WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, InstantWeatherMaps said: To me that looks much more reasonable with regard to how it’s dispersed. Albeit rather low compared to other modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I though the gfs looked pretty great for central and eastern areas, and considerably better for western areas, regardless of the specific qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Canadian looks like crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This was the 18z GFS at 18z Thursday. This is the 700 mb forcing. A very nice arcing warm front, with a strong banding signature immediately NW of it. That is what i think ends up over Hubb, ORH and Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I almost want to intern at NWS just so I can get to use these products/software It's incredible. So glad I had the opportunity at MHX to nerd out with their software so I can watch summer thunderstorms pop up each shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 From what I can see, both the 00z GFS and 12z Euro were pretty close on the strength of the shortwave vs 00z raobs. If anything they were a hair too deep vs. reality. Based on ensemble sensitivity, that might mean this may be the western goal post so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Canadian looks like crap It sucks anyway. It had the right idea and now loses it when the big boys seem to be coming in line..typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: It's incredible. So glad I had the opportunity at MHX to nerd out with their software so I can watch summer thunderstorms pop up each shift. that's awesome! that would be like heaven. The tools/software they have is beyond amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: This will be big in eastern New England. You could take it to the bank days ago. Going to be fun to watch. The rationalization starts. Just punch a pillow, man. Do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It sucks anyway. It had the right idea and now loses it when the big boys seem to be coming in line..typical. This is actually true. Seen it many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is what i think ends up over Hubb, ORH and Kev. And JC. Recognize damnit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAMNST simulated reflectivity has widespread 30-40 dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: And JC. Recognize damnit Hey, maybe it will end up over me after reading what Chris said about 12z shortwave verification... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's pretty cool on infrared how you can see those cold induced clouds off NC switch around in recent frames from a northwest wind to an east wind as our trough begins to influence things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Harvey Honking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Love the AWIPS graphics. Unrivaled detail. Ramping-up right to go time....details coming into view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The rationalization starts. Just punch a pillow, man. Do it. Lol, he's seen plenty of snow. Been nonstop since Thanksgiving up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Harv: 12-15"+ inside I 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hey, maybe it will end up over me after reading what Chris said about 12z shortwave verification... I'm just playing, just making the point I usually fall on that axis. My spot is similar to Steve's overall but we don't rack up in the same storms usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: I'm just playing, just making the point I usually fall on that axis. My spot is similar to Steve's overall but we don't rack up in the same storms usually. Oh, I know...you, Steve and Kev....like ORH south in that you always seem to catch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Harv: 12-15"+ inside I 495 12-15 "Or more"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Sounds like Harv is goin NAM/GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Sounds like Harv is goin NAM/GFS? Seems more likely one of them is right rather than blending the two, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 0z GFS doesn't have all those little vort maxes at 500h east of FL as it bottoms out and emerges off of FL......there are some there but its markedly less.....IDK for me that was a bothersome feature that I felt like it would wash itself out as we got closer....it did and it seems like a cleaner run.....this storm is so annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nothing overly crazy at 00z so far... Harvey’s call looks good... I don’t really see a reason to start pushing 20” amounts.. still another days worth of model runs to sort it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: 12-15 "Or more"... "+" covered that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is what makes me nervous...this is 700mb VV on the GFS. Pretty extensive area of some slightly negative VV's just to the NW of where the banding would be (logically). That is going to really not only damper someones day but kill someones forecast somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nothing overly crazy at 00z so far... Harvey’s call looks good... I don’t really see a reason to start pushing 20” amounts.. still another days worth of model runs to sort it out. There will be a localized area that gets 20"...remember I posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: "+" covered that.. Yeah well he emphasized it on air..that was the Honk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is what makes me nervous...this is 700mb VV on the GFS. Pretty extensive area of some slightly negative VV's just to the NW of where the banding would be (logically). That is going to really not only damper someones day but kill someones forecast somewhere Yeah, I mentioned that about an earlier run. Looked like March '13 to me. Midlevels are gonna be wound up really tight with a low this deep; I do worry that someone is gonna suck major subsidence. EDIT: Also, nice self portrait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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