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Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The HRDPS is just hi res RGEM...always been around, it’s just new on tidbits..always had on wxbell...it’s basically 2.5k resolution 

Yeah I wasn't aware of it till they added it. I like it though. I think it will be a reliable tool for more people going forward. 

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4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Wow with 10:1 ratios double digit totals very close to JFK....with 15:1 ratios a foot in lower Manhattan!

 

Has double digits to Newark with 15:1 ratios.

 

12+ eastern LI with 10:1 ratios close to 20" there with 15:1 ratios.

I doubt 15:1 until well north and West of the city

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Those who did not buy into the globals' idea of double barrel were spot on. 

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15 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said:

Never thought

I'd see the day

when the N.A.M.

would lead the way.

It happens more than you would think.  People have short memories.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

In the mid-range the CMC and RGEM really nailed this system. I think they were the only ones that had the storm impacting us for a long time. I'll give them kudos for that much. 

Yes they had us getting snow but very light QPF. They had Long Island and Boston getting 3 inches late last night and early today. Only until very recently did QPF increase. 

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No model is better than any other. They all have their limitations and fallacies. Looking at aspects depicted by the models combined with climatology and other experiences and knowledge leads to accurate forecasts. It’s not solely based on ANY model. Computer models are guidance. Not a roulette table you throw money on. 

 

Our mets and knowledgeable posters have far more to give to us than individual models runs. 

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8 minutes ago, Snowberd said:


Lol, we’re starving over here, I’m so autistic that I’m trying to pinpoint Oceanside on the canal to see if we snuck in at the 1.1 qpf level (yellow) I think we just made it in! “yes I’m a pathetic weenie” emoji23.png


.

I think we were right on the eastern edge of the 30 inch totals in Jan 2016.  Oceanside was the furthest east I remember seeing them in the PNS.  That's for the north shore though I do remember a 30 inch total in Hicksville  too.

I'm just glad this won't be a repeat of 2005-06 that was a truly pitiful winter when you compare to what the city got.  They got a 6" snow in December which was all rain for Long Island (even the north shore!) and got 26" in Feb 2006 that we got half those totals (13" in Oceanside) the only time we beat them was that renegade snow band in April when we picked up 2" in like 2 hours during the day and they only got 0.1" (but which got them to 40" on the season and we had a paltry 25" on the season- less than the city got in that one storm in February!)

 

I think double digits will make it as far west as JFK maybe even Manhattan.

 

 

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Just now, Nibor said:

No model is better than any other. They all have their limitations and fallacies. Looking at aspects depicted by the models combined with climatology and other experiences and knowledge leads to accurate forecasts. It’s not solely based on ANY model. Computer models are guidance. Not a roulette table you throw money on. 

 

Our mets and knowledgeable posters have far more to give to us than individual models runs. 

Euro

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3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It happens more than you would think.  People have short memories.

There's a specific type of system it does really well in (where convection is involved) and I think this its 3rd good outcome this season so maybe since the upgrade it now does better in other circumstances too.

 

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39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I doubt 15:1 until well north and West of the city

12:1 might be more reasonable.  I wouldn't go down to 10:1 though.

 

12:1 would still get double digit totals to Manhattan :)

 

 

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15 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

The decent snowpack we'll have after this will make it even colder later this week..sub zero mornings incoming for some

hopefully for all lol

I want to see double digit snowfall, single digit high and at least -2 low.

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7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

There's a specific type of system it does really well in (where convection is involved) and I think this its 3rd good outcome this season so maybe since the upgrade it now does better in other circumstances too.

 

It has been my go to model within 36 hours since it was the ETA...and people used to trash talk it then too.  The difference now is that it is often good out to 84.

 

Edit: Not that this egg has hatched yet, but I do like the NAM.  The truth is there are going to be some mesoscale stuff that some of the models may have hinted at, but none will have nailed.  Someone is going to get crushed and that detail really is still somewhat of a mystery.

