• Member Statistics

    15,528
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NJRunner
    Newest Member
    NJRunner
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Rtd208

March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

Max temps this month have been impressively below normal at -5.0° here. Month started with a 59° high and haven't been higher than 50° since...Normal highs now are around 54°.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, sferic said:

What date?

Well from Apr. 3 to beyond Apr. 5 the 850's are way below normal to west and north, but the precipitation has not reached us yet.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Well from Apr. 3 to beyond Apr. 5 the 850's are way below normal to west and north, but the precipitation has not reached us yet.

Euro control has a heavy snowstorm around April 7-8th for the mid Atlantic but the euro has a snowstorm at the of the run. I’ll take it, let’s go with a bang!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

Euro control has a heavy snowstorm around April 7-8th for the mid Atlantic but the euro has a snowstorm at the of the run. I’ll take it, let’s go with a bang!

Obviously everything has to come together perfectly to get an all out snowstorm in April. There's a very slim chance that it could happen, but odds are great that we've seen our last snowstorm. And as much as I love snow, I hope we've seen our last snowstorm. The growing season for cool weather vegetables starts this week. Who would want snow falling on vegetable plants. It has happened only 1 time since I started gardening. The April snowstorm in 2003 (I believe it was the 7th) when we got about 6 inches of snow here. Thankfully it did not damage the broccoli plants or stop the peas from coming up because that stuff is so hardy, but it was an awful sight and had me worried. April is not a time for snowstorms around here, but I know some snow fans that don't do early season gardening will still be rooting for it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, doncat said:

Max temps this month have been impressively below normal at -5.0° here. Month started with a 59° high and haven't been higher than 50° since...Normal highs now are around 54°.

Yeah, the cold departures are being driven more by the cool high temps. The low for the month in NYC of 27 is tied for 2nd warmest in March since 2000. So far the max of 60 is 3rd coldest since 2000. 

Warmest March mins in NYC since 2000

29....2010

27...2018...2013...2008

Coldest March maxes

57...2001

59...2013

60...2018 so far

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NYC, KNYC specifically, has now had 19 consecutive days below normal although none of them more than 9 degrees below normal, most falling 3 to 7 degrees below normal. That's a remarkable string without any real cold outbreaks. Does anyone (DonS, Uncle W, Bluwave etc;) know when the last time we we had 19 consecutive days below normal? I assume by midnight it will be 20.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A generally seasonable to warmer than normal stretch of weather now lies ahead.  Temperatures will rise into the 50s in coming days and then the 60s by the middle or latter part of the week. Thursday and Friday could see the warmest temperatures of the month with the mercury rising into the middle to upper 60s on at least one of the two days. A few locations in New Jersey could reach or exceed 70°.

Afterward, there remain indications that colder than normal weather could return in April. Whether or not there will be measurable snowfall in Central Park remains an open question. The last time Central Park saw measurable April snowfall occurred on April 5, 2006 when 0.1” fell. This is the longest such measurable snowfall drought for April on record in Central Park since regular recordkeeping began in 1869. The last time Central Park picked up 1.0” or more snow was April 7, 2003 when 4.0” accumulated.

Measurable snowfall in April has grown less common in New York City. During the first 50 years of recordkeeping (1869-1918), there were 32 such days, including 16 days with 1” or more. During the most recent 50-year period (1968-2017), there were 10 days with measurable snowfall and just 3 days with 1” or more.

Areas to the north and west of the City could have a higher probability of seeing measurable snowfall in April this year than New York City, but the City could have a chance given the forecast evolution of the pattern. Parts of Long Island likely have a higher probability of seeing measurable snowfall than New York City, as well.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/25 38.6° (3/25 estimate: 38.5°-38.8°; 2.9° below normal)
3/31 40.1°-41.1° (3/25 estimate: 39.9°-41.1°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 83% (3/25 estimate: 81%)

The only reason Central Park even bothered with the April 5, 2006 measurement of 0.1 inches was because it brought the seasonal total to 40.0 inches even making if the fourth straight year NYC recorded 40 or more inches of snow, which had never happened before or since. I'm sure someone at the NWS contacted the Zoo and told them to record that 0.1 because that was something the zookeeper never did. The Conservancy hasn't been great either, but I have found them to be an improvement over the Zoo.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The only reason Central Park even bothered with the April 5, 2006 measurement of 0.1 inches was because it brought the seasonal total to 40.0 inches even making if the fourth straight year NYC recorded 40 or more inches of snow, which had never happened before or since. I'm sure someone at the NWS contacted the Zoo and told them to record that 0.1 because that was something the zookeeper never did. The Conservancy hasn't been great either, but I have found them to be an improvement over the Zoo.

I wonder what the Central Park accumulation averages really are. I remember the 96 fiasco where the park was the only site under 20 inches. My friend from Long Island reminded me of the car company that was giving away Cadillac’s based on how far the final snowfall was over 20 inches in Central Park. I definitely would have checked the zoo keepers garage after that.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

I'm at -4.2 for March, with a mean temp of 36.9F. For comparison, February had a mean temp of 40.7F! This month's temperatures are more akin to December.

My maximum temperature this March has been 58F, which is lower than my max in Dec (65), Jan, (63), and Feb (78). A maximum temperature in the upper 50s is fairly cool even in mid winter, nevermind March. Really demonstrates the -NAO blocking effectiveness in precluding significant warm-ups.

