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February 7th Snow To Rain Event

Cobalt

By Cobalt,
in Mid Atlantic

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SlamSlam

SlamSlam

Posted
Posted
This is such a beaten horse topic.  In this area, and in general. school systems are going to err on the side of caution.  Why do you let it bother you?  The volume in this area makes even a rainy rush hour a nightmare, so look at it as a win for those that have to go to work. 
Not a win for those of us with kids who have to work and need to try and find a last minute solution for babysitting.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

The WWA is pretty bullish on the snow forecast IMO. I would love to see 2 inches up front. But I dont see that happening: 

MDZ003-004-501-502-VAZ028-031-WVZ050>053-503-504-062330-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.180207T0800Z-180207T1900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Extreme Western Allegany-
Central and Eastern Allegany-Frederick VA-Clarke-Hampshire-Morgan-
Berkeley-Jefferson-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
1018 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations up to two inches expected and ice accumulations
  around two tenths of an inch expected. Ice accumulations around
  one-quarter of an inch cannot be ruled out across portions of
  the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia and western Maryland.
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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

Yeah, western areas are a different story. But I think its crazy that kids literally pull school closures out of wet roads and we get advisories off this.

 

you've been told why there are advisories, if you have an issue with it, please contact LWX personally with your complaints. 

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Mrs.J

Mrs.J

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

This is such a beaten horse topic.  In this area, and in general. school systems are going to err on the side of caution.  Why do you let it bother you?  The volume in this area makes even a rainy rush hour a nightmare, so look at it as a win for those that have to go to work. 

I agree with you. Since moving to this area I have realized that it is just not equipped as well as the states who get events more during winter. I just yesterday had to alert my HOA of the horrible conditions of the bus stop my girls have to walk to. I drove them up and with a 2 hr. delay the condition of the untreated stop at 9:25am just gets me in a huff. This is one of the reasons the school systems pull the trigger so fast. There is just not enough equipment to keep up on it. I remember living in OH and seeing the salt trucks with plows just sitting at various areas waiting for the first bit of winter weather to drop. I have learned to just accept the delays, my kids don't seem to be making a stink over it. ;)

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
Timing of onset on the GFS better matches the RGEM instead of the 3km NAM. 


Yep, and hence it verifies the WAA around DC with ~.05in of accretion. When it comes to verifying this “event” I think it’s pretty clear that start time is gonna be the main factor. We should have the cold needed to accrete, especially given what looks like to be a temp bust today.
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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Timing of onset on the GFS better matches the RGEM instead of the 3km NAM. 

      Yes!     The TT site for the NAM3 only has precip rate and 1km reflectivity.   If you look at NAM3 *composite* reflectivity on a different site, it does have echoes over us.     That means that the NAM3 is trying to precipitate here, but it's not reaching the ground which is a common bias of that model.     I would probably reject its idea of a dry rush hour for most.

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MountainGeek

MountainGeek

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

For those of you complaining about the WWA. The 12Z RGEM says there is justification for it. And dont forget it did very well with the precip types in Sundays storm:

 

Yeah and those complaining were posting snowfall maps. I don't think the WWA for the eastern areas is driven by snow as much as the ice potential.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Updated morning LWX AFD: 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The wintry mess will continue Wednesday morning. Locations receiving
a mixed bag of snow and sleet or a mix of sleet and freezing rain
will transition quickly over to a mix of freezing rain and rain
Wednesday morning. Most, if not all, locations should
transition over to all rain Wednesday afternoon as temperatures
climb out of the 30s into 40s and a warm front proceeds to the
northeast. The most ice accretion is expected across north-
central and western Maryland and the eastern Panhandle of West
Virginia. A quarter inch of ice is possible and the advisory may
need to be upgraded to a warning across these areas. Will re-
assess 12z guidance this afternoon. Rain amounts could average
one half to three quarters of an inch. A low pressure system is
expected to pass through the region during the midday and
afternoon hours, thus pulling milder air into and ahead of it.
Seasonable temperatures expected Wednesday.

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Mordecai

Mordecai

Posted
Posted

27908349_1600325920021508_78952355693935

the angle of precipitation doesn’t look too good. The high res models are showing the onset of precip really limited to eastern areas. Most of the area prob won’t see anything until well after school has started. And if that even happens, it will likely be a brief period of freezing rain changing into rain. 

27748114_1600329933354440_35094575888630

If the radar looks like the image above at 4am tomorrow, then schools will start on time. 

