ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: While solution is possible, I’m not sure it’s gonna try to pull mini 1888. Yeah I'll sell...should be fun to track this though...this might be a good storm for little enhancement zones as the IVT look to start the storm could create some nice LL convergence and CF enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I'd put that down there on the list of possible solutions. Everyone should be assuming east. How many of these Miller B's pop like that and then ride inland? The whole east assumption is so 2015 lol. I think the west tug has worked out well, even if the last one didn’t quite get up to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'll sell...should be fun to track this though...this might be a good storm for little enhancement zones as the IVT look to start the storm could create some nice LL convergence and CF enhancement. Verbatim it was joy, tears, joy again. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The whole east assumption is so 2015 lol. I think the west tug has worked out well, even if the last one didn’t quite get up to you. lolol that's cute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 There is an awful lot of QPF available for this one, Split the difference in track with the Euro and GFS and lets go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Verbatim it was joy, tears, joy again. LOL. Of course that's what I was getting at, not a "rain" event. Pretty epic stuff right there. We track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 We really boxing each other already? wait until monday at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: There is an awful lot of QPF available for this one, Split the difference in track with the Euro and GFS and lets go. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Does the Euro start the snow Tuesday Pm or not till Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The whole east assumption is so 2015 lol. I think the west tug has worked out well, even if the last one didn’t quite get up to you. I disagree with you. N stream phasing is nornally a bit overmodeled until pretty close leads....this is also why they tend to trend toward slower development and capture right to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I don't like the bullseye up here at Day 5. That means congrat's Weymouth . Nah the VT posters have "locked this in' and therefore it will not change. We good. I like how this is like the photonegative of last week's blizzard. If you got squashed then, you miss this and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The timing of PNA breakdown and upstream ridging will wreak havoc with models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, klw said: Nah the VT posters have "locked this in' and therefore it will not change. We good. I like how this is like the photonegative of last week's blizzard. If you got squashed then, you miss this and vice versa. Not if you're dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 'nother aspect of this that's apparently slipped(ing) past most people's awareness is that the models are splitting next week into two systems... There's the lead clipper for early Tuesday ...which is really what the previous GFS/GGEM solutions were focused upon... Now, these runs are just coming around to the deeper trough solution and following southern and/or intermediate trough carving out into the TV that the Euro has had for several cycles... but they all do still carry a signature for a dying clipper to bring clouds and light stuff in, earlier than any main show down the coast. That's really what's going on next week. It's worth it to mention, because that lead light event could snow anyway, albeit light ... I think that's what the NAVGEM is actually using to turn that into a three day storm...it starts snowing using that lead deal, then sort of stalls it in wait of the deeper deal ... more than less melding the whole thing together. In fact, seeing the pressure pattern in the Euro suggesting air moving accross the thickness contours as soon as day 4 suggests even that model could start snowing sooner than the main coastal. Lot's of details being wasted on eyes that are trained to only see the perfect solution/potency of heroine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Wookiee Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Do not know if it is too early to start this. Some forecasts are calling for a two staged event. Starting Wed morning... taking a break and then picking up in the evening and going till Thursday morning with accumulations of 3-5" for SE CT and some calling for 1'. Anyone have some maps, data or thoughts for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'll sell...should be fun to track this though...this might be a good storm for little enhancement zones as the IVT look to start the storm could create some nice LL convergence and CF enhancement. looking at the track of the 500 mb balanced 700 --> surface....I suspect those 850 temps are too warm on the Euro at panel... what 120? even if so, that layer would last about 10 minutes in that overall evolution. jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I disagree with you. N stream phasing is nornally a bit overmodeled until pretty close leads....this is also why they tend to trend toward slower development and capture right to the end. We’ve had plenty of storms trend west over the last year and change. The whole east trend fear is voodoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Many would be happy with a EPS/OP compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 We found Jimmy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We found Jimmy! ...like did his eyes ever SEE that + 5 C overhead - hahahaha ... helluva a way to run a 'major blizzard' Oceanwx said it great, "...Do you ever interpret the models differently" Just teasin' ... yeah the Euro's too warm if the rest of that run is right - no question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 So as is... this Euro run is a moderate to major event of the blue-snow variety ...ending more powdery perhaps ...if also starting as light rain with embedded para's before going to a grid concern... I find it interesting that it is opting to speed this up by 6 to 9 hours or so...too. Not sure where that whiplash is coming from.. In fact, I actually cringed a little bit when I saw that 96 hour panel with a negative turning trough axis over Nashville TN... I was thinking it may curl up toward Buff and do a Cleveland bomb deal..but it swings it to VA Capes from there... It could back off that depth and that would suffice the VA Cape more intuitively, and spare the local users the Tobin Bridge, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Many would be happy with a EPS/OP compromise. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep Did you just agree with yourself? i just like the fact that the threat is on the table. I’d feel better in Woburn vs. Cape Ann, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep Share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Did you just agree with yourself? i just like the fact that the threat is on the table. I’d feel better in Woburn vs. Cape Ann, but who knows. 110k posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The timing of PNA breakdown and upstream ridging will wreak havoc with models. I think the PNA ridge causing our PV lobe dropping down from the arctic is well modeled at this point considering current guidance and that aspect being inside 72 hours. I think the NAO is the more important variable right now. The progressive look along the east coast is def indicative of a ++NAO, with the fast westerlies and cold pressing east (instead of south/east). That's our greatest enemy right now. If we can lose the +NAO or even maintain slightly positive, I think we can get a 12z euro type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We’ve had plenty of storms trend west over the last year and change. The whole east trend fear is voodoo. No it isn't, dude. This is more N stream dominant than those that relentlessly trend west. I'm not saying it can't hug, but its likely going more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Here is the 12z EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No it isn't, dude. This is more N stream dominant than those that relentlessly trend west. I'm not saying it can't hug, but its likely going more progressive. I’m speaking in a general sense. I’m not fearing an east trend with a deep East coast trough. I’m not saying a model can’t be too amped, but that ain’t out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I think the PNA ridge causing our PV lobe dropping down from the arctic is well modeled at this point considering current guidance and that aspect being inside 72 hours. I think the NAO is the more important variable right now. The progressive look along the east coast is def indicative of a ++NAO, with the fast westerlies and cold pressing east (instead of south/east). That's our greatest enemy right now. If we can lose the +NAO or even maintain slightly positive, I think we can get a 12z euro type solution. I meant that small variation in the timing of the PNA breakdown will have large implications...not that the PNA is currently modeled poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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