SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Rgem That’s about what I think the final track may be and furthest west it can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Anyway, I said with a track like the NAM’s. Quite possible it could be a later phase or a track east. But an amped trend is a possibility here. It’s not “downplaying”. If you don’t like reading that, sorry. Put me on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, dmillz25 said: It might not be rain but it could dryslot On the NAM there's def a dry slot. The storm is 60 hours out and details will be ironed out before then. People arguing and being worried bc of 1 NAM run at this time frame is laughable. The evolution on the NAM was gorgeous. Tons of dynamics and area north and west of the city got crushed. On to the next rum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: On the NAM there's def a dry slot. The storm is 60 hours out and details will be ironed out before then. People arguing and being worried bc of 1 NAM run at this time frame is laughable. The evolution on the NAM was gorgeous. Tons of dynamics and area north and west of the city got crushed. On to the next rum. Brugal please lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 FWIW, here's the RGEM, though it's still outside its most skillful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: FWIW, here's the RGEM, though it's still outside its most skillful range. Ninja'd me. Thanks for posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12/30/2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Dec. 2000 deformation snow was remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 51 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Correct. Verbatim this would be snow to washing away. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk We've seen this movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Track is similar to last March big noreaster. That's what worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: 0Z GFS is hugging the coast with precip type issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12/30/2000 was my first time hearing thundersnow. Insane rates for about 7-8 hours since it was compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z GFS is hugging the coast with precip type issues Seems like the northern stream is phasing in more, which is causing the more amped tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 40 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NAM has a good amount of front end snow but I have to think with a track like that most of what falls at least at the immediate coast would be rain or slop. Warm air tends to advance faster especially aloft than modeled. Models had at least 6” for me last March before changing over, I ended up with 3” which was washed away 2 hours later. And I've seen similar stuff happen with March storms for decades, even when climatologically it didn't make sense, like the March 2014 storms getting suppressed. It's like if there is a way for a March storm to underperform it will. Now the situation is different in NW areas, they did well last March. That said I am rooting for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 As others have said, dry slotting is a problem with storms like these. If the SLP tracks over LI, then the city East will get initial overrruning and then dry slot or flip to drizzle. Same could happen to Eastern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z GFS is hugging the coast with precip type issues Gfs is mostly snow from nyc west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 CMC west of 12z and finally get precip in here but well east of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z GFS is hugging the coast with precip type issues Wow! Check out the 540 line. You don't often see that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 For the dry slot you want to track the 700mb low. If it goes west of you, you will dryslot probably since dry air is rotating around south of that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: Wow! Check out the 540 line. You don't often see that... Closed off We will be fine if it closes off south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Tracks pretty similar for the GFS and NAM. I know the event is only 2 days away but doesn't seem like we had those two agreeing on much of anything this winter, even right up to the start of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Wow! Check out the 540 line. You don't often see that... Yup. The atmosphere is pretty darn cold everywhere except the lowest 75 mbMLB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 It seems like the models, save the Euro, have been fairly consistent over the last coupe of days with a low tucked into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: Yup. The atmosphere is pretty darn cold everywhere except the lowest 75 mbMLB Seems like heavy precipitation would cool the entire column... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Metasequoia said: Seems like heavy precipitation would cool the entire column... the main issue is right at the surface if temps stay above 32 - 33 especially during daylight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, Enigma said: Dec. 2000 deformation snow was remarkable. It was incredible, and it was the first significant storm here in some 5 years. Had to take the snowblower out of mothballs. Snow depth caused the handles to bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: the main issue is right at the surface if temps stay above 32 - 33 especially during daylight hours Majority of this will be at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Majority of this will be at night Which night, Tues or wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Majority of this will be at night check that again - forecast is for most of it during the day Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: For the dry slot you want to track the 700mb low. If it goes west of you, you will dryslot probably since dry air is rotating around south of that low. The 0z NAM has the 700mb low fly up the coast, stall when it reaches South Jersey, and then moves/redevelops east out towards the eastern end of Long Island. Considering how tucked the actual Low Pressure low was, thats actually not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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