As someone who lives in fairfax, they didnt delay or close on Monday, while every other county in the area did. So I’m hoping for something tomorrow wink wink 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

 

the angle of precipitation doesn’t look too good. The high res models are showing the onset of precip really limited to eastern areas. Most of the area prob won’t see anything until well after school has started. And if that even happens, it will likely be a brief period of freezing rain changing into rain. 

 

If the radar looks like the image above at 4am tomorrow, then schools will start on time. 

As someone who lives in fairfax, they didnt delay or close on Monday, while every other county in the area did. So I’m hoping for something tomorrow wink wink 

High Risk mentioned above that NAM on TT doesn't show initial precip very well, so its possible there is precip overhead during those time frames. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

We've seen this song and dance before, and everytime, the usual suspects still manage to cash out on some ice. For me, if the surface winds do not generate what the model output is giving us for tomorrow, then it's going to be another "playing catch-up" with advisories as ice lingers longer than forecast. I'm not super keen on a carbon copy of Sunday, but this one could sneak up on a ton of people. Like you said, if we finish today colder than forecast due to lack of solar heating, it could be more interesting than one would hope as a forecaster. 

You can I are on the same page with this one.

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, mappy said:

High Risk mentioned above that NAM on TT doesn't show initial precip very well, so its possible there is precip overhead during those time frames. 

       I didn't do a great job of explaining it, but that's on the right track.   The NAM3 is doing a poor job of getting the initial precip to reach the ground before evaporating, as it often does.    I always look at composite reflectivity in these scenarios, as if I see precip in the NAM3 there, I know that it's probably showing its usual bias with it incorrectly failing to reach the ground.   (And I can't look at composite reflectivity on TT;  I can only look at 1 km reflectivity and precip rate which won't show me what I need to see.)

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, high risk said:

       I didn't do a great job of explaining it, but that's on the right track.   The NAM3 is doing a poor job of getting the initial precip to reach the ground before evaporating, as it often does.    I always look at composite reflectivity in these scenarios, as if I see precip in the NAM3 there, I know that it's probably showing its usual bias with it incorrectly failing to reach the ground.   (And I can't look at composite reflectivity on TT;  I can only look at 1 km reflectivity and precip rate which won't show me what I need to see.)

thank you! i probably explained your initial post incorrectly, so appreciate the follow up. 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

the angle of precipitation doesn’t look too good. The high res models are showing the onset of precip really limited to eastern areas. Most of the area prob won’t see anything until well after school has started. And if that even happens, it will likely be a brief period of freezing rain changing into rain.

If the radar looks like the image above at 4am tomorrow, then schools will start on time. 

As someone who lives in fairfax, they didnt delay or close on Monday, while every other county in the area did. So I’m hoping for something tomorrow wink wink 

        This isn't true.  Yes, the NAM3 is dry, but that's the only hi-res model failing to get that initial wave of precip to the surface.   The RGEM, HRRR extension, and the Hi-Res Windows do have precip reaching the ground for much of the metro area by rush hour.   The NAM3 is an outlier and it's showing its common bias, so banking on that is not where I'd put my money.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, high risk said:

        This isn't true.  Yes, the NAM3 is dry, but that's the only hi-res model failing to get that initial wave of precip to the surface.   The RGEM, HRRR extension, and the Hi-Res Windows do have precip reaching the ground for much of the metro area by rush hour.   The NAM3 is an outlier and it's showing its common bias, so banking on that is not where I'd put my money.

What model is that based off of?

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, yoda said:

What model is that based off of?

        Those are on TT as WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, and WRF-NMM (actually mislabeled; it's NMMB).    These are ~3km regional runs initialized by the RAP.   The WRF-ARW and WRF-ARW2 (the NCEP equivalent of the NSSL-WRF) in particular do pretty well.   TT only has the 00z cycles so far today, but the NCEP MAG site shows that the 12z cycles have precip over much of the area by rush hour tomorrow.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, high risk said:

        Those are on TT as WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, and WRF-NMM (actually mislabeled; it's NMMB).    These are ~3km regional runs initialized by the RAP.   The WRF-ARW and WRF-ARW2 (the NCEP equivalent of the NSSL-WRF) in particular do pretty well.   TT only has the 00z cycles so far today, but the NCEP MAG site shows that the 12z cycles have precip over much of the area by rush hour tomorrow.

The WRF-NMM or NMMB in particular has some ice for almost everyone west of 95..the other two have precip as you mentioned by 10z...I never look at those as I have this mental bias they are not reliable.  not sure why

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
Just now, BristowWx said:

The WRF-NMM or NMMB in particular has some serious ice for almost everyone west of 95..the other two have precip as you mentioned by 10z...I never look at those as I have this mental bias they are not reliable.  not sure why

Define 'serious'...more than 0.3"? Where are you seeing this?

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