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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You're just trying to torture us, right?

I'm not there either...  Torturing myself too maybe? 

I think that's been a lock for days and days in New York.  Just fun to read the high end impact statements.

Anyway, if folks in SNE don't think anything has been cleared up... I was just seeing that the BGM NWS office has the probabilities for SYR: 10% probability is 30" and the 90% probability is 3".  So 3-30" it is.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

These large expanding upper lows often have some surprises with them and they can "overstay their welcome" so to speak. As the low tries to drift SE, the expanding circulation tries to offset that some and keep us in the firing line.

18z NAM did something similar

Something to watch. Some would say we're searching for scraps at this point in eastern SNE, but I'm still not 100% certain the synoptics of the low centers can't subtly improve with a disproportionate improvement in outcome.

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