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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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I would say "worry" but .. this thing is moving so fast regardless, it's total impact is going to be lower relative to bigger players of historical lore. 

That said, the troubling difference between the 00z and 06z NAM is not as easily dismissible as folks may think (or not...just sayn') 

It's not adjusting the track and so forth do to idiosyncrasies in latent heat handling ...or hydrostatic versus non-hydrostatic ..whatever.   It's straight up more proficiently phasing with the N-stream, which means those differences are arising because it is anchored into whole-scale, albeit subtle differences in the entire synoptic envelope. 

I don't know what that means as far as deterministic/operational Met going forward, but, that's different than blaming it on the usual suspects with NAM idiosyncrasies at the various time leads.  

12z's out now... 

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2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is a 940smb Winter storm lol! Who can I stay with? 

it's rare ...  

usually the deeper cyclones get that way right as they are being captured by a closing mid-level surface; for complex reasons this gives particular momentum thrust of UVV that causes surface pressures to accelerate downward for period of time - ...or not just a closing mid levels; any time there is sufficient difluence "pulling" mass balance from aloft, which can happen because of couplet jet structures too...  

So there are a few ways to force a UVV spike that ultimately leads to a period or deeper pressures...  

But in most cases, these system are not moving so fast.  This cyclone is passing some 120 naut. miles per three -hourly intervals, and that equates to 40 or so per hour... which is an unusual translation speed for extra-tropical cyclones. 

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3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Gonna be a big hit with the NAM I think.

Yes it is.

It was initially a little right of the 06z run but it's making a pretty strong turn to the left late. The stronger southern stream may have been able to compensate for the weaker northern stream by pumping up heights a bit.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it is.

It was initially a little right of the 06z run but it's making a pretty strong turn to the left late. The stronger southern stream may have been able to compensate for the weaker northern stream by pumping up heights a bit.

Take a look at the trend of the PNA ridge though. It continues to slide west. The whole longwave pattern is sliding west with it...

The real intriguing thing about this is this change in track has little/nothing to do with mesoscale convective features...

I really would think the globals follow suite; at least slightly here...

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