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March 2018 Model Discussion


WeatherFeen2000

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50 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

...really? 

Same here in NJ. People just don't believe it when we tell them that, ummm, it really isn't snowing much here.....and it has been like that for most of the big storms since Jan 2016. In fact, with the exception of Monmouth CTy, the storms this year have greatly resembled those of most of the 80's....3-6 with other areas getting more, sometimes lots more. But really, it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. If I wanted snow all the time I could move to Maine. Or Buffalo.

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Models look good for next weeks coastal. My favorite model; canadian is a mecs gfs has two storm kinda interesting but less snow cause they’re kinda strung out and euro has 3-6 inches areawide by next Wednesday I hope we get destroyed with at least a foot but it’s hard for it to snow in nyc cause it’s literally a hell hole

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EPS has been a bit more reliable on the indices lately so I’m giving it a little more weight. This version of GEFS agrees. That said, the lingering blockiness can’t be ignored. The transition of seasons and shorter wavelengths can very much lead to different outcomes than we’re used to in the dead of winter.
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Is there any literature I can read up on wavelengths with regards to teleconnections? I still am yet to find d anything substantial on this topic.
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12 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

No, did you not read what I said?

I prefer miller B's. Normally you can get a good amount of WAA snows out ahead of the developing coastal, and if you're lucky you can get hit by both parts of the storm. With a miller A you're normally talking about an intense, but narrow area of heavy snow.

Yeah but we want early developing miller b's that develop off the carolinas not these later developing types that only new england cashes in on.

 

Wasn't March 1993 a Miller A though?

There's a certain fascination with long track coastals- just like long track hurricanes

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2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Yeah but we want early developing miller b's that develop off the carolinas not these later developing types that only new england cashes in on.

 

Wasn't March 1993 a Miller A though?

There's a certain fascination with long track coastals- just like long track hurricanes

I prefaced my original post on the topic by saying that Miller B’s aren’t usually as exciting as Miller A’s, and yes I agree that ones that develop near OBX are better. Yes the Superstorm was a Miller A, as was Boxing Day, as was some of the storms this year. They drop crazy amounts of snow over a narrow area.

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22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I prefaced my original post on the topic by saying that Miller B’s aren’t usually as exciting as Miller A’s, and yes I agree that ones that develop near OBX are better. Yes the Superstorm was a Miller A, as was Boxing Day, as was some of the storms this year. They drop crazy amounts of snow over a narrow area.

Yea Miller B’s aren’t as exciting and not the power house that a Miller A can be but they tend to have a wider area of snowfall. Like you said yesterday the prefer would be a Miller B for a higher confidence in snowfall because of opportunity for WAA snows.

BTW what are you currently sitting at for total snowfall this winter? I have 49” with the .75” last night.

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1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

Yea Miller B’s aren’t as exciting and not the power house that a Miller A can be but they tend to have a wider area of snowfall. Like you said yesterday the prefer would be a Miller B for a higher confidence in snowfall because of opportunity for WAA snows.

BTW what are you currently sitting at for total snowfall this winter? I have 49” with the .75” last night.

I didn't keep an exact total but I am around 40"

For the record, the blizzard of 96 was an extreme case of a miller B where the upper level low closed off near St. Louis. The primary never made it Northeast of Tennessee thanks to the extreme block over Northern New England. A secondary low then formed over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and moved Northward along the coast. The track was tucked in until reaching the NJ coast, when the parent 500mb low finally moved offshore. I believe the deepest the SLP ever reached was 992mb.

 

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5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs has back to back coastal lows, Tuesday and Wednesday, but mostly rain. Euro has snow Wednesday and Canadian blasts us with snow Tuesday

The strongest blocking is behind system number one. That's the better storm if we can get the first one out of the way fast enough.

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3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I didn't keep an exact total but I am around 40"

For the record, the blizzard of 96 was an extreme case of a miller B where the upper level low closed off near St. Louis. The primary never made it Northeast of Tennessee thanks to the extreme block over Northern New England. A secondary low then formed over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and moved Northward along the coast. The track was tucked in until reaching the NJ coast, when the parent 500mb low finally moved offshore. I believe the deepest the SLP ever reached was 992mb.

 

1996 was a Miller C.  I think it eventually got down to 980mb.  

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Man, you can tell how difficult this storm is going to be to forecast. The 500mb map just  looks like someone just spilled yellow, orange, and black paint all over it. There's too many significant players to count and try to nail down their exact positions.

12z GFS exhibits a better, more typical split flow which would support high pressure over southern Canada and would bottle up the flow... looks like a slow mover on the GFS, though I'd prefer that high to be a bit further south

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