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January 2018 Model Discussion Thread

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Some really serious garbage posts tonight. So we have the best model on our side. This is exactly why all the model hugging gets you no where. This “storm” is still an eternity away. 

I like the idea of this being an eastern LI and NE special. The storm signal is all that’s needed now. These storms like to follow the Gulf Stream that’s why a track within 100 miles of the bench mark are so common. The difference here is a track 100 miles east of the benchmark is most likely. This pulls the Deform band out over the twin forks and eastern NE. If we use Boxing Day as an example this would put most of our area out of the big snows. In that storm once over the PA line it was a non event. That could easily be the city this time around 

I think best case scenario is we get something like Jan 2015.

That's basically what you described above.

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Kuchera is a different ratio system, and I'm not sure how it works, but it's useful in marginal temperature situations, or where there is cold air and temperatures are nowhere near an issue. Temps are in the mid 20s, and so that's probably why ratios are a bit higher. Ratios seem to be a tad bullish though, but something like 11-16" isn't far fetched with this type of setup. 

It's more like 15:1 ratio not 20:1 so it's realistic.

If it was 20:1 that 18" would have been more like 22" since the max was around 11" in the 10:1 Kuchera map.

 

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Eduardo

Eduardo

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Some really serious garbage posts tonight. So we have the best model on our side. This is exactly why all the model hugging gets you no where. This “storm” is still an eternity away. 

I like the idea of this being an eastern LI and NE special. The storm signal is all that’s needed now. These storms like to follow the Gulf Stream that’s why a track within 100 miles of the bench mark are so common. The difference here is a track 100 miles east of the benchmark is most likely. This pulls the Deform band out over the twin forks and eastern NE. If we use Boxing Day as an example this would put most of our area out of the big snows. In that storm once over the PA line it was a non event. That could easily be the city this time around 

Ya unfortunately I have to second this post.  Maybe rename this "January 2018 Model Hugging Thread?"

In all seriousness, not the best of news tonight and this could very well whiff.  But the EURO's not punting the storm back towards Bermuda with over 120 hours to go means that we are all very much still in the game here.  Obviously, those further north and east are in much better shape, but this one's worthy of some continued attention for all in this subforum IMO.  By Monday, we will be in a better position to determine who, if anyone (or everyone), here will miss out.

Storm signal's still there.  At this lead time, that's a decent place to be.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has a high of 7 for NYC on Friday after the big storm and a low of -1 for Saturday morning

I would love to see something like this, even more than a big snowstorm right now, and the low would be colder than -1 if the high was 7 lol.

 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The risk in a situation like this is the convection forms too far east of Florida and the main low further east takes over. The eastern low pulls the precip shield further east than people want to see from Philly to NYC.  That's what the EPS has had so many runs in a row east of the BM.

I did see one Met on twitter saying that is why the NavGEM is so far west saying that its unable to resolve the convective influence idea that the GFS/Euro/UKMET can. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Is there any record of a KU event in NYC that began east of the Bahamas? Seems like most of the big miller A snow events in NYC that get going this far south originate in the Gulf and not east of the Bahamas.

No KU event that I'm aware of but there has probably been some sort of SECS event which produced over 4 inches that did.  I just don't remember it,

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No KU event that I'm aware of but there has probably been some sort of SECS event which produced over 4 inches that did.  I just don't remember it,

 

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The whole double barreled low idea has to be BS.  I would say maybe 10% of major systems off the East Coast have this occur.

The models that show the double barreled low structure looks extremely suspect, lows will never be that close to each other. Lows don’t like to co-exist right next to each other. Most likely convective feedback on those models. The spacing between would be vastly different/much further apart IMO if that really even does happen. 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Is there any record of a KU event in NYC that began east of the Bahamas? Seems like most of the big miller A snow events in NYC that get going this far south originate in the Gulf and not east of the Bahamas.

definitely agree on that point-it would need something to tug it N or NW if it starts out so far east...the northern stream digging in etc.   No -NAO hurts too

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

WPC Discussion and qpf

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2017

VALID 12Z WED JAN 03 2018 - 12Z SUN JAN 07 2018

...OVERVIEW...

