UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: One thing that I haven't seen much talk about, is that this system seems to have a very strong Eastern side. I wonder if that's because it has some hybrid or warm core characteristics? Earlier model runs had that double barreled low, struggling with that strong convection. I can't keep but wonder if models have that Northeast quadrant too intense, and are wrongfully dragging the surface low towards it. I'm still convinced we will see a band set up somewhere between NEPA and Long island, I think the convection over the atlantic is too strong, and the Neg tilt wont hurt either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, MANDA said: Very reasonable forecast based off current guidance. Anything above those numbers is wishcasting. While the forecast is very reasonable bumping up those numbers slightly would not be wishcasting IMO. The globals continue to increase QPF with each run and the meso's in general have a higher QPF output and then there are the better than climo ratio's in some locales. Look at the water vapor loop and radar and tell me that higher totals would be such a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Euro has 6 inches for NYC with more in NJ and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 500mb jet is certainly negatively tilted on the Euro, and it should be drawing the system up and in rather than up and out. Are we not dealing with the kicker now? What would be causing it’s easterly track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: While the forecast is very reasonable bumping up those numbers slightly would not be wishcasting IMO. The globals continue to increase QPF with each run and the meso's in general have a higher QPF output and then there are the better than climo ratio's in some locales. Look at the water vapor loop and radar and tell me that higher totals would be such a surprise. Agreed. Right now I'm thinking 4-10 in the city (higher end stretched for boom potential), general 3-6 just west of the city, with a whole range of higher amounts out on the island. But making calls at this point is more an attempt at being correct than accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ILoveWinter said: Are we not dealing with the kicker now? What would be causing it’s easterly track? Bernie Rayno seems to think that the reason for the Eastern track is because the models were initially focusing on that lead vort that I've been mentioning for over a week now and are finally correcting West because they are realizing that the shortwave over the deep South is the one that generates the storm. He says the problem after that is because the trough isn't negatively tilted enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Bernie Rayno seems to think that the reason for the Eastern track is because the models were initially focusing on that lead vort that I've been mentioning for over a week now and are finally correcting West because they are realizing that the shortwave over the deep South is the one that generates the storm. He says the problem after that is because the trough isn't negatively tilted enough. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Most recent NWS map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Thanks What factors might enhance a higher negative tilt at this juncture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 500mb jet is certainly negatively tilted on the Euro, and it should be drawing the system up and in rather than up and out. Excellent post. We need more posts like this using meteorology rather just relying on QPF outputs. I think the euro is solid on the far western side but way underdone where the deform should be over the eastern part of subforum. The Twin forks are going to have a real blizzard with 3” rates and 60mph wind gusts. Similar to what the city had during Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm still convinced we will see a band set up somewhere between NEPA and Long island, I think the convection over the atlantic is too strong, and the Neg tilt wont hurt either Yup. Painting a west to east gradient is probably necessary for forecasting right now, but it isn't going to work out that way. 12+ under a good def band could happen over the twin forks, or it could be well west of that. NNJ is probably a stretch, but there could be some good snows close to the western edge of this thing. HV isn't a lock for only light to moderate snows yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Fwiw Eps is west of the op and wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Fwiw Eps is west of the op and wetter The mean snowfall map is very similar to the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Fwiw latest Deep Thunder posted in the MA forum in the Jan 4th Coastal thread on page 46. Way west. Take with a grain of salt. 12.2 Manhattan 15.4 Hartford 8 Boston 10.8 Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I highly doubt that there will be any major changes this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, snow1 said: I highly doubt that there will be any major changes this close to the event. Cause that never happens lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, snow1 said: I highly doubt that there will be any major changes this close to the event. Huh? Changes from what? No one is close to any sort of certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Fwiw latest Deep Thunder posted in the MA forum in the Jan 4th Coastal thread on page 46. Way west. Take with a grain of salt. 12.2 Manhattan 15.4 Hartford 8 Boston 10.8 Philly Huge run to run vacillations; the new RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Fwiw latest Deep Thunder posted in the MA forum in the Jan 4th Coastal thread on page 46. Way west. Take with a grain of salt. 12.2 Manhattan 15.4 Hartford 8 Boston 10.8 Philly Seems legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm still convinced we will see a band set up somewhere between NEPA and Long island, I think the convection over the atlantic is too strong, and the Neg tilt wont hurt either Of course! Ctrl Mon County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Radar down south - noticing increasing convection just off of Myrtle Beach SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Isn't the snow shield down South further West than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, White Gorilla said: Isn't the snow shield down South further West than modeled? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The GOES-East (16) water vapor images are stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Isn't the snow shield down South further West than modeled? Usually I'd say weenie, but yes and that convection right off the coast is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can you explain to the common folk?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I like this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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