dryslot Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Correct but there was never a concise signal for it. It's morphing into a later signal by a day or 2 I feel. Look at the MOS #s and I've seen them pushed out a day. 2 on Tuesday, 8 on Weds, Nothing on Thurs is what i see, All a moot point if we are looking at a day 6 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: 2 on Tuesday, 8 on Weds, Nothing on Thurs is what i see. Yeah but that was an 8 and 8 if I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah but that was an 8 and 8 if I recall. It was, Just tells me, Its backing off from a bigger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It's coming Jerry's new friend Navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: It's coming Jerry's new friend Navgem Tucky tucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: EURO amped, the rest are whiffs. Ensembles better. I like where we sit. No rest arent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: It was, Just tells me, Its backing off from a bigger event. Did the same thing with the blizzard...it waivers with guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: OP Euro is by far the most amplified out of all the guidance. Obviously you hedge toward something less robust at this point. Save a horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Tip, I'd also argue that the GFS SLP should be tucked in better than depicted currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It's coming Jerry's new friend Navgem And it’s Tuesday/ Wed. Not sure where this notion of a Thursday storm came from . The earlier ideas are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s going to snow.. just not a foot like the Euro has for us Fairly reasonable prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 That's def a deeper 5H on the GFS...whiffed us this run, but at this time range, that's fine. If your fetish is the huge event...this is a good step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And it’s Tuesday/ Wed. Not sure where this notion of a Thursday storm came from . The earlier ideas are correct It could go into Thursday morning if the slower evolution is correct like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That's def a deeper 5H on the GFS...whiffed us this run, but at this time range, that's fine. If your fetish is the huge event...this is a good step. Huge event def. in the cards....I kind of feel as though it will be all or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It could go into Thursday morning if the slower evolution is correct like the Euro. Yes...favored period all along imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes...favored period all along imo. I though it was the first week of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: I though it was the first week of March? For this event? I'm confused... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It could go into Thursday morning if the slower evolution is correct like the Euro. Well it’s always looked like days of snows with currier and Ives stuff.. but the meat of it should fall Tuesday pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Well it’s always looked like days of snows with currier and Ives stuff.. but the meat of it should fall Tuesday pm It’s looking like it could be more Wednesday Thursday now. The GFS with that crap set up Tuesday hopefully won’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s looking like it could be more Wednesday Thursday now. The GFS with that crap set up Tuesday hopefully won’t happen. That lead wave is a piece that need to get out of the way some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s looking like it could be more Wednesday Thursday now. The GFS with that crap set up Tuesday hopefully won’t happen. Might need to watch for OES CJ on late Tuesday or Tues night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 JC, sorry...that was my bad. I just meant the Wed-Thursday time period was always flagged over Tues-Wed....but the idea of another large event in such rapid sucession is a suprise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Might need to watch for OES CJ on late Tuesday or Tues night too. We watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 ... the slower solutions have more plausibility as there is an apparent gradient relaxation everywhere, next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Nice changes on the gfs, imo. Kinda gets the north stream out the way and develops a better sw rounding the base for more southern interaction. Still misses but me likey. Now the euro will bomb the region at 12z, Bob will start the event thread, DIT will change his mind to “thats many feet”, TFlizz will say “wake me on Wed”, and MPM will b*tch euro only gave him .8 qpf. Lets go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: ... the slower solutions have more plausibility as there is an apparent gradient relaxation everywhere, next week. I think that is connected to all of the mass field shifts...that is one way to eradicate a steep geopotential medium in short order- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Since this is the model thread, weeklies anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Euro and Navgem are virtually identical UKMET and D Icon are very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This is more interesting than what we were seeing prior to last nights 00z Euro. All options still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice changes on the gfs, imo. Kinda gets the north stream out the way and develops a better sw rounding the base for more southern interaction. Still misses but me likey. Now the euro will bomb the region at 12z, Bob will start the event thread, DIT will change his mind to “thats many feet”, TFlizz will say “wake me on Wed”, and MPM will b*tch euro only gave him .8 qpf. Lets go! Yeah, gonna likely wait till late Saturday at this point if the threat is real. This was a marked change int he 5h appearance on the GFS so it'll interesting to see what the other globals do as well as ensm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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