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March 2018 Model Discussion


WeatherFeen2000
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1 minute ago, kvn139 said:

I'm assuming you meant that you prefer Miller A's to Miller B's

No what he said is what he meant... Miller B primary to OHIO valley then secondary development off the coast.... u usually always get a nice thump of WAA....

Your Miller A are the classic up the coast storms.

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3 minutes ago, kvn139 said:

I'm assuming you meant that you prefer Miller A's to Miller B's

No, did you not read what I said?

I prefer miller B's. Normally you can get a good amount of WAA snows out ahead of the developing coastal, and if you're lucky you can get hit by both parts of the storm. With a miller A you're normally talking about an intense, but narrow area of heavy snow.

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2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

No what he said is what he meant... Miller B primary to OHIO valley then secondary development off the coast.... u usually always get a nice thump of WAA....

Your Miller A are the classic up the coast storms.

Interesting website that lays out all the possible storm track types

http://www.glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm

 

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17 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

NYC still would have come up short in Jan/Feb. We were caught in an area of subsidence for virtually the entire duration of the 2nd storm (it was a flizzard) and we might have cashed in a bit more for the 3rd storm because of that one band that sat for a few hours but the main show was well east.  The 1st storm was a lot of White Rain, that could have been the big one for NYC had it come a month earlier. 

Hopefully we can finally cash in for this next storm but the odds are majorly stacked against us, everything will have to come together perfectly. It looks like it will be a big storm either way so should be fun to follow.

Yes, the subsidence would have still resulted in less precip, but for all 3 storms NYC probably had 6", 12" and 4" of snow that actually fell from the sky, but only a cumulative 4" of snow actually accumulated (at my house it was 0.5", 8.5" and 1.7"), due to borderline surface temps (independent of time of year) and the indirect sunlight (hugely greater melting rate in March vs. January).  

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Most of the top analogs currently were major snow producers just away from the coast, and some of our biggest freezing rain producers locally. 

I know on paper the freezing rain threat makes sense, especially just inland. That scenario just ends up verifying so rarely around here that I would need to see it to believe it. 

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Most of the top analogs currently were major snow producers just away from the coast, and some of our biggest freezing rain producers locally. 

I know on paper the freezing rain threat makes sense, especially just inland. That scenario just ends up verifying so rarely around here that I would need to see it to believe it. 

Which analogs are u using?

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12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Which analogs are u using?

I’m mostly a lurker, and I appreciate everyone’s PBP here, especially those late euro runs, but I just wanted you to know that your PBP was missed for the last few storms. Even though you’re practically up at the North Pole you’re not biased to that and even seem happy when others cash in and your smoking cirrus, or at the very least you’re pretty good natured about it which isn’t easy if you’re posting on this site lol. It’s greatly appreciated here. 

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EPS has been a bit more reliable on the indices lately so I’m giving it a little more weight. This version of GEFS agrees. That said, the lingering blockiness can’t be ignored. The transition of seasons and shorter wavelengths can very much lead to different outcomes than we’re used to in the dead of winter.

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27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Interesting website that lays out all the possible storm track types

http://www.glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm

 

That was really informative.... didn't know there was like a million types LOL (well 5 plus the ice one)

Also OFF TOPIC.... just caught a quick peek at Channel 7 on my phone with Lee and he thinks Tuesday is more wet then wet... ugh lol why do they lie?

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7 minutes ago, romba said:

I’m mostly a lurker, and I appreciate everyone’s PBP here, especially those late euro runs, but I just wanted you to know that your PBP was missed for the last few storms. Even though you’re practically up at the North Pole you’re not biased to that and even seem happy when others cash in and your smoking cirrus, or at the very least you’re pretty good natured about it which isn’t easy if you’re posting on this site lol. It’s greatly appreciated here. 

I appreciate it, I’ll try and post more for this upcoming

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23 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That was really informative.... didn't know there was like a million types LOL (well 5 plus the ice one)

Also OFF TOPIC.... just caught a quick peek at Channel 7 on my phone with Lee and he thinks Tuesday is more wet then wet... ugh lol why do they lie?

more wet than wet? and why is he lying? right now that would be the case if you had to make a forecast

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31 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That was really informative.... didn't know there was like a million types LOL (well 5 plus the ice one)

Also OFF TOPIC.... just caught a quick peek at Channel 7 on my phone with Lee and he thinks Tuesday is more wet then wet... ugh lol why do they lie?

GFS and EURO today are showing more rain than snow for NYC. Lee just said that it's trending towards more wet than white right now, which is true. Yesterday's model runs had a much colder look. Lee was just giving his early opinion and it certainly can change.

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There is no trend here at this point. The only trend has been to continue to show a storm, though with rather chaotic tracks/setups.

a few things to watch here is the ridging to the north over Canada. This will dictate where the cold high sets up. For our subforum, the idea spot for the surface high would be southern Quebec, maybe around Montreal.

Secondly, we don't want a situation like the Euro where the low closes off super early. Even with s/w's rotating around the low like the Euro shows, it inhibits the potential strength of the secondary low by preventing the best PVA from reaching the best baroclinicity at the coast. Would rather have an open wave than the Euro setup if that is he case

Will be an interesting one to watch.

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1 hour ago, nzucker said:

We aren't jinxed. I've had 7.25" this March, which is a solid total for NYC.

Where did I say NYC was jinxed? :rolleyes:

Also the reference was to Manhattan, Lower Queens and Brooklyn, which can be a different world compared to your location.

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