I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Ji]

Lol euro mostly frozen event for us

[Ji]

Don't look at hour 57 nam

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Lol euro mostly frozen event for us

EPS kinda likes mid-late next week, especially out your way.

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Don't look at hour 57 nam

Start another thread?

Sneaky little shortwave. Maybe it can hold together a bit. Looks like it will get flattened by the southward displaced 50/50 vortex as it moves east though.

[Ji]

EPS kinda likes mid-late next week, especially out your way.

We kind of all panicked yesterday after models crapped the bed but there was enough spread out there to keep us in the game lol

[Ji]

Start another thread?
Sneaky little shortwave. Maybe it can hold together a bit. Looks like it will get flattened by the southward displaced 50/50 vortex as it moves east though.

That one has been inching its way slowly more favorable. Start the thread man...ha

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS kinda likes mid-late next week, especially out your way.

We kind of all panicked yesterday after models crapped the bed but there was enough spread out there to keep us in the game lol

Maybe. I didn't dissect the Euro , but its pretty much a completely different evolution on the GFS. Nothing like what we originally signed up for. Another iteration...as long is it snows, lol.

[Scraff]

Euro was kinda of a mish mash and still evolving? I’m diggin where the EPS is trending. No pun intended. 

[H2O]

This thread needs to keep all threats in it.  Its one after another after another on the 6z so lets keep the magic bottled up into this magical thread.

One could say that we should call this thread the

[Interstate]

Doesn't matter about the track if there is no cold to tap.

[Scraff]

Next week will be pure winter...

eta: It’s no mistake Mr. Henning sports a unicorn shirt. LOLz 

[dallen7908]

As of 00 UT Wednesday, the big-3 operational models (UKMET, Euro, GFS) show healthy primary lows over southwest Ohio, southwest Ohio, and southwest Pennsylvania with secondaries forming at the mouth of the Bay, off of Hatteras, or in south-central VA.  Certainly a much more encouraging sight than what we saw just a few model cycles ago. 

Verbatim UKMET and GFS look to be rain but could end as snow.  Wintry mix from Euro and also CMC. 

[poolz1]

EPS meteogram for FDK.  A nice increase from 12z and even a little bump for Sat showing up.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

Doesn't matter about the track if there is no cold to tap.

I am not convinced this can work out if it happens later/blocking breaks down sooner/ the 50-50 low jettisons. NA looks very mediocre on the GFS now for the threat window, but it pumps a big western ridge at the perfect time and in a good location. We will see how that evolves. My guess is this still ends up a fail, but might as well keep tracking.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS kinda likes mid-late next week, especially out your way.

We kind of all panicked yesterday after models crapped the bed but there was enough spread out there to keep us in the game lol

You should adopt my "its always gonna suck" view. Assume every year will be 2002 and every storm will be Boxing Day. It's not morbid. It's why I don't go crazy tracking. When it fails that's the status quo. No big deal. But when we finally get a fluke hit in a bad year or a big year comes along...then I appreciate it even more. Otherwise your on an emotional roller coaster all the time with every run. 

 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

You should adopt my "its always gonna suck" view. Assume every year will be 2002 and every storm will be Boxing Day. It's not morbid. It's why I don't go crazy tracking. When it fails that's the status quo. No big deal. But when we finally get a fluke hit in a bad year or a big year comes along...then I appreciate it even more. Otherwise your on an emotional roller coaster all the time with every run. 

 

I am not at all emotionally invested. Just rolling with it. Given the history/tendency of this winter(and NINA in general), you have to approach this expecting failure.

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS kinda likes mid-late next week, especially out your way.

We kind of all panicked yesterday after models crapped the bed but there was enough spread out there to keep us in the game lol

I didn't panic at all. Mid range is like a good science fiction book where it might be true but it's too far in the future to believe. Short range is more like a scientific journal. I'll reserve my investment for the journal.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Doesn't matter about the track if there is no cold to tap.

Wut? Coldest air in N America is sitting just to the N over E and SE with 1030ish HP thanks to confluence and the NAO ridge.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I am not at all emotionally invested. Just rolling with it. Given the history/tendency of this winter(and NINA in general), you have to approach this expecting failure.

Im less than thrilled based on Nina as u said but also the late March climo (NW areas favored) and more importantly this is a marginal looking event on guidance. If there was guidance that was honking and showing SECS/MECS consistently I might bite, but hoping we can manage a favorable trend without substantial support on guidance right now is setting up for failure.......so Im with you.....brace for the worst, hope for the best. Expectations tempered for I95 SE for now.

[nj2va]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am not at all emotionally invested. Just rolling with it. Given the history/tendency of this winter(and NINA in general), you have to approach this expecting failure.

