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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, sbos_wx said:

You won't need elevation. It's marginal. Low level warmth will probably be overcome in a scenario like that.

I agree, eventually. There will definitely be a time where 850s are below zero but we are still waiting for it to flip because the surface needs to cool from +4 C.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Does the sfc low truly follow that convection or is it just spitting an "L" in an area with slightly lower pressure while dynamically the sfc low takes over to the NW of that closer to the better mid level dynamics?

I don’t think it really matters either way. H5 isn’t closed at 48 so she comes north/west.

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