 

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1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It has been my go to model within 36 hours since it was the ETA...and people used to trash talk it then too.  The difference now is that it is often good out to 84.

Yes and I remember how it was ridiculed before even at 48 hours let alone 84 lol.....  First major hit I remember with it was Jan 1996 (along with the Euro, old E/E rule) but it's caught on to quite a few monster storms.

 

 

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9 hours ago, psv88 said:

What are your thoughts for our areas?

If I had noticed this 9 hours ago I would have said 10".  Now I'm thinking we may be a little higher than that.  This could honestly be better than 12/26/2010 in our neck of the woods.  At least that thought has been creeping around in my head today.

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9 minutes ago, Snowberd said:

Is there any way to change the title of this thread from Fish Bomb to Nam Bomb? lol


.

No, you don't need up the good juju.

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while not perfect, this will be a big win for deep thunder. it over-intensifies lows, as we learned during the hurricane season, and it does have some other major flaws (particularly summertime convection), but i think it has out-performed all the other guidance this round.

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I think we were right on the eastern edge of the 30 inch totals in Jan 2016.  Oceanside was the furthest east I remember seeing them in the PNS.  That's for the north shore though I do remember a 30 inch total in Hicksville  too.
I'm just glad this won't be a repeat of 2005-06 that was a truly pitiful winter when you compare to what the city got.  They got a 6" snow in December which was all rain for Long Island (even the north shore!) and got 26" in Feb 2006 that we got half those totals (13" in Oceanside) the only time we beat them was that renegade snow band in April when we picked up 2" in like 2 hours during the day and they only got 0.1" (but which got them to 40" on the season and we had a paltry 25" on the season- less than the city got in that one storm in February!)
 
I think double digits will make it as far west as JFK maybe even Manhattan.
 
 

Impressed with your historic knowledge. Can you offer an meteorological explanation as to why it’s almost a constant that this particular part of the island gets shafted so much?


.

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Latest goes IR is amazing.

You can clearly see the LLC and at least as of now it is tracking just east of due north.

Tapping moisture from near Panama!

IR link:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-14-96-1-50

WV link:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-08-96-1-50

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1 hour ago, Snowberd said:


Impressed with your historic knowledge. Can you offer an meteorological explanation as to why it’s almost a constant that this particular part of the island gets shafted so much?


.

Thanks...I've asked myself and others that many times lol.

From what I can tell, being close to the ocean promotes a certain level of stability and that kills convection just like it does with thunderstorms.  Convective snow bands are an important part of winter snowstorms (unless you're dealing with SWFE events, but in those we often change over first, so you can't win either way lol.)

The other thing is if you're going to be near the ocean at least be further east so you can be closer to where the bombing out Miller B's are.

We're kind of in a dead zone, worst of all possible worlds.

 

We often do best when the mix line gets close to us but never makes it here- this was the case with Jan 2016.  We were in an ideal location between colder, much drier air just to our north, and the mix line just to our south.

 

Also, with the exception of Jan 1996, all the 20+ inch storms I've seen in this area have come in moderate to strong el ninos.

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9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

while not perfect, this will be a big win for deep thunder. it over-intensifies lows, as we learned during the hurricane season, and it does have some other major flaws (particularly summertime convection), but i think it has out-performed all the other guidance this round.

We should petition IBM to change the name to Thor

 

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14 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If I had noticed this 9 hours ago I would have said 10".  Now I'm thinking we may be a little higher than that.  This could honestly be better than 12/26/2010 in our neck of the woods.  At least that thought has been creeping around in my head today.

That was  a little over a foot there, I think?  If the winds are near that intensity, it'll be amazing.

High winds and drifts are an underrated aspect of the "snowstorm experience."

 

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

If this doesn’t get you excited for tomorrow, I don’t know what will. Absolutely epic look.

5EF650DD-1B69-4435-8900-DFA5DF2C04FD.thumb.jpeg.cd577fb17c421144bb0f2d1865d9e0e7.jpeg

Reminds me of the Presidents’ Day storm of 79. Just an epic shot 

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