Round Hill WX Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Isn’t JI supposed to be in the Ohio forum trolling right now? So how far are we from something fun for Saturday? A few more trending ticks east? Pop a secondary on the coast possible? The low does reform but most likely well to our northeast. Our most likely frozen scenario(if it occurs) would be ice instead of snow, as the 700mb low tracks well west of the surface low, therefore thermals are too warm for snow until we dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Tick is out, stretch is the new word East man. East! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 51 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie has the clipper on day 6 off the 12z run. Similar to Euro. But like yesterday, the EPS like to our north. BUT, it's good to see the more skilled operationals bringing it to our south a wee bit. Euro an UKMEt look similar to the January 2005 snowstorm. Something to watch, future runs may show some decent snow from Philly north, while we get screwed with 3-6". http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro an UKMEt look similar to the January 2005 snowstorm. Something to watch, future runs may show some decent snow from Philly north, while we get screwed with 3-6". http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html I’d be fine with 3-6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’d be fine with 3-6” Yea, 3-6" this winter /= screwed. lol. It would be a good reason to run naked in the streets though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Tick is out, stretch is the new word Let's go with boob. Just 1 to 2 more boobs east and we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’d be fine with 3-6” For some of us 6” would be 1/4 of our climo. Yeah I would take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: For some of us 6” would be 1/4 of our climo. Yeah I would take that. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Remember it is not even in the 5 day window yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3-6 would lead to some serious weenie party hardy times (insert joke here) Oh. I see Chill now throwing boobs into the mix. Ummmm. Ok. Back to weather. LOLz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 @Amped screwed with 3-6"??? That was a win. We got 3-6" from a pure northern stream miller b. Those are typically total fails. And it wasn't some big bust once the models lost the stj idea around 3-4 days out it became obvious that's what it was going to be. Unless you believed that crazy DT map he put out the night before. If you think a 3-6" snow is being screwed you live in the wrong place or you just setting yourself up to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6" would eclipse what I got all last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I recall a rumble or two of thunder with that storm. I'd take it this year in a heartbeat too, and stop looking at radar once the last flake fell. Lol. I remember hoping against hope that the precip would keep backing west, but no dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 GFS looks like the euro now. Interesting. How far east can we will this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GFS looks like the euro now. Interesting. How far east can we will this thing? Think the boob idea is helping. It usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 A few more boobs SE like the gfs and we may get some flakes in the western burbs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS looks like the euro now. Interesting. How far east can we will this thing? We need to will it southeast over Virginia and North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 14 hours ago, MountainGeek said: Thanks for the insight. Sounds like we're trying to use finite compute resources running imperfect agorithms to model irreducible complexity inside a chaotic system, all with pinpoint accuracy. Rather than bashing the models, I'd say it's pretty impressive that they've come as far as they have over the last several years. And I think many people unfairly penalize a model when it gets a few minor details wrong IMBY or is off by 50 miles, completely missing the fact that it nailed all the large scale features from a few days out. This. That's how I feel. Rather then complain that we can't predict all the intricate variables like heat transfer between plants, soil, water, air and solar radiation input to model the entire atmosphere with pinpoint accuracy from 7 days away I marvel that we can even come close. The level of math we're talking about requires genius level expertise. Maybe it's because I have at least some knowledge of what goes on behind the curtain here but it seems disrespectful the way some trash what to me is a marvel of modern science constructed by truly brilliant dedicated people. Furthermore picking out DCs next snow from 200 hours isn't the point. We do this for fun. That's fine. The point of numeric weather prediction is to try to save lives. The warning time on life threatening weather has been extended drastically with NWP and it saves lives. We haven't yet advanced to the point of seeing specific details at long leads. Once in a while under the right circumstances the guidance will and it should be celebrated as a victory of our scientific advancement not a bar to declare everything else a failure. People are misusing the models. It's fine for us to look at them and dream and discuss fantasy storms for fun but to then get frustrated when some unicorn storm doesn't work out and declare the guidance useless is ignorant. I should probably just ignore some people. But I get heated when people who have no idea what they're talking about are throwing stones and questioning the integrity of hard working dedicated people. Way too much of that going on in general nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS looks like the euro now. Interesting. How far east can we will this thing? any suicides in Columbus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 This Saturday thing is getting weaker and weaker at the H5 every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS looks like the euro now. Interesting. How far east can we will this thing? If it's like a week ago, we can will it to our doorsteps for a pity inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: any suicides in Columbus? Me growing up there in the 80s, a decade where I learned just how often snowstorms could miss central Ohio. A lot. It was a lot of ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: any suicides in Columbus? They've gone from 14" to 4-5" in just 24 hours or so. Still time to get to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: They've gone from 14" to 4-5" in just 24 hours or so. Still time to get to zero. It happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: It happens Yea, we'll be feeling the same next week but at least the NE will get another good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we'll be feeling the same next week but at least the NE will get another good hit. We can only hope, they deserve it. I'm in Rochester New York and it's 45 degrees and not really all that much snow on the ground. They need more here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: We can only hope, they deserve it. I'm in Rochester New York and it's 45 degrees and not really all that much snow on the ground. They need more here too We really do here in the Boston area. I mean over 25" of powder at this point for the season is just not enough But seriously I hope you guys can cash in on something soon. Last year was just pitiful down there. Or just do like me and move up here. I know, easier said than done but climo is awesome up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we'll be feeling the same next week but at least the NE will get another good hit. Which thankfully is exactly what the 18z GfS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said: We really do here in the Boston area. I mean over 25" of powder at this point for the season is just not enough But seriously I hope you guys can cash in on something soon. Last year was just pitiful down there. Or just do like me and move up here. I know, easier said than done but climo is awesome up here I'd much prefer to get less snow than live in a place like Boston. Thanks for reminding me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 That' probably a good thing. Keep boobing it east , I'm mean trending east..lol In reply to interstate. H5 trending weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Dare I say we might have a haboob on our hands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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