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Rtd208

April 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Just for giggles...point isn't to say this will happen, but to show potential of pattern (most of this for I-95 corridor is on 4/2)...

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

Looks great for Labrador. Prime snow season up there until mid April. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a couple inches, car and grass topper kind of deal. 950 temps are plenty cold in the trough 

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12 minutes ago, sferic said:

I want to hear what Anthony (Snow88) says, If he thinks the Canadian looks good then there is hope ! His optimism is contagious.

 AO and EPO falling to negative during the 1st week of april.

There is a chance of more snow during that week but as we know it's hard during April.

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3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Meanwhile 12z GFS is now showing the week of April 2nd as a fairly warm week. GFS really struggling the see the early April cold that other models have been showing.

The Gfs has been correcting cooler though over the past few days, I'd easily take the Euro/EPS this time given teleconnections. 

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Good chance of a storm next week with the PNA rising , NAO rising , AO and EPO tanking and then rising .

Archambault event

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With this 500 mb look, parts of the area can see more snow and temps reaching 32 or lower in early April.

eps_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.f654e569748cde7c5eca5ab6e44e83c6.png

 

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1 hour ago, sferic said:

What is a Archambault event  ?

As part of her graduate research, Heather Archambault postulated that you can make yourself sound smarter and more authoritative by supplanting your wishcasting with the phrase "Archambault event."

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3 hours ago, sferic said:

What is a Archambault event  ?

From her paper...

Results of the statistical analysis suggest that cool-season NE precipitation tends to be enhanced during positive-to-negative NAO and negative-to-positive PNA transitions, and suppressed during negative-to-positive NAO and positive-to-negative PNA transitions. Of the four types of regime transitions, only the positive-to-negative NAO transition is associated with substantially more frequent major cool-season NE precipitation events compared to climatology. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3362.1

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I should have never cancelled my stormvista subscription lol

 

Euro still has a nice setup for next week but the storm is well to our south and cold.

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I should have never cancelled my stormvista subscription lol

 

Euro still has a nice setup for next week but the storm is well to our south and cold.

Right where we need to be at this point.. 

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14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I should have never cancelled my stormvista subscription lol

 

Euro still has a nice setup for next week but the storm is well to our south and cold.

I'd be surprised if at least parts of our didn't see more measurable snow in the next 10 days.

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There is so much potential on the long range according to GFS and CMC for next week and up to the 12th or so. It's insane the pattern probably looks even better than March especially the fact that we have the good -NAO blocking that has the coldest air on earth just to our north southeast Canada to be exact. Yes the sun angle is an issue but what if the storm comes in at night. A lot of long night's ahead I thought we were done but both GFS and CMC have a huge storm just crossing the Rockies around hr 240 accompanied by a huge high 1040 range. Plenty of cold. Looks like my wish for a 36hrs snowfall may be alive!

Can't post pictures for some reason

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Nobody mentioned this for a reason probably but 18z ICON though crappy model shows a decent snow event Sunday’s night into Monday morning lol 1-3 areawide 

 

cmc had this shortwave late last week producing a few inches. Look above on top of this page. Cmc is usually good at showing a system than losing it and never really getting it back until log time. It’s happened a lot like this since the upgrade last year.

DF729246-E724-4B8F-A1B6-55F9A17D2BE8.png

DED98112-941C-4A51-906A-16BCEDBF367D.png

92366719-7505-4AA1-AF91-19B02336DCF3.png

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