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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No caution flags from anyone tonight. Apparently nothing can go wrong. 

Two storms ago we were all waiting for the rain to turn to snow.  It never happened down here.  Those waiting now for a major change for the worse (much less snow) will also be disappointed.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Couldn't have said it better myself. And how appropriate would it be for this thing to cleanly phase on the 25th and 130th anniversary of two of the greatest such occurrences in the annals.

Well ... I put some "if" like conditional statements in that...  I'm not exactly saying that is what is going to happen... It's just that the present observations seem to match the west correction schemes, which in them selves bear well against theoretical thinking...

It never sat well with me that the low was getting foisted so far out toward the outer banks, with that N/stream mechanics already intermingling with the total vorticity field... Phasing lows "spitting" them back out ...heh... odd.   Maybe -

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

The only thing I can see is that the DGZ gets a little higher up in ern areas.  But it's tremendous lift just below it. I feel like central and wrn MA will fluff their way to big numbers.

Nice to be able to see that on tropical tidbits. Noticed same thing. But don't know enough about cross sections yet to really say much. 

This is now like the first time I studied skew t's lol.

Is there anywhere to get euro skew t's?

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No caution flags from anyone tonight. Apparently nothing can go wrong. 

I always struggle getting the right feel with these events that get the majority of the board super excited, but don't impact up here as much.  Hard not to get worked up along with everyone else.   Do you feel good about 8-16" range the local pros are going with?

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... I put some "if" like conditional statements in that...  I'm not exactly saying that is what is going to happen... It's just that the present observations seem to match the west correction schemes, which in them selves bear well against theoretical thinking...

It never sat well with me that the low was getting foisted so far out toward the outer banks, with that N/stream mechanics already intermingling with the total vorticity field... Phasing lows "spitting" them back out ...heh... odd.   Maybe -

Sure, sure, the usual caveats apply. But its present behavior does seem well aligned with your expectations.

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The Graupler

The Graupler

Posted
Posted

Looks bad... lots of people will lose power with temps plunging into the 20's.  good chance for severe property damage for people still recovering from the last two nor'easters.

 

Flooding, potential burst pipes, lots of people will miss work, driving will be impossible, people wont be able to get medical help.

 

But hey.. SNOW PACK!!!!

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

Just got out of NYC and on way back to NH (just in time). Looking over models while sitting at this gas station, a “safe” forecast for SE NH would be 14-20”. However, can’t rule out 24” lollis around here and especially to south of us. Will post more in the morning because I got to finish this drive.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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1 minute ago, The Graupler said:

Looks bad... lots of people will lose power with temps plunging into the 20's.  good chance for severe property damage for people still recovering from the last two nor'easters.

 

Flooding, potential burst pipes, lots of people will miss work, driving will be impossible, people wont be able to get medical help.

 

But hey.. SNOW PACK!!!!

The People's deformation band.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
Just now, bobbutts said:

I always struggle getting the right feel with these events that get the majority of the board super excited, but don't impact up here as much.  Hard not to get worked up along with everyone else.   Do you feel good about 8-16" range the local pros are going with?

I feel good about it. We’re sorta on the edge of that CCB so the stakes are high with a fine line between some sustained subsidence and 2-4”/hr. I’m leaning 14.2” +/- 2” for CON with my bet with my coworker. 

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Semper911

Semper911

Posted
Posted

Tweets from James:

Quote

I might be considered insane for saying this, but what if the 18z GFS max zone of 40-60" is not that far off from happening

New Englanders living from Cape Ann to Cape Cod, we are in for one heckuva blizzard, perhaps legendary by the latest guidance and if the next GFS run comes out with 4-6" of PRECIP over Cape and Islands, you can verify that a historic storm is underway as we haven't had more than

35" in a single storm, this one might top that easily in a 21 hour period as snowfall rates will reach 2-4"/hour for at least the 12 hours to start the storm and a wicked comma head hits the area head on, hurricane force wind gusts likely now

 

 

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HullMA

HullMA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This one might not be so common for some

 

True. I just cant help but feel like theyre getting bigger, badder and more frequent. Maybe im just more aware now that im creeping up on 30. 
 

Common was a bit of an overstatement :weenie:

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