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Typhoon Tip

March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hr 72

 

21 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'll go ahead and retract my previous statement. The JMA is dead nuts on the benchmark.

jma benchmark.jpg

 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie always gets drunk sometimes. I would not worry unless euro jumped.

Which I would be shocked if it did ... not that you suggest otherwise.  Seeing the GEFs do that really is too much weight, and though we give the American side crap that much weight is not likely to be "that" bad in this case.

It certainly would be interesting if the Euro did that and went even more incongruously seaward .. but my hunch is it's coming -

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20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ukie went pretty Far East from 00z. Not exactly what you wanted to see.

That’s almost a direct quote you made regarding a storm that hit hard recently.

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s almost a direct quote you made regarding a storm that hit hard recently.

Eh. People are going to jump on me for whatever I say. It’s been the one model consistently showing a good hit. Not thrilled that it’s suddenly not doing that. Nothing else.

glad other guidance looks better though. 

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

That’s almost a direct quote you made regarding a storm that hit hard recently.

He has 130% of not what you want to see climo.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Eh. People are going to jump on me for whatever I say. It’s been the one model consistently showing a good hit. Not thrilled that it’s suddenly not doing that. Nothing else.

I actually wasn’t jumping on you but marveling ab It how uncle does this often and you jumped on it the last time it did with almost the same statement.

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie always gets drunk sometimes. I would not worry unless euro jumped.

UK total precip, would be good enough for me.

20180310_122550.png

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s just an act to attract atention 

 

Mmm yes ... and we'll leave up to your unique talents to hone in on that sort of antic -

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

UK total precip, would be good enough for me.

20180310_122550.png Cape cod is right on the cusp of huge QPF numbers even with the Ukie so Far East  

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Only 'cause it's come up ...the JMA.  In terms of magnitude of correction across two consecutive cycles, this models variation is nothing shy of astounding... Man... utter pancake flatness to wind destructive, choking snow bomb in a single run must take some seriously wonderful tasting ingest into the grids.  What in the hell did that model sample!? ...

The GEFs are really only correcting about 6 DAM deeper at 500 mb, while, ...correcting the surface low some 100 or so mile W at 78 hours comparative to prior run. But, what is intriguing is that impression of more proficient actual capture by the N/stream.  That's about 70% phased there ...which is fascinating getting the weight of all those members to that mean, when the operational version is still trying to evade said capture at least excuse ... I am not sure if that's a proverbial 'red flag' ..but it sure as hell is akin to that creepy sensation that something isn't right when walking down street.

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Rail all you want on TB but the post was accurate as it related to the Ukie.  That’s a garage relavent solution to other 12z guidance.  Mundane MEH solution.

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We only tease him, but the Ukie feels like the ICON to me in that 3-5 day period. It always has wide swings. In this last event in the final 24-36 hrs, it remained close to the euro which is why some of us spoke about not biting into a huge shift west like the GFS and NAM had,

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Rail all you want on TB but the post was accurate as it related to the Ukie.  That’s a garage relavent solution to other 12z guidance.  Mundane MEH solution.

I don’t feel I was railing on him.  I just pointed it the almost direct quote in th runup of a prior system.   No one is saying uncle is a nice solution other than Steve and only half heartedly.

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