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Early February Hyperactivity


Stebo

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And here we go...the 12z GFS and GEM are already starting to back off on precip amounts over the next 10 days...dropping down to around 0.5" for much of the Midwest, compared to around 1" with last night's runs.  And the "bigger" storm for Days 6-7 is becoming more sheared out.

Somewhat surprised to see this, especially after last night's 00z Euro was much wetter per Chinook's post above.

Not concerned too much as of yet, since this is only a snapshot from 2 operational runs at long leads.  Hopefully the 12z GEFS and 12Z Euro will be more optimistic. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

12z GEM got less impressive with the system next week.

The way it evolved I would toss it, GEM and systems moving through the middle or southern Rockies just don't mix well. It does alright with northern stream energy but it completely lost with southern stream energy.

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22 minutes ago, buckeye said:

The euro has been lov'n NW Ohio all winter long in the 5-6 day range.  I think its given that area 20' of snow if you add all the fantasy storms up lol.   One of these times that squirrel is gonna find the nut...maybe its this time.

 

 

 

 

Euro has been a mess this winter. Hard to believe anything it shows especially 5+ days out. Just caught on to the Sunday storm so i'm sure it's clueless still on the Tuesday storm.

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Regarding the mid week system, the obvious point is that we need the stronger southern wave to get the significant synoptic system like depicted on the Euro. I'm not favoring either outcome at this point, other than that it's not a thread the needle deal like the early January system that ended up well east of Euro progs from a few days prior. Also, not going to focus on specific anecdotal model biases in terms of how they've performed this winter.

What I'm seeing in the background that would be potentially favorable for a Euro op like outcome or even farther north is a distinct ensemble trend the past few days of runs towards a stronger southeast ridge/western Atlantic ridge (possibly due to MJO wave influence). Contingent upon the strong southern stream wave, the background positive height anomalies/ridging would be further pumped by a strong wave.

Looking at the individual ensemble member plot on the Euro, most of the members that have a well defined surface low center are north/northwest of the ensemble mean, some north of the operational Euro. The remaining members have a weaker strung out trough that doesn't register as a surface low center on wxbell, similar to 12z GFS and many GEFS members. cf5e24d205c7a262e32f1ecde5101c3a.jpg8e6176ea2eaef1d8bb297361f96c7901.jpg1482d53f40d96170d14db88f724047c5.jpg

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1 minute ago, Angrysummons said:

Which means nothing. The fact is, those runs are very unlikely as the s/w isn't that strong. I doubt the Euro op is right either, it is to amped. You can't fight this winter. In the end, I doubt there is a overly large snowstorm from this.

The shortwave is strong it is just about how it evolves...

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Which means nothing. The fact is, those runs are very unlikely as the s/w isn't that strong. I doubt the Euro op is right either, it is to amped. You can't fight this winter. In the end, I doubt there is a overly large snowstorm from this.

You mean the wave that's way out in the Pacific and won't be coming ashore til Sunday evening on southwest British Columbia? I don't think you can assume perceived model biases will always hold in given scenarios. Could you be right? Sure.

 

The seasonal trends definitely give pause and I'm certainly not bullish on the setup yet with plenty of evidence pointing the other way. We've also seen multiple cases in the past where seasonal trends didn't apply. 120+ hours out is just too far to rule things out IMO.

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I'm not big on the seasonal trend thing for individual storms.  There's just too much going on in the atmosphere and of course it often comes down to timing/phasing for bigger storms.  The system next week could very well be a dud, but would it be because that's what we've been seeing a lot of this winter? Eh.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Boy the NAMs have the Saturday/Sunday system pretty damn far north.

The lack of phasing and amplification this winter is just ridiculous. It's really surprising to see just how progressive this winter has been. There is the potential for a SSW and consequent PV split and should it happen, maybe we'll see an end to this progressive pattern? 

Make or break type of winter. Hard to take any model solution >48 hours seriously. 

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not big on the seasonal trend thing for individual storms.  There's just too much going on in the atmosphere and of course it often comes down to timing/phasing for bigger storms.  The system next week could very well be a dud, but would it be because that's what we've been seeing a lot of this winter? Eh.

Agree 100%

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34 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Boy the NAMs have the Saturday/Sunday system pretty damn far north.

I have noticed this trend multiple times play out in the past. Models show a series of clippers hitting the same area within 7 days. Initially it looks to favor a band through Iowa and Illinois. As the time approaches the band shifts North to southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Then to northern Minnesota and the UP. By the time it happens the band is up in Manitoba and Ontario.

Not saying it will happen this time. But it wouldn't surprise me either. 

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Improvements aloft for mid week on 12z GFS and GEM versus previous 2 runs, not yet nearly enough for northern IL/northwest Indiana but changes aloft did result in a noteworthy northern expansion of precip shield at this longitude. Southern wave still gets squashed/sheared on Wednesday, but was a good bit stronger and farther west over southern Rockies into southern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Can also see increasing ridging out ahead via 500 mb height anomalies on tropical tidbits.

 

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Can't even keep track of these....seems we have an impulse tommorow into Sunday with some lake potential, than another Monday into Tuesday,and than I think another as referenced above by RC. Difficult to pin down which is which, and what areas of the forum will be impacted.

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57 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Improvements aloft for mid week on 12z GFS and GEM versus previous 2 runs, not yet nearly enough for northern IL/northwest Indiana but changes aloft did result in a noteworthy northern expansion of precip shield at this longitude. Southern wave still gets squashed/sheared on Wednesday, but was a good bit stronger and farther west over southern Rockies into southern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Can also see increasing ridging out ahead via 500 mb height anomalies on tropical tidbits.

 

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I don't really like this weekend's system too much as temps look to be marginal early on (especially in my area) which hurts amounts, though we'll see what the lake can provide.  So it means I am a bit more interested in that system early next week.  Even though there's a real possibility of the heavier band of snow going south, northern IL/northwest IN may at least get in on the initial band of precip... and temps at onset will be zero concern.

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26 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Only the GFS seems enamored with the idea of this trail slp area developing on Sunday. Rest of the models look like a clipper-like storm that's too far north for most of us for anything but -WTSN with the fropa.

 

Pretty good model agreement between the 12z GFS, 12z CMC, 12z Ukie and even the ICON on a good 3-6" across the GTA on the weekend system. Nam is currently the outlier with the slp tracking north of the region. 

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