rnaude241 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It would be amazing if the HRDPS run goes even bigger at 00z. If that verifies I'll eat my hat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 That southern s/w is stronger than modeled on the 18z GFS @ 0z. The Fripp, SC offshore buoy has it at 995mb @ 23z, while the GFS had it at 997mb @ 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Man 25 miles may make a huge difference...esp in SW/ south central Ct Places like New Haven to Fairfield and prolly just S of Danbury could have their own private blizzard w massive outages near the shore. Some modeling would indicate 8-12" prior to Boston seeing a flake Ne mass may see some decent lift after 1am for 4-6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct Hothh Metagraphica Wiz? Jc-Ct Winter wolf That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me But they are looking like tons of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct Hothh Metagraphica Wiz? Jc-Ct Winter wolf That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me But they are looking like tons of potential We feel same way about you folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct Hothh Metagraphica Wiz? Jc-Ct Winter wolf That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me But they are looking like tons of potential Yeah, but keeping expectations in check. Why are you thinking outages? Wet snow? I hope not. So many trees down or leaning around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We feel same way about you folks. Understandable Guidance is really struggling with which low and develops when and where it deepens. The ones that juice up and tuck the low crush you guys. But this looks like a crap shoot still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct Hothh Metagraphica Wiz? Jc-Ct Winter wolf That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me But they are looking like tons of potential I'm in the SW CT club as well. The furthest SW point in New England as a matter fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Who are the posters in SW ct / S Central ct Hothh Metagraphica Wiz? Jc-Ct Winter wolf That sw and s ct area usually seems as it's in another world to me But they are looking like tons of potential I'm down here in Newtown, right off of 84... I have only been here since 2015 so I missed all of the biggies prior. I have no complaints though, I came from an area near Dover DE that averaged maybe 15 inches per year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I feel like the euro ate it at 12z. Maybe we see a compromise, but I’m not in on that 2” of slush it has for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, but keeping expectations in check. Why are you thinking outages? Wet snow? I hope not. So many trees down or leaning around here. I think we could see more issues with downed trees/power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Yeah, but keeping expectations in check. Why are you thinking outages? Wet snow? I hope not. So many trees down or leaning around here. Not seeing super wet like last storm. Wet enough to make snowballs and throw them at my neighbors cat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, but keeping expectations in check. Why are you thinking outages? Wet snow? I hope not. So many trees down or leaning around here. Driving around Trumbull it is amazing at the tree damage that is evident. I think there are a lot of compromised trees as well that may get finished off in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 That heavier convection down in NC and offshore is further W than depicted at 0z on GFS @ 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think we could see more issues with downed trees/power outages Ugh, I had not considered that aspect, despite the date. Figured we'd be in the mid-twenties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, cut said: Driving around Trumbull it is amazing at the tree damage that is evident. I think there are a lot of compromised trees as well that may get finished off in this storm. Yea, that area took it on the chin and this could knockem out. Esp if the winds come inland a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, cut said: Driving around Trumbull it is amazing at the tree damage that is evident. I think there are a lot of compromised trees as well that may get finished off in this storm. Yeah, the white pines would be in trouble. Lots have long cracks evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 When i actually think about it (.000001%) Of the time. SW ct folks aren't all that bad. They are like the red headed step children of the subforum, just because of their location relative to the populous that posts. Im really hoping they get spanked silly and get deformed this storm. Maybe some 20: loli's. OKX is dropping back and chucken em, how about a f'n completion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like the euro ate it at 12z. Maybe we see a compromise, but I’m not in on that 2” of slush it has for most of the area. Really tough forecast for our area... I don't think the coked out 18z HRPDS run has enough backing at the moment... and hard to ignore steady trends over 3-4 cycles in 3 models including our best guidance arguing against the foot+ scenarios... I think some compromise 4-8/6-10 is about right, but I'll be more confident after the 0z