March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

I'm not ignoring for BOS but I think CT is probably too far west to do double digits with this one. You and I are probably good for a foot I'd say.

CT never looked good for more than moderate amounts..aside from maybe eastern third.

[weathafella]

6-12+

[dryslot]

18z Extended Reggie

 

[8611Blizz]

Harvey 8 12+ For most.

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, weathafella said:

6-12+

my first call for mby is 10-16". will refine later

[SR Airglow]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CT never looked good for more than moderate amounts

You had 8-14" for eastern areas last night/this morning? I'd say that's certainly major in my book.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yes, but would you listen to them?

I would , but I think they are shell shocked 

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I would , but I think they are shell shocked 

shell shocked by what?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

18z Extended Reggie

 

Looks better for eastern areas than previous runs imo...regardless of QPF.

Other runs had mid level zone further west.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

18z Extended Reggie

 

There’s the mid level band way west over CT. Makes sense with track of 700

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I would , but I think they are shell shocked 

70/30 I think was what was explicitly stated after 12z

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

You had 8-14" for eastern areas last night?

I edited that.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

shell shocked by what?

The massive OTS shifts

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

my first call for mby is 10-16". will refine later

Yea, that's reasonable.

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The massive OTS shifts

massive lol ok.. they are not massive.. maybe for your area

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

I'm not ignoring for BOS but I think CT is probably too far west to do double digits with this one. You and I are probably good for a foot I'd say.

And after all we deserve it right?

[WintersComing]

Everyone jumping off the cliff already?


.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

massive lol ok.. they are not massive.. maybe for your area

Regardless of QPF, it still looks like we have a good shot at over 1'.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

massive lol ok.. they are not massive.. maybe for your area

Yeah... his area has been on the line between major or less impact so the changes are more severe there.

Hoping we can get a small jog back west

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah these shifts aren't huge. But 25-50 mi matters a lot when you have a steep gradient and you're already on the western edge. 

 

I would say the rgem shift was a bit bigger but that happens when it's outside it's wheelhouse...ala NAM. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah... his area has been on the line between major or less impact so the changes are more severe there.

Hoping we can get a small jog back west

The 00z EURO was perfect for me, 12z jackpots more your area over to Diane.

Either is fine for me, though.....it didn't shift much at all. The QPF output is misleading.

[HoarfrostHubb]

 Central MA looking like 6-12” still...upper amounts more 495ish

[Damage In Tolland]

I think if you go Euro 60% Nam 40 you get basic idea. 6-12 back to river and 12+ PVD east 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The 00z EURO was perfect for me, 12z jackpots more your area over to Diane.

Either is fine for me, though.....it didn't shift much at all. The QPF output is misleading.

Are you doing an update tonight?  Plan those bathroom trips well and type fast

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Are you doing an update tonight?  Plan those bathroom trips well and type fast

Final call tomorrow night.

Right now, I think I'd shift everything like 15 mi east, but this is why you do two calls, and not update after every run.....recipe for waffles.

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Extended Reggie

 

Over an inch for much of NNE.

3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Everyone jumping off the cliff already?


.

Jump or cling to the NAM.  your choice.

[CoolMike]

Stay the course.  0z will deliver the goods.  Trust me I stayed at a holiday in once.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think if you go Euro 60% Nam 40 you get basic idea. 6-12 back to river and 12+ PVD east 

That's where I have stayed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

That's where I have stayed 

Looks good right now.

[TalcottWx]

Pretty skeptical right now of big snows far west into New England. Never really bought in to this full blizzard idea that seems to be in favor right now. Tip did a good job of explaining why. These last two euro and gfs runs are certainly solid examples. Just a moderate type of snowfall.

I really hope I'm wrong, but to say this is a slam dunk, would be misleading.