Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: That is only out to 18z tomorrow.... more after that.... But 6" is basically the max on the rgem until you get to eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: But 6" is basically the max on the rgem until you get to eastern LI Yea I know but in any case it still is low without a question..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: the precip shield has been expanding to the west and more robust steadily on all models. A sub-960mb mid-latitude cyclone will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The trough is a good bit sharper on the 12z GFS through 15hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Definitely more interaction with the trough this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Rittenhouse said: A sub-960mb mid-latitude cyclone will do that. Who would have thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The trough is a good bit sharper on the 12z GFS through 15hrs. Keeping up with the Konvections... is that good? bad? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Still hooks East near 38N like the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Go look at the 25 run of the gfs trend...earth light posted on Twitter..insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS QPF should line up with RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Slightly west with the precip field, again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 .75 line on Nassau/Suffolk border. 1 inch line mid Suffolk county. 50-60 miles shift would get that into the boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 One thing about this storm too, it's a fast mover, that's going to limit totals some, even if this is a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I’ll take and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: GFS QPF should line up with RGEM Yes, and they are both under doing the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS looked a decent amount better, especially from my area and east. Probably verbatim would be a foot east of Islip and 6" into Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I’ll take and run Nice shift west We still have a little time for 1 or 2 more shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: GFS QPF should line up with RGEM Please do not compare the two models lol.... RGEM was way low on total qpf... GFS is still playing catch up like it always does. i believe that this is a 4-8/5-10 storm for the area with potential for much more across eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Yes, and they are both under doing the QPF. Gfs is pretty useless with regard to qpf. Not saying it's wrong but usually take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRRR has been consistently way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 A closed surface low and a closed 850mb. low, seem to be forming near 30N 80W right now. Pressure is nominal at 1013mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The stingy amount of QPF it shows is a big red flag. Given the the track and the storm bombing out, why is it spitting out clipper type numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: HRRR has been consistently way east. Look at where is starts the LP. With the convection way east of where the LP is currently located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: The stingy amount of QPF it shows is a big red flag. Given the the track and the storm bombing out, why is it spitting out clipper type numbers? But the red flag as in to toss it or busting ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The NNW flow at the mid-levels makes me wonder if that is why the models are spitting out low amounts relative to other factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: The stingy amount of QPF it shows is a big red flag. Given the the track and the storm bombing out, why is it spitting out clipper type numbers? Could be the sloppy phase and too much energy entering on the backside of the trough trying to constantly push this thing east, also the low begins to become vertically stacked by our latitude. With that said whomever gets underneath the death band/s will experience some much higher amounts because this is after all a storm coming from the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NNW flow at the mid-levels makes me wonder if that is why the models are spitting out low amounts relative to other factors Yup I agree Could envision a final outcome where some 30 to 50 mile wide swaths that get underneath any intense banding could experience some crazy totals while the general rest of the region here experiences more anemic results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, David-LI said: HRRR has been consistently way east. And consistently out of range. Shouldn't even be looked at until late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Cmc stays consistent in jackpotting cape may and giving the northeast next to nothing.. even Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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