suite. Fwiw... radar returns (though probably mostly virga with tons of dry air) at 0z are kissing the LI fork and southcoast islands... Euro was much further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This is such an ugly forecast. The conflicting model trends...not just the solutions themselves. I still think a decent amount of SNE is going to be in a favorable banding spot at some point during the storm. Hoping that 00z provides some model convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like the euro ate it at 12z. Maybe we see a compromise, but I’m not in on that 2” of slush it has for most of the area. Pickles buys it. It’s going down badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Really tough forecast for our area... I don't think the coked out 18z HRPDS run has enough backing at the moment... and hard to ignore steady trends over 3-4 cycles in 3 models including our best guidance arguing against the foot+ scenarios... I think some compromise 4-8/6-10 is about right, but I'll be more confident after the 0z suite. Fwiw... radar returns (though probably mostly virga with tons of dry air) at 0z are kissing the LI fork and southcoast islands... Euro was much further south Euro was awful on the SE convection like we mentioned. Compare it to what is reality. It’s why it was so flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: When i actually think about it (.000001%) Of the time. SW ct folks aren't all that bad. They are like the red headed step children of the subforum, just because of their location relative to the populous that posts. Im really hoping they get spanked silly and get their's this storm. Maybe some 20: loli's. OKX is dropping back and chucken em, how about a f'n completion We love your city, I actually prefer it with my family over nyc. Your people though....can be obnoxious, especially when the Pats have a parade and they yell, “Yankees suck”. Very odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Pickles buys it. It’s going down badly I disagree. I hope I’m wrong, but I think that 12z run is what we wind up with. The post you made about convection def is worth watching though. In any case, I think that I will be on the outside looking in. As you posted a couple of days ago, primarily a Pike South event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Everyone will quickly drop into the upper 20’s tomorrow evening. So maybe the far S coast sees a few hours of wetter snow. Temps aloft are cold. There won’t be much in the way of power issues in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: When i actually think about it (.000001%) Of the time. SW ct folks aren't all that bad. They are like the red headed step children of the subforum, just because of their location relative to the populous that posts. Im really hoping they get spanked silly and get deformed this storm. Maybe some 20: loli's. OKX is dropping back and chucken em, how about a f'n completion! I don't think we've had a 20 spot IMBY since 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is such an ugly forecast. The conflicting model trends...not just the solutions themselves. I still think a decent amount of SNE is going to be in a favorable banding spot at some point during the storm. Hoping that 00z provides some model convergence. Sure is. I just posted this on my professional Facebook page. Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan added 3 new photos. 6 mins · This is one of the hardest forecasts prior to a storm I can remember. This afternoon our most reliable models, the European, pulled the rug out from under the storm keeping the low to the south and leaving very dry air in place over Connecticut. The European has 1" of snow at Bradley and 4" of snow in New Haven. The European Ensembles agree! The European model is run 50 different times as lower resolution with slightly different tweaks to produce a range of possible solutions. The odds of >3" of snow on the Euro Ensembles are VERY low - only about 1 in 5 in Hartford and 50% in southeastern Connecticut. The new GFS and the new NAM, on the other hand, are extremely bullish with widespread amounts over a foot. All of these solutions seem plausible for various reasons. I see pros and cons on either either. I have nodded toward the more bearish European/European Ensembles given their track record. I would be lying if I said I wasn't really surprised when the GFS and NAM with such wildly snow solutions earlier today. Of course, they came out after I changed our snow map this afternoon - daylight saving time kills us! So, bottom line, be prepared for additional changes. I know people will be annoyed and I'm sure the Facebook haters will be out in droves This is a really tough call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, metagraphica said: I don't think we've had a 20 spot IMBY since 2013. 2011 here...but it has happened nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RPM continues to ramp up. Earlier it had nothing in NW CT to ALB. Obviously this is only showing that area in this snapshot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pickles buys it. It’s going down badly I believe its overdone. I like 3-6" 128 into s nh 5-10 Bos/se mass / ri (nw of uuu) 6-12 Gimxy to you to Hfd / lichfield Cty (Less N) 8-15 From 95 to 20 miles inland (ct) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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