March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[scoob40]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I'll watch trends today in the meso's but I'll go with 4-6" here.  Need 6" to climb over my seasonal average.  

Need 8 to climb over mine which is 49". Feel that I've got a shot at it anyways.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

3 feet for the cape on that

Looks like Jan 2005.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie qpf for the queens

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I need 9.5" for average...feel good about that.

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Looks like 6z BTV WRF jackpots Plymouth, Taunton, Falmouth, Brockton, Canal areas.

Hard to read but looks good for eastern Mass on the BTV4.

Some incredible QPF in the mountains, too.  Even cut in half would be big.  Fun week for all.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You will do anything that you can do to lower your own expectations. It’s really cuteYou will do anything that you can do to lower your own expectations. It’s really cute

OK, I get your point, no need to repeat yourself now. 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie qpf for the queens

 

Can't help but ask... anything after 12z Thursday?  I'd assume its still in progress to some extent up in the mountains but maybe only another .1-.25".  Resolution looks like it would leave something to be desired though in an orographic situation.

[ORH_wxman]

The general trend has def been to push the critical midlevel features a little NW at 12z today...even the shorter term guidance has been nudging west further south before the models get into clown range where they are unreliable. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

3 feet for the cape on that

Full fledged blizzard w 70mph Winds and feet Inner cape. Just a footnote

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like Jan 2005.

That was a top 5 for me in Cambridge, maybe even top 3.  Hope it buries James and Diane, they have been patient! 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I need 9.5" for average...feel good about that.

From what I've seen, banding in your area or TOL/ORH.  Some impressive fronto plots over the eastern half of Mass depending on the run.  I think it'll be west of BOS proper though but who knows.  That's what I would lean towards.

[JC-CT]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The deeper and more wound up this ends up probably means a slight cut in QPF in WNE as precip shield tightens?

It usually works like that, but not sure this time it applies because the wound up solutions are due to phasing.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Full fledged blizzard w 70mph Winds and feet Inner cape. Just a footnote

My family has a place in Falmouth but wife won't let me chase.  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Can't help but ask... anything after 12z Thursday?  I'd assume its still in progress to some extent up in the mountains but maybe only another .1-.25".  Resolution looks like it would leave something to be desired though in an orographic situation.

Ukie qpf on that site doesn't go past 72 hours. You'll have to ask ginxy to post one of the weather.us maps. 

The fact these lower resolution models are still showing big upslope has to be a pretty awesome sight for your eyes...seems like a classic setup. It looks so good that you'd prob get actual responses from the IMBY SNE crowd if there wasn't an imminent blizzard. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, JC-CT said:

It usually works like that, but not sure this time it applies because the wound up solutions are due to phasing.

The ukie certainly spreads that qpf far and wide. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hard to read but looks good for eastern Mass on the BTV4.

Some incredible QPF in the mountains, too.  Even cut in half would be big.  Fun week for all.

Nice wiener around here 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

From what I've seen, banding in your area or TOL/ORH.  Some impressive fronto plots over the eastern half of Mass depending on the run.

My outlook is going to bust in se MA...wow.

Happy, though.

[J Paul Gordon]

Okay, so I'll ask.

HMIMBY? Worcester east side... will give address to get a more precise (in hundredths of an  inch) forecast.

[tunafish]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The general trend has def been to push the critical midlevel features a little NW at 12z today...even the shorter term guidance has been nudging west further south before the models get into clown range where they are unreliable. 

 

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

From what I've seen, banding in your area or TOL/ORH.  Some impressive fronto plots over the eastern half of Mass depending on the run.  I think it'll be west of BOS proper though but who knows.  That's what I would lean towards.

 

IMBY question.... How far N&W do those features appear to make it?  Into coastal Maine or are they limited to SNE?

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, DomNH said:

What is the HREF? SREF replacement?

More of an NCAR ensemble replacement 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Like to find me a ukie chap..spread my bum cheeks far and wide.

Wowzer

[Typhoon Tip]

wouldn't it be awesome if this thing passed 50 mi E of the BM ...which would be closer yet compared to guidance', but then morphed into a norlun event added on top ?

[Logan11]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hard to read but looks good for eastern Mass on the BTV4.

Some incredible QPF in the mountains, too.  Even cut in half would be big.  Fun week for all.

Interaction with the upper low seems to be very generous even well out west. Model Consensus s .9" to 1.1" qpf even here in the Helderbergs.

[Whineminster]

Sooo do I get 5" or 15"? It's a pure toss-up

[Logan11]

Mitch is gonna get buried again I think.

[J Paul Gordon]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wouldn't it be awesome if this thing passed 50 mi E of the BM ...which would be closer yet compared to guidance', but then morphed into a norlun event added on top ?

wait....is this like a joke? If so it is pretty funny. If not, could a norlun event happen within a larger scale storm?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, tunafish said:

 

 

IMBY question.... How far N&W do those features appear to make it?  Into coastal Maine or are they limited to SNE?

I would have to say coastal Maine is looking pretty good. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wowzer

You always say go big or go home, right? 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Sooo do I get 5" or 15"? It's a pure toss-up

5". You are docked 10" for a poor attitude

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wouldn't it be awesome if this thing passed 50 mi E of the BM ...which would be closer yet compared to guidance', but then morphed into a norlun event added on top ?

Doesn't this kinda scream norlun?