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H2O

JAN 4th Coastal

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Last 2 3k NAM runs:

nam3km_asnow_neus_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.f97cb2e0472d0b09c3e117b71cb2f123.gif

A little inconsistent :lol:. Good trend though. Too bad it's pretty tough to even get precip past I-95 given this setup. 

Always divide the NAM precip by half, you'll be less disappointed when the flakes stop falling 

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Wow. If the GFS takes a decent (not a tick) jump west—-it’s game on. Quite an important run coming up assuming the upper disturbance serves as a pull as opposed to a kicker.  I know, I just made a Hail Mary sound like a screen pass but I’m trying to keep hope alive. 

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The nams may have made a big jump and that's obviously suspect but the reasons they did started inside of 24 hours. Rgem and gefs are next in line to mess with our minds. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That tells the story. The heavy snow is coming due north at us then turns east. That's the storm hitting the northern stream. If they're not phasing we need the northern stream to be slower to let this thing bull rush another 50-75 miles north before that interaction takes place. 

How much worse can our luck be? Trust me,  that was rhetorical because a rational answer to that question would sadly take hours to finish. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Sorry, meant to say the heavier precip. 

I get snow so happy as a pig in sh**...digital for now but I do like the trend

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IF the NAM is believable, it wouldn't take much of a northwest trend over the next 4 runs or so to push Winter Storm Warning level snows into our area. I mean, look at the huge jump it just made from 18z to 0z. Easton went up 8 inches. Places just west of the bay in So MD went from a dusting to a warning level storm. There are reasons for serious hope. I'm not sure if that's a good thing at this point or not but.......

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We should probably distinguish between the 12k NAM and 3k NAM in this discussion.  From what I've seen, the 3k NAM is a big improvement over the 12k.  If one of the two NAMs is going to give me snow, that's the one I'd want.

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2 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Wow. If the GFS takes a decent (not a tick) jump west—-it’s game on. Quite an important run coming up assuming the upper disturbance serves as a pull as opposed to a kicker.  I know, I just made a Hail Mary sound like a screen pass but I’m trying to keep hope alive. 

It's going to be a kicker. That's almost certain. We just need it to be lazy and slow about it. And hope the nam tracks are correct.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's going to be a kicker. That's almost certain. We just need it to be lazy and slow about it. And hope the nam tracks are correct.

Do we have any analogs for storms with kickers like this? Do we know if the model overdoes the speed of the kicker? This could be the difference between 1" and 4" for DC. 4" seems like the biggest stretch either way atm. Only storm I can think of is Jan 2000, but that's still different. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yoda, please translate the pencil and crayon scribbles into inches. k thanks

10mm line reaches DCA and east... which is about 0.4" QPF

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Oh hai der 00z RGEM at 36 hours

 

 

It wouldn’t be a storm in the MA if not for those awful B&W preschooler maps.  I can’t even pretend to decipher that besides a lot of tightly wound isobars.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yoda, please translate the pencil and crayon scribbles into inches. k thanks

The way he described it, it's either really good, or really bad. I kinda don't want to know which one is right. 

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I remember a storm in 1998 or 1999 that was calling for little accumulation all day and the Fox 5 10:00 news came on and the totals jumped way up to 8+ bc the Low hugged closer to the coast at the last minute. Point being—powerful Low pressure in Hatteras near the coast can be unpredictable until 6-12 hours out 

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Just now, nj2va said:

It wouldn’t be a storm in the MA if not for those awful B&W preschooler maps.  I can’t even pretend to decipher that besides a lot of tightly wound isobars.

That's why we wait for Yoda to deliver the goods ;) 

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Just now, Cobalt said:

The way he described it, it's either really good, or really bad. I kinda don't want to know which one is right. 

Good

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Just now, Hurricanegiants said:

I remember a storm in 1998 or 1999 that was calling for little accumulation all day and the Fox 5 10:00 news came on and the totals jumped way up to 8+ bc the Low hugged closer to the coast at the last minute. Point being—powerful Low pressure in Hatteras near the coast can be unpredictable until 6-12 hours out 

Wasn't that Jan 25, 2000, or is this another storm I'm not hearing of. Jan 25 matches that description. 

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8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The NAM with three versions to choose from is a weenies dream. I’m still out.

 

     No.    The 3 km and 12 km are different versions.   The 32 km is the 12 km version interpolated to a coarser output grid.

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Wasn't that Jan 25, 2000, or is this another storm I'm not hearing of. Jan 25 matches that description. 

Yes but Wes showed us this is not that storm.  But it’s getting a little fun now

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

10mm line reaches DCA and east... which is about 0.4" QPF

oooh, now we're talking. All 3 mesos jumped at the same time. RGEM has been too generous with QPF lately but with .4 we have some wiggle room. 

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