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March 2018 Model Discussion


WeatherFeen2000

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If the models "lose" this storm it will likely be because the block ends up either too strong or non-existent. 

Hard to tell from the maps available, but it looks like the 12z UKMET supports the idea of a primary into the Ohio Valley with redevelopment offshore. You can see here the baginess in the isobars off the mid-atlantic coast.

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

That front end thump does actually make some sense. This is going to be another one of those that changes on every operational run. Almost all the energy hangs out off the coast of AK/BC/PacNW until Sat night or Sunday. 

WAA snows before the coastal takes over. I don't really buy the lack of precip with a sub 1000mb sitting in that spot south of LI. Even with the ULL making it to Buffalo, the SLP should be able to start cranking. To me this has long duration WAA snows over to a slow moving coastal written all over it.

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Does this remind anyone of Feb 2003, Miller B, approaching from the west, cold air in place, redevelops off the coast, slow mover, perhaps?  

Yes except we had a true arctic injection that we won't see with this storm. But the premise is accurate from a H5 perspective.

021721.png
5aa96cfcb0b3d.png

 

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

With the AO and NAO progged to be going positive at the time of this storm, wouldnt a warmer Buffalo track be more correct?

No because we have the block in place still but slowly lifting out which makes the difference.  it comes down to the timing of the block departing.

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1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

It’ll be colder than any of the storms we had this month though. NYC is just jinxed

Incorrect not jinxed just wrong time of the winter.... Jan/Feb yes all three would of delivered but not in March.  Mayb this one will since 3 times is a charm didn't work out so well.

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5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

It’ll be colder than any of the storms we had this month though. NYC is just jinxed

We don’t know that yet. Way too early to make predictions other than that there’ll likely be a storm. The confluence northeast of it could ease and it could trend into an inland runner. 

Good luck to whoever. After the last three disasters here, I’m done. 

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45 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Incorrect not jinxed just wrong time of the winter.... Jan/Feb yes all three would of delivered but not in March.  Mayb this one will since 3 times is a charm didn't work out so well.

NYC still would have come up short in Jan/Feb. We were caught in an area of subsidence for virtually the entire duration of the 2nd storm (it was a flizzard) and we might have cashed in a bit more for the 3rd storm because of that one band that sat for a few hours but the main show was well east.  The 1st storm was a lot of White Rain, that could have been the big one for NYC had it come a month earlier. 

Hopefully we can finally cash in for this next storm but the odds are majorly stacked against us, everything will have to come together perfectly. It looks like it will be a big storm either way so should be fun to follow.

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29 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I know about March it’s rwally hard to get accumulations and it needs to be really colder than 33-34. Temperatures never dropped below 33 during all these storms believe me if it went to 32 it would have accumulated no problem. City is a hard task cause it’s a hell hole! Literally

A lot of time with these storms it comes down to luck. That's why I prefer Miller B's over Miller A's. Sure it can be exciting if you happen to get under an intense CCB, but the margin for error is very small.

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A lot of time with these storms it comes down to luck. That's why I prefer Miller B's over Miller A's. Sure it can be exciting if you happen to get under an intense CCB, but the margin for error is very small.

I'm assuming you meant that you prefer Miller A's to Miller B's

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