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mackerel_sky

The January 7-8th possible CAD storm

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FFC is putting ZR in the grids for the North Metro already, which is surprising. For ATL, this whole event hinges on how fast the wedge erodes, but I suspect upstate SC and W NC will have less issues with that.

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1 minute ago, drfranklin said:

Mack, this may be our storm - no ice! just some sleet and snow (I did purchase a Honda EU2000i generator prior to Xmas at HD - only $899!)

It is about time we cashed in. I'm going all in. I do fear this will be a sleet/ frozen rain event with not much snow as the CAD will be around much longer than the models show. 

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3 minutes ago, Justincobbco said:

Oh wow! Isn't the National College football championship in Atl this Monday emoji50.png


.

I didn't even think of that.  Lots of people driving between athens and Atlanta Monday.  I would say this one looks good at this point, but I said that about the last one that completely disappeared.  If we can't get something out of all this cold air and snow north and east of us then we are truly in a sad state of affairs.  

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14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GEFS gives a lot of support for something frozen! Euro looking slower to start but a lot colder and  negative dewpoints in the CAD regions!

Looking way out in fantasy land, looks volatile every time I glance at something, trying to see how pattern will shake out as we enter 2cnd half of winter. seems like energy is flying around everywhere. 

Should return to normal mid next week cause air will be of pacific origin instead of Artic, but after that its up in the air. Everyones, mine included thought La nina would roll in and winter would end mid JAN. But it doesnt have that feel / look to it. We shall see, Im guessing we get a few more cold interuptions and everyone will get a couple more shots at frozen. But it will take good timing/luck as always.

This upcoming event will have no trouble locking in the duration and staying below freezing in the heart of Cad areas if the moisture arrives at the right time.

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3pm Discussion from FFC:

Quote
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
A few changes were needed to the weather grids for Sunday night into
early Morning, mainly for p-type. In addition, adjusted the MaxT
grids for Monday, especially in areas contained within the wedge.

A wintry mix is still possible Sunday night into early Monday
morning. A strong wedge will be in place across much of northern GA
during this time period. Surface temperatures will be at or just
below freezing within the wedge, and with warmer temperatures aloft,
the potential for freezing rain will increase. It is still too early
to definitively delineate exactly where any wintry mix will occur
and any accumulations.

Models tend to want to wipe the wedge out a lot sooner than actually
occurs. This is forecasted to be a pretty strong wedge...so am
concerned about the high temperatures on Monday. Have adjusted
values downward a few degrees within the wedged area, and values
could go even lower if the surface low to the south and/or
precipitation ends up re-enforcing the cold air in place.

Interests across northern GA, including the Atlanta metro should
continue to monitor later forecasts. The forecast will likely
change, it is still 4-5 days out. Any small shift in a low pressure
track...or even timing...could vastly affect the forecast.

NListemaa

 

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

18z NAM still looks solidly cold/dry for the potential event. At hour 84 the surface low is farther south than the GFS and the dew points are a lot lower, especially down into GA.   

Yep.  It’s a shame that low is taking so long to move east.

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There’s a huge difference at 84 between the GEM and NAM on low location. GEM is almost over Joplin while the NAM is 75 miles NW of Houston.

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Boom goes the GFS ! Heavier precip, nice wedge sigi!

We're almost there, I'd feel better if we were about 6-8 hours earlier.

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6 minutes ago, J.C. said:

Early Monday on the NAM 12km.

GFS has continued to trend colder and colder with temps on Monday.

It does not matter if wetbulbs are 20 degrees, if the low tracks north. we can kiss any winter p-type bye bye. 

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12 minutes ago, J.C. said:

Early Monday on the NAM 12km.

GFS has continued to trend colder and colder with temps on Monday.

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_52.png

namconus_T2m_seus_53.png

I thought precip was supposed to start in N GA by early Monday morning? According to that it's still way back in Western AL.

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8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

It does not matter if wetbulbs are 20 degrees, if the low tracks north. we can kiss any winter p-type bye bye. 

In general, i think you have that backwards.  If the wet bulb is 20 and Precip falls, it doesn’t matter where the low goes.

TW

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