STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Aren't last days north moves usually from pumping of ridge in front of strong stream? Isn't this s stream a terd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 RPM is way north of the 09z run through 21 hours...wonder if it is because it isn't focusing the low center on convection to the southeast...it had a lot more convection to the southeast on the 09z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro wasn't the only model doing this either. There's a chance we see a good bump if we can get rid of that. Good time to match up mid levels and forcing and sort of ignore the convoluted surface development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Honestly, if you plot the 700 mb heights, the Euro is farther north and deeper than the GFS (which has the QPF farther north). That still argues for a blend of the two to me. The Euro does sink south faster than both American models though, by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Good time to match up mid levels and forcing and sort of ignore the convoluted surface development. So where does that put our low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Honestly, if you plot the 700 mb heights, the Euro is farther north and deeper than the GFS (which has the QPF farther north). That still argues for a blend of the two to me. The Euro does sink south faster than both American models though, by 00z. I think that's the big thing. It begins to really get pulled south. I wonder if part of it is because of that modeled meso low. Almost slings back west and causes a Fuji dance and whips it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 nam looks good, much colder than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM is pretty zonked at 21 hours...its definitely colder than 06z too. I think this will probably be a good solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It still does that warm tongue at 850, but a bit more nrly drain 950 and lower it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Oh boy oh boy oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It still does that warm tongue at 850, but a bit more nrly drain 950 and lower it seems. Yeah its close to IP/ZR for a time in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Definitely a stronger H5 low compared to 6z. Not sure what that means after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is pretty zonked at 21 hours...its definitely colder than 06z too. I think this will probably be a good solution Heavy flashing over around hour 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Snowing in west CT by hour 26 as the 850 begins collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It still does that warm tongue at 850, but a bit more nrly drain 950 and lower it seems. Yeah we're prob not avoiding it...but it's still colder than 06z at least...and the better ULL could make for a better final 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely a stronger H5 low compared to 6z. Not sure what that means after 00z. nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is pretty zonked at 21 hours...its definitely colder than 06z too. I think this will probably be a good solution Lol ok here we go again...can't wait to see how this actually turns out?? Nam gonna go nuts again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 flips mid morning in wct and its bananas all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, correnjim1 said: nothing Tblizz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Do Berkshires remain snow on this 12z nam run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Wow ...33 hours is flipping to nuking paste....a little earlier than 06z run...and that is absolutely terrifying coastal tide situation for E MA....that is awful there. Prob hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: flips mid morning in wct and its bananas all around. We flirt with the r/s line the entire time but I think we take this and hope the heavy precip cools us enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom12309 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 That earlier pic reminds me of a few years ago where down at the house in Schenectady we got maybe 4 inches of slush and a lot of rain, 1000 feet up in western Schenectady county they got whacked. I remember one tree stump with a mushroom cap on it about five times wider than the tree it came so fast and big flakes up there. They had to get 2 1/2 feet easy. It was edging on spring time, riding my bike up there was a hoot between 8 foot banks, in the state forest people are cross county skiing and I'm riding my bicycle along next to them on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow ...33 hours is flipping to nuking paste....a little earlier than 06z run...and that is absolutely terrifying coastal tide situation for E MA....that is awful there. Prob hurricane force winds. wind hose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: flips mid morning in wct and its bananas all around. Local forecasts calling for Rain all day tomorrow in CT...perhaps mixing with some flakes in the late afternoon in high spots....and then some snow in the evening...my goodness what a tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Better mid level flow from E-ESE at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 We hose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think that's the big thing. It begins to really get pulled south. I wonder if part of it is because of that modeled meso low. Almost slings back west and causes a Fuji dance and whips it south. There could be an element of that. 13km Euro has two 268 closed contours, with the larger one farther SE, SE of the dry slot even. Weird look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 And E CT with the dryslot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 37 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Weird ranges Looks ok to me. Elevation wins in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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