Frog Town Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 May be time to add the 2/6 & 2/7 Storm Thread back up. Euro has had four days of consistency now with very little wavering. Just sayin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Unless something is weird with wxbell, the 12z euro as compared to the 00z doesn't seem to make sense wrt snowfall. The 00z shows a 1005 low over south central OH at 132, and the 12z shows a 1011 low a bit south of that over the Ohio river. So basically the 12z has ticked south and considerable weaker yet the axis/placement of heaviest snow is almost identical to the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Man, looking at the 500mb plots that 6-7th storm's sub-tropical jet shortwave is just not impressive. We really need the polar jet shortwave to come in farther southwest like the Euro has shown or else we see a strung out system at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 28 minutes ago, buckeye said: Unless something is weird with wxbell, the 12z euro as compared to the 00z doesn't seem to make sense wrt snowfall. The 00z shows a 1005 low over south central OH at 132, and the 12z shows a 1011 low a bit south of that over the Ohio river. So basically the 12z has ticked south and considerable weaker yet the axis/placement of heaviest snow is almost identical to the 00z. Didn't know surface low values/placement = snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 29 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Didn't know surface low values/placement = snowfall totals Not sure what you meant by they equal one another. That's not what I said. But they are 2 of several factors that determine snow output. I feel like I'm stating the obvious here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, buckeye said: Not sure what you meant by they equal one another. That's not what I said. But they are 2 of several factors that determine snow output. I feel like I'm stating the obvious here . You are 99% of the time. There was that storm in Feb '90 with the SLP over NY state, and a comma head over SEMI. Rare bird that one was.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I'm watching for the modeling verification and trends wrt qualitative liquid values on the weekends system. Seems there is two camps this winter and the dry sheared out is winning the battle. While another surprise would be greatly appreciative, share the wealth style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 For next week ILN says go with the euro because of track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, buckeye said: For next week ILN says go with the euro because of track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 29 minutes ago, buckeye said: For next week ILN says go with the euro because of track record. Oh, if only it were that easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 It's the 18Z GFS, but it appears to be caving to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 18z GFS does get more snow farther north with next week's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Monday will be a key day for RAOB sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Looks like a TAB/DAB with a bit of advection snow this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Pretty good model agreement between the 12z GFS, 12z CMC, 12z Ukie and even the ICON on a good 3-6" across the GTA on the weekend system. Nam is currently the outlier with the slp tracking north of the region. downsloping winds and marginal sfc temps. I'm thinking <2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 37 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like a TAB/DAB with a bit of advection snow this evening. Over performer. Good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: downsloping winds and marginal sfc temps. I'm thinking <2". I agree. Exactly what I was concerned about. NAM has a better idea of this event locally than the global models. What causes downsloping if you don't mind me asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Frog Town said: It's the 18Z GFS, but it appears to be caving to the Euro I def liked the run but it is an 18z run and we haven't got sampling yet. Curious to see if it continues on 0z. Here's to hoping. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: downsloping winds and marginal sfc temps. I'm thinking <2". What are your thoughts regarding the potential system on Tuesday/Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: I agree. Exactly what I was concerned about. NAM has a better idea of this event locally than the global models. What causes downsloping if you don't mind me asking? W/WSW winds descending the Niagara Escarpment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: What are your thoughts regarding the potential system on Tuesday/Wednesday? In all honesty....I don't have any. Ok...I'll say this best case scenario is probably still under 6". Fast moving open wave. I wouldn't invest a lot into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 This is just one piece of the puzzle for the mid week system, but here's trend on last 5 GEFS runs toward stronger eastern CONUS ridging spreading farther westward, central troughing hanging back farther west and Pac ridging farther west. Valid time is Tuesday evening/00z Wednesday. It certainly doesn't hurt to have higher background height fields in the east with respect to getting the system to come farther north. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: This is just one piece of the puzzle for the mid week system, but here's trend on last 5 GEFS runs toward stronger eastern CONUS ridging spreading farther westward, central troughing hanging back farther west and Pac ridging farther west. Valid time is Tuesday evening/00z Wednesday. It certainly doesn't hurt to have higher background height fields in the east with respect to getting the system to come farther north. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Def want we want to see. Esp for the Chicago people who have been pretty snow deprived. Hoping GFS will cave to Euro. 18z took a baby step. Haven't seen a winter storm warning here for a while. Btw RC, you guys had an incredible write up this afternoon. Was shocked DVN mentioned only the clipper and didn't talk about this storm at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I haven't paid too much attention to the mid week evolution, but just noticed that the Euro brings a mix clear up to the I 70 corridor or even slightly north of there into Jackstraw country. With the GFS trending that way, I might even need to worry about a wintry mix before it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: I haven't paid too much attention to the mid week evolution, but just noticed that the Euro brings a mix clear up to the I 70 corridor or even slightly north of there into Jackstraw country. With the GFS trending that way, I might even need to worry about a wintry mix before it's all said and done. Euro has actually nudged south on its last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: This is just one piece of the puzzle for the mid week system, but here's trend on last 5 GEFS runs toward stronger eastern CONUS ridging spreading farther westward, central troughing hanging back farther west and Pac ridging farther west. Valid time is Tuesday evening/00z Wednesday. It certainly doesn't hurt to have higher background height fields in the east with respect to getting the system to come farther north. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk The big thing to watch is where that cutoff west of Baja ends up, if it is further SW, that will help greatly because you won't stretch the vorticity back into it as the brunt pulls ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 0z gfs still not wanting to fully budge as far north as euro but isn't as south as before. Eager to see 0z euro to see if it holds or caves more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: 0z gfs still not wanting to fully budge as far north as euro but isn't as south as before. Eager to see 0z euro to see if it holds or caves more south Looked almost like its 12z and 0z GGEM didn't budge either. Has the heaviest of 10-12" along the Ohio River and 6-10" north to I-70 in IL/IN/OH and south to northern KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 00z GFS and GDPS still on track for a band of 0.3" qpf across Iowa from the lead wave Monday. With ratios of 15+ to 1 expected, this wave may be very similar to the one that dropped 5 inches here at the end of December. I would be thrilled with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Looked almost like its 12z and 0z GGEM didn't budge either. Has the heaviest of 10-12" along the Ohio River and 6-10" north to I-70 in IL/IN/OH and south to northern KY. What? There is no 10-12" along the OH River on the 00z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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