This week now looks to struggle in the 50s. I may not hit 60F this March, which must be almost record breaking.

The other impressive thing is that we achieved these departures without any real cold to work with in Canada. Given the intensity of the pattern we just witnessed the last few weeks, I think we got off kind of easy as far as temps go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, doncat said:

This date in 1998 started a March heat wave, as temps exceeded 80° for five straight days peaking at 87° on the 31st.

I remember that warm stretch well. It was preceeded by a suprise 5" of snow, the only real snowfall of the season. Prevented 97-98 from being the least snowist season ever. I believe 0.5" fell up to that point.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With daffodils and crocuses in bloom and temperatures in the 50s and, later this week 60s, it appears that spring has taken hold for good in the New York City Metro Region after a false start in February. If the forecast evolution of the 500 mb pattern and the forecast teleconnections are representative, this period of warmer weather will represent yet another false start.

An EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern is likely to prevail through much of the first week of April. A deep trough is likely to develop in eastern North America, as well. Such teleconnections typically favor readings of 1° or more below normal and a probability of freezes that is 60% above climatology. The weekly EPS and CFSv2 guidance both favor a colder than normal start to April

The major question concerns whether there will be a measurable snowfall during that period. The guidance have intermittently hinted at such a possibility. The EPS continues to show some risk, especially just outside New York City. Given the forecast pattern and the guidance, the probability of such an outcome is likely higher than climatology. For now, the highest probability may exist during the April 4-6 period.
 
New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

3/26 38.7° (2.9° below normal)
3/31 40.2°-40.9° (3/26 estimate: 40.1°-41.1°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an below normal monthly anomaly: 85% (3/26 estimate: 83%)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remainder of March averaging 52degs., or about 5degs. AN.  Month to date is  -2.9.  March should end at -1.6.  The 8 day period is averaging 49degs., or 2degs. AN.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

NYC, KNYC specifically, has now had 19 consecutive days below normal although none of them more than 9 degrees below normal, most falling 3 to 7 degrees below normal. That's a remarkable string without any real cold outbreaks. Does anyone (DonS, Uncle W, Bluwave etc;) know when the last time we we had 19 consecutive days below normal? I assume by midnight it will be 20.

The last time NYC had a stretch of 20 or more consecutive days with below normal mean temperatures occurred during the June 13, 2009-July 15, 2009 period, when the temperature remained below normal for 33 consecutive days.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, dWave said:

I remember that warm stretch well. It was preceeded by a suprise 5" of snow, the only real snowfall of the season. Prevented 97-98 from being the least snowist season ever. I believe 0.5" fell up to that point.

The biggest el nino year i remember that. Ever since than ive been a :weenie:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dWave said:

I remember that warm stretch well. It was preceeded by a suprise 5" of snow, the only real snowfall of the season. Prevented 97-98 from being the least snowist season ever. I believe 0.5" fell up to that point.

It was too bad in some ways, I was rooting for futility at that point.    The heatwave was incredible by March standards...multiple days of 80's in March.   Was a warm winter with the super nino....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, rclab said:

I wonder what the Central Park accumulation averages really are. I remember the 96 fiasco where the park was the only site under 20 inches. My friend from Long Island reminded me of the car company that was giving away Cadillac’s based on how far the final snowfall was over 20 inches in Central Park. I definitely would have checked the zoo keepers garage after that.

The final measurement was 20.2 but the car company promotion was that 4 inches or more would fall in Central Park on that date for a 12 hour period and they measured 3.6 during those 12 hours of the storm. I think it was noon to midnight but I'm not positive. It was very suspicious as was the 20.2 inch total which was more like 24-26 total. Just another historic storm with a bad total do to negligence or incompetence or both.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Through the 26th, NYC is -4 on the daily high and -2 for the daily low temperature departure.

Managed a couple of larger departures on the mins last two days with 26° low temps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The final measurement was 20.2 but the car company promotion was that 4 inches or more would fall in Central Park on that date for a 12 hour period and they measured 3.6 during those 12 hours of the storm. I think it was noon to midnight but I'm not positive. It was very suspicious as was the 20.2 inch total which was more like 24-26 total. Just another historic storm with a bad total do to negligence or incompetence or both.

I couldn’t agree more. You could even make a case that the total was closer to 28” and may have been NYC’s greatest storm of all time. As far as impact region wide it’s still king 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I couldn’t agree more. You could even make a case that the total was closer to 28” and may have been NYC’s greatest storm of all time. As far as impact region wide it’s still king 

I’m still pretty sure the Jan 1996 blizzard dropped more snow in Long Beach than I’ve seen in a single storm. Second was PDII in 2003. Jan 2016 may have been more, but we all know where I was for that one. :( 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m still pretty sure the Jan 1996 blizzard dropped more snow in Long Beach than I’ve seen in a single storm. Second was PDII in 2003. Jan 2016 may have been more, but we all know where I was for that one. :( 

Jan 16 was king from eastern queens to western Nassau where totals were in the 30” range. Just to the west and east of the that band it was high 20s. 

Going to and from manhattan in the days following you could see the difference from about lynbrook to Forrest hills  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The last time NYC had a stretch of 20 or more consecutive days with below normal mean temperatures occurred during the June 13, 2009-July 15, 2009 period, when the temperature remained below normal for 33 consecutive days.

wow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.