22.png

That's all NYC needs to go over 5.00" for the 3rd month in a row. Currently sitting at 4.45" for May. This would be the first 3 months in a row since late 2011.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That's all NYC needs to go over 5.00" for the 3rd month in a row. Currently sitting at 4.45" for May. This would be the first 3 months in a row since late 2011.

some models (GFS and NAM) showing some showers possible for Friday so if tomorrow busts, there is another chance Friday.  Interestingly the EURO has nothing at all for Friday.

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

some models (GFS and NAM) showing some showers possible for Friday so if tomorrow busts, there is another chance Friday.  Interestingly the EURO has nothing at all for Friday.

Some spots could overperform tomorrow with the elevated convection signal. 

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50 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z RGEM which did great with last weeks storm trended wetter and has 2-3" of rain in many spots with a convective signal.

Euro is dry-has .5 or less for most and .2 or less HV and Western CT.   Interesting battle shaping up.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro is dry-has .5 or less for most and .2 or less HV and Western CT.   Interesting battle shaping up.

Yeah we saw the same thing with the globals last storm, which all ended up busting terribly.

Convective potential along the warm front is often under modeled. 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah we saw the same thing with the globals last storm, which all ended up busting terribly.

Convective potential along the warm front is often under modeled. 

I would tend to agree there...

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18z GFS caught on to the WAA signal tomorrow morning. HRGEM, RGEM, Deep Thunder and RPM have all consistently painted 1-2” for the city. HRRRx looks primed too. Nice lapse rates advect in early with the low level warming on a 50kt LLJ so there should at least be heavy rainers and a few embedded thunderstorms. 

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37 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

18z GFS caught on to the WAA signal tomorrow morning. HRGEM, RGEM, Deep Thunder and RPM have all consistently painted 1-2” for the city. HRRRx looks primed too. Nice lapse rates advect in early with the low level warming on a 50kt LLJ so there should at least be heavy rainers and a few embedded thunderstorms. 

RGEM has a 4 inch jack just north of NYC

rgem_apcpn_neus_33.png

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