March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Could be right. Still a big event for eastern areas but not the 1-2 foot thatunts (maybe approaching a foot  far SE areas) 

W a S.L.P track that box calls far se and not climatologically favorable for big snows i cant toss for That Reason

[Hoth]

Fire up the lawn thread. Let the gipsymothopolypse begin.

[#NoPoles]

jackpot for James

[Damage In Tolland]

If the EPS stays the course and bangs hard NW like it has, then its game on. If EPS shifts east, then we slip it OTS. Pretty simple concept 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

What is the issue on op 

[bobbutts]

This (experimental) graphic from GYX showing extreme uncertainty in the potential.. I'm looking at 0-18"

 

Despite the rather silly range of values there I think this is an excellent product.

[CTWeatherFreak]

And what... Every other piece of guidance is on crack?

[Weenie]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If the EPS stays the course and bangs hard NW like it has, then its game on. If EPS shifts east, then we slip it OTS. Pretty simple concept 

When does the EPS release?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Tough tough forecast.

Euro is basically a quarter of what other models are showing.

Barely scraping low end warning for most

[weathafella]

We have another 2 runs of the euro.   Only the folks who can work without sleeping will be up for the 0z.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If the EPS stays the course and bangs hard NW like it has, then its game on. If EPS shifts east, then we slip it OTS. Pretty simple concept 

Isn’t it a little late in the game to be using ensembles? They will prob just follow the OP

[#NoPoles]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh well. Onto Sping.

fyp

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Like how box maps had max amounts at12" plus and min amounts at 0" for about eveveryone on 5am maps

[centralmass]

2 minutes ago, Weenie said:

When does the EPS release?

3pm

[Go Kart Mozart]

Tiger at 3pm today

[dryslot]

Its over.

[#NoPoles]

6 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

And what... Every other piece of guidance is on crack?

yes

[78Blizzard]

Even the Ukie was still holding serve at 12z.  For those with the JMA fetish, even it came N from 0z, lol.  The euro is the outlier right now, king or not.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If the EPS stays the course and bangs hard NW like it has, then its game on. If EPS shifts east, then we slip it OTS. Pretty simple concept 

Ooooo this EPS run is make or break. I can sense the tug-o-war in his head right now. Do we ORH or do we BDL? 

Keep’er tuned.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Even the Ukie was still holding serve at 12z.  For those with the JMA fetish, even it came N from 0z, lol.  The euro is the outlier right now, king or not.

Ukie track was east of an already east track. Just had qpf magic

[JC-CT]

54 minutes ago, Weenie said:

There should be an official model timeline on this site, one where the start times for every model run are posted in a 12 hour cycle and then links to the corrosponding website. That way we can have official viewing parties!

Not a bad idea

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Ooooo this EPS run is make or break. I can sense the tug-o-war in his head right now. Do we ORH or do we BDL? 

Keep’er tuned.

Still an outside chance it’s a light event and you and the hens start spring cleanup. House money though has strong odds on chickens choking 

[JC-CT]

I have noticed the s stream digging further as well as the n stream. Dig too much and that's what happens. Within the range of possibilities for sure. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Well I was certainly wrong .. I thought the higher probability was for this run to come west but a small amount ... sort of visualized it solidifying Barry's idea above really -

This is so discordantly out of sync with everything else I almost feel it can't be trusted.  I'm not sure... ( I don't include the UKMET in any assessment )

The Euro organization doesn't release statements that discuss model diagnostics...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The ukie and euro don’t seem all that different to me. Tough to go against that

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie track was east of an already east track. Just had qpf magic

It was in the same position at hr 48 at 12z vs hr 60 at 0z, and 3 mb stronger.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The ukie and euro don’t seem all that different to me. Tough to go against that

70% euro and blend the rest.  Still gives 8-14.

[moneypitmike]

14 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

This (experimental) graphic from GYX showing extreme uncertainty in the potential.. I'm looking at 0-18"

 

Despite the rather silly range of values there I think this is an excellent product.

Looks like 5-19 for me.  Not a slam dunk decision to head up based on EC.

[Typhoon Tip]

Here's a wild science fiction plot ...

Supposin' the time-change f'ed up that run. Their model does this 4-D correction scheming, which is intrinsically containing some sort of time consideration ... 'what if' their ingest got weird because we sent them our data at a time they forget/or erred in correcting their grids for - ...

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

70% euro and blend the rest.  Still gives 8-14.

Something screams burp run with this. We’ll see though.