February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Ginx snewx]

Tippy hitting the edibles? FYI there was a 590 last Feb

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Look at the majesty of this incredible west -NAO on the extended Euro and try to contain your awe ...

 

 

The red colors are lower heights.  Never understood why it’s done that way...

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, weathafella said:

The red colors are lower heights.  Never understood why it’s done that way...

ahahaha... good one

[Typhoon Tip]

welp.. .I had my doubts, and heh, still do  ... but, if it comes to fruition, can't say I mind.

I sort of start checking out after the perennial solar nadir ends on February 10 anyway ... Slow at first, and if the season's magnificent, yeah, I'll put it away and celebrate in hypocrisy with y'all...  But my own variation on unrealistic dreams are already visualizing the warm season.  

Too bad the clocks aren't already moved ahead ... then we might actually enjoy that after work.  

This Euro run?  It's spring man. Not sure that's even arguable beyond the expectation that no model really does that well that far out. But it terms the warm up with more SE ridging and no west based-NAO ...  That'll even start greening open fields 

[Damage In Tolland]

There it is. Tips annual ending winter post . Always during this week every year. As sure as the sky is blue. He ends it 

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

welp.. .I had my doubts, and heh, still do  ... but, if it comes to fruition, can't say I mind.

I sort of start checking out after the perennial solar nadir ends on February 10 anyway ... Slow at first, and if the season's magnificent, yeah, I'll put it away and celebrate in hypocrisy with y'all...  But my own variation on unrealistic dreams are already visualizing the warm season.  

Too bad the clocks aren't already moved ahead ... then we might actually enjoy that after work.  

This Euro run?  It's spring man. Not sure that's even arguable beyond the expectation that no model really does that well that far out. But it terms the warm up with more SE ridging and no west based-NAO ...  That'll even start greening open fields 

So the EPS does not migrate the block west at all?

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There it is. Tips annual ending winter post . Always during this week every year. As sure as the sky is blue. He ends it 

yeah ..the Euro model's depicting the end of winter had nothing to do with it...  

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So the EPS does not migrate the block west at all?

No idea - Scott I think has access to those ?  ask him  - 

 

[Ginx snewx]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There it is. Tips annual ending winter post . Always during this week every year. As sure as the sky is blue. He ends it 

GFS GEFS AND EPS all hint at a snow event 2/23 ish

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No idea - Scott I think has access to those ?  ask him  - 

 

SCOTT!!

[weathafella]

EPS getting wintry in the longer range.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weathafella said:

EPS getting wintry in the longer range.

Winter cancel uncancel

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Winter cancel uncancel

Thank you sir. Poor Chicago.

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah ..the Euro model's depicting the end of winter had nothing to do with it...  

Can't understand how a couple of warm days ends winter, think back to last Feb when you made the same post

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Can't understand how a couple of warm days ends winter, think back to last Feb when you made the same post

If you mean me, I never said that was the case.   I said THAT Euro run...  jesus you guys are sensy

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thank you sir. Poor Chicago.

Fukkem 

[Typhoon Tip]

well...I guess one take away here is that it's not everywhere across the domain space of this image that is above normal.. It's pretty local just how extreme this is...so, that doesn't lend to perpetuity

 

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you mean me, I never said that was the case.   I said THAT Euro run...  jesus you guys are sensy

but THAT Euro run has a couple of very warm days then a transition back to seasonable with a snow threat on the 23rd 24th

[LurkerBoy]

backdoor next week will probably mute the warmth

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

but THAT Euro run has a couple of very warm days then a transition back to seasonable with a snow threat on the 23rd 24th

I don't think seasonality is a fair and objective observation of that synoptic appeal in that time frame, Steve. It has the SE ridge in tact and lots of warmish 850 mb temps near by - which is spring-like.

That's the point.  And snow in the spring?  I think we can  both agree that's common around here. 

I think what's going to happen here over the next couple weeks is a lot of denial, and those objective observers that bring doses of reality ...spark vitriol from those steeped in it. 

If the model runs changes appreciably away from that look in future cycles, we can re-engage wintry appeals if/when necessary, but THAT run is spring-like.  There was no other point made -

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, Hazey said:

Someone posted on twitter. I think its high 20's in 70-71'

Surprised it was that winter, as New England generally had AN snowfall and BN temps, and most of NNE had much above snow - top snow winter on record for both BTV and PWM.

[Hazey]

Surprised it was that winter, as New England generally had AN snowfall and BN temps, and most of NNE had much above snow - top snow winter on record for both BTV and PWM.

It wasn't...lol. I looked a bit more and I was wrong on the year. The correct info was in a tweet that has long since been buried. I know it was in the 70's but not sure exactly what year.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

It wasn't...lol. I looked a bit more and I was wrong on the year. The correct info was in a tweet that has long since been buried. I know it was in the 70's but not sure exactly what year.

Good chance '73-'74 was the year...absolutely putrid in Maine.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

EPS getting wintry in the longer range.

Deterministic solutions are worthless in the long range.

[Damage In Tolland]

Long range stuff like EPS/ weeklies has lost the BN pattern, but does show storminess. So they’ll likely be lots of rain/ snow lines to track in Morch. Just don’t be expecting big events or all snow events . Not a great look with no cold 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Long range stuff like EPS/ weeklies has lost the BN pattern, but does show storminess. So they’ll likely be lots of rain/ snow lines to track in Morch. Just don’t be expecting big events or all snow events . Not a great look with no cold 

EPS is cold enough 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Deterministic solutions are worthless in the long range.

What are you trying to tell me?

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Long range stuff like EPS/ weeklies has lost the BN pattern, but does show storminess. So they’ll likely be lots of rain/ snow lines to track in Morch. Just don’t be expecting big events or all snow events . Not a great look with no cold 

So it's showing lots of small to medium storminess but no big storminess? 

 

[dendrite]

Low near 60F Tue night for BOS?

[78Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Low near 60F Tue night for BOS?

The GFS had a high here today of 56F.  We didn't get past 48F.