Im less than thrilled based on Nina as u said but also the late March climo (NW areas favored) and more importantly this is a marginal looking event on guidance. If there was guidance that was honking and showing SECS/MECS consistently I might bite, but hoping we can manage a favorable trend without substantial support on guidance right now is setting up for failure.......so Im with you.....brace for the worst, hope for the best. Expectations tempered for I95 SE for now.

Perfectly said.  I’m more interested and invested in finally winning my office bracket...which is certainly setting myself up for failure and disappointment.  

[showmethesnow]

33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am not at all emotionally invested. Just rolling with it. Given the history/tendency of this winter(and NINA in general), you have to approach this expecting failure.

Our odds on this window went down substantially when the models starting picking up on the blocking breaking down quicker and the 50/50 jettisoning. Not only do we now have to count on some major gymnastics on the part of the pv to run sheppard on our low running east, suppressing it, we also now have to find some more cold. If I recall correctly a -NAO during the spring is actually a cold anomalous pattern (correct me if I am wrong) and we were originally seeing that when the blocking was holding. Now that we are losing that on the models we are also now losing the colder temps we were originally seeing. Would not be surprised if temps continue to warm on future runs as the models play catch-up to the breakdown. At this point I do like some of the things I see on the models so I wouldn't rule anything out, especially N/W of the cities, but I would much rather have the look we had on the EPS a couple of days ago. Guess we just watch and see how the models evolve with this because it doesn't look like they are finished quite yet.

[North Balti Zen]

If this is gonna be a thing for Tues/Wed, I think the models will shift to it today. The players will be arriving on the field shortly.

[87storms]

Definitely a trough-y/coastal-y look on the 6z but will need some significant help from Canada or its gonna be sloppy.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Maybe. I didn't dissect the Euro , but its pretty much a completely different evolution on the GFS. Nothing like what we originally signed up for. Another iteration...as long is it snows, lol.

The guidance is still resolving the details of the evolution but the overall gist of this isnt all that dissimilar from many of the systems this year.  The initial wave runs out ahead of its upper level support and then weakens, then the northern stream dives in behind and develops a more amplified dynamic system.  The only difference is the location of where all that happens this time.  The initial wave is coming across right at our latitude vs to our south...of course that could change.  Then the NS wants to dive in to our west and amplify something off the mid atlantic instead of way out to our east and up into New England.  That also could change but I will say by this point in all the previous fails that evolution of the NS diving in on top of us or to our east was showing.  This time all the globals are wanting to dive the northern stream into the ohio valley far enough west that the next amplification wave happens in a decent spot.   There is obviously something inherent in the larger scale pattern that lends itself to this kind of evolution since its been happening over and over and over again. 

As for the specifics of THIS setup I will say if this was January or February I would be really optimistic right now.  Removed from the issues of late March this is the best setup with the trough axis diving in west of us and enough blocking...(not too much) to get amplification.  BUT its not winter its spring and my worry is this is just too late.  The initial wave just doesn't have any cold.  Perfect track and still might be too warm with the WAA precip.  Then we are relying on a perfect redevelopment and those are tricky plus even if it does unless we get a precip bomb its going to struggle to get cold enough in the boundary layer to accumulate much.  So this is the type of thing where even if it would have been a 12" storm in January could end up a 1-2" slop fest in late March..or even worse.  

As for the fuss about the 50/50 breakdown there was one really awful model cycle yesterday that did that...but I actually think it wasnt THAT far from what we need...these setups are never as easy as we act even with blocking... and its since improved.  But I read some of the comments on here first then when I looked at the overnight stuff this morning I was a bit shocked that the look up top was better then expected imo.  We don't want or need the 50/50 still there once the trough axis is along the east coast...then it can't amplify.  We want it there as the next wave is approaching to prevent it from amplifying too far west and cutting.  Once the trough axis is to about the Ohio Valley we want that 50/50 moving out and ridging to develop ahead of the system so it can then start to amplify along the east coast.  That is what I see honestly.  The issue in front is its late March and cold just isnt gonna come easy so that WAA wave that runs out ahead is going to struggle.  I wouldn't sleep on it because its 2-3 degrees from being a thump snow but its going to be tough this late.  Almost ALL the late season snows from March 20 on in this area come from dynamic systems with an amplified system along the coast and we get CCB'd.  WAA is hard to pull off this late.  It CAN happen like St Patty's day 2014 but that was a once in a lifetime type thing.  Below I have the GEFS and EPS...and what I was seeing and why I don't mind the look up top.  

So as the trough is approaching the 50/50 is holding...the one lobe has rotated north but its a pinwheel with another lope swinging around still suppressing the flow behind just like we need.   Generally heights are still low all to our northeast and being held down along the east coast preventing ridging too soon ahead of the approaching wave from the west.  The ridging over greenland still looks good.  We have a pretty classic red over blue look there in the NAO space... its pretty classic IMO.  Honestly if it were anytime in actual WINTER...and NOT a nina...I would be really excited about this look.  Given those 2 factors though I am tempered in my expectations and expect it to find a way to fail.  But these plots below are pretty classic looks for a snowstorm in our area and its not that long range anymore.  

24 hours later we see the both the blocking and the 50/50 moving out just as the wave is at the ohio valley.  This is actually about when we want it.  At this point we need heights to start to come up ahead of the system so it can amplify as it gets east of our longitude.  The EPS looks a bit better...the GEFS might be breaking down a slight bit too fast but its still not a bad look.  

Finally 24 hours later the blocking and 50/50 are gone and we have ridging out ahead but it doesn't matter they have done their job.  The trough axis is at our longitude and the h5 has been forced to dig under us.  At that point we want it to amplify.  

 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Our odds on this window went down substantially when the models starting picking up on the blocking breaking down quicker and the 50/50 jettisoning. Not only do we now have to count on some major gymnastics on the part of the pv to run sheppard on our low running east, suppressing it, we also now have to find some more cold. If I recall correctly a -NAO during the spring is actually a cold anomalous pattern (correct me if I am wrong) and we were originally seeing that when the blocking was holding. Now that we are losing that on the models we are also now losing the colder temps we were originally seeing. Would not be surprised if temps continue to warm on future runs as the models play catch-up to the breakdown. At this point I do like some of the things I see on the models so I wouldn't rule anything out, especially N/W of the cities, but I would much rather have the look we had on the EPS a couple of days ago. Guess we just watch and see how the models evolve with this because it doesn't look like they are finished quite yet.

I think we are in complete agreement on this.

[stormtracker]

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Our odds on this window went down substantially when the models starting picking up on the blocking breaking down quicker and the 50/50 jettisoning. Not only do we now have to count on some major gymnastics on the part of the pv to run sheppard on our low running east, suppressing it, we also now have to find some more cold. If I recall correctly a -NAO during the spring is actually a cold anomalous pattern (correct me if I am wrong) and we were originally seeing that when the blocking was holding. Now that we are losing that on the models we are also now losing the colder temps we were originally seeing. Would not be surprised if temps continue to warm on future runs as the models play catch-up to the breakdown. At this point I do like some of the things I see on the models so I wouldn't rule anything out, especially N/W of the cities, but I would much rather have the look we had on the EPS a couple of days ago. Guess we just watch and see how the models evolve with this because it doesn't look like they are finished quite yet.

Maybe I am wrong... I have been plenty before...but take a look at the plots I posted from the overnight runs.  I though the look was fine if not really good actually.  The problem is were talking post March 20th now.  All the stuff I was picking on people for bringing up in Feb and early March is now true.  Were fighting a losing battle with climo now.  Its REALLY hard to get enough cold in front of a system for WAA to work at this point.  It would take a truly arctic airmass.  We just don't have that.  The back side can still work out if we get lucky and something bombs off the the VA capes but that is not something to hang our hat on 5 days out.  But I don't see any major flaw in the h5 setup of the storm, if this was winter I would be thrilled with this look right now.  

[CAPE]

Nice post @psuhoffman.

Of course ultimately we are looking at what the models are advertising with our own yards in mind. Given the time of year and my location, I preferred the look we saw a few days ago- a somewhat more suppressed solution with the block relaxing and the 50-50 low on the move, but still hanging on. What is currently being advertised might work, especially out your way, but things would have to break just right. For I-95 and east its much more precarious. In any case there still is some potential, and it looks interesting enough, so I will continue tracking.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am not at all emotionally invested. Just rolling with it. Given the history/tendency of this winter(and NINA in general), you have to approach this expecting failure.

That definitely wasn't directed at you. You are very level headed about all this.  But SOME seem to get way too high then way too low with ever good/bad model run.  They need to find some kind of equilibrium.  Not only for their well being but for their ability to see these setups clearly and not jump from extreme to extreme with every blip on the day 7 progs.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That definitely wasn't directed at you. You are very level headed about all this.  But SOME seem to get way too high then way too low with ever good/bad model run.  They need to find some kind of equilibrium.  Not only for their well being but for their ability to see these setups clearly and not jump from extreme to extreme with every blip on the day 7 progs.  

Oh I know, lol. I was basically just agreeing with your post.