DOWNSTREAM FROM A WESTERN NORTH AMERICA MEAN RIDGE, STRONG EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL SUPPORT RAPIDLY DEEPENING WESTERN
ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE WHICH MAY BECOME QUITE INTENSE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY AROUND EARLY
FRI.  FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN PREVALENT OVER MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.  OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN U.S., A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/EMBEDDED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN WED-THU AS IT HEADS INTO THE MEAN RIDGE.  THEN UPSTREAM
TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ULTIMATE SHAPE/PROGRESSION
OF THE ENERGY FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  OVERALL
THIS PROGRESSION OF FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
INTO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY A WARMING TREND OVER THE PLAINS.


...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT AND PREFERENCES...

NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE COMPONENTS INVOLVED, GUIDANCE STILL
VARIES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WESTERN
ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE MID-LATE WEEK.  GFS/ECMWF/CMC RUNS THROUGH
THE 12Z/18Z CYCLES HAVE BEEN SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL THAT THE
SURFACE LOW COULD REACH A DEPTH IN THE 950'S/LOW 960'S MB BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AROUND EARLY FRI.  RECENT
UKMET RUNS, WHICH HAVE TENDED TO BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
GUIDANCE SPREAD, DEEPEN ONLY INTO THE 970'S MB.  IN THE NEW 00Z
CYCLE THUS FAR, THE GFS IS STILL EXTREMELY DEEP WHILE THE UKMET
HAS ADJUSTED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK.  BOTH 00Z
UKMET/CMC RUNS ONLY DEEPEN TO THE 970'S MB.  THE DEEPEST SOLUTIONS
SEEM TO HAVE A COMMON THEME OF INTENSIFYING THE LEADING SOUTHEAST
U.S. SHORTWAVE AS IT CROSSES THE ATLANTIC, ON A SMALL ENOUGH SCALE
TO TEMPER CONFIDENCE IN A DAYS 3-5 FORECAST.  HOWEVER TRENDS OVER
THE PAST DAY HAVE BEEN TOWARD A SHARPER, SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, AND
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS FOR FLOW DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
FROM CANADA-- WHICH DOES INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
SYSTEM.  AT THIS TIME PREFER A MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FINE DETAILS WHICH WILL STILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO WORK OUT.  AS FOR TRACK THERE HAS BEEN DECENT
CONTINUITY IN CONSENSUS SHOWING INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY WED WITH A MOST LIKELY PATH EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  SOME
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE 00Z CMC STILL SUGGEST A
SURFACE CENTER (WHETHER CONSOLIDATED OR ONE OF TWO SEPARATE
CENTERS) COULD GET CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS NARROWED CONSIDERABLY FOR THE INITIAL EAST
PACIFIC TROUGH/EMBEDDED UPPER LOW QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MEAN RIDGE.  MULTI-DAY TRENDS HAVE BEEN
TOWARD SLOWER PROGRESSION, WITH OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND GEFS
MEAN TENDING TO REFLECT THE SLOWER TIMING BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
MEAN.  ON THE OTHER HAND MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH EXACTLY HOW UPSTREAM TROUGH ENERGY MAY SPLIT AS
IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BY DAY 5 FRI, WITH FURTHER INCREASING
DIVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS AS ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES PROGRESS INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND/OR SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.  THE MOST NOTABLE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN
TOWARD SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL TROUGH IN THE ECMWF/CMC
MEANS AND FOR GFS/GEFS MEANS TO BRING SOMEWHAT MORE ENERGY
INTO/THROUGH THE WEST.  THIS IS BRINGING GUIDANCE CLOSER IN
PRINCIPLE EVEN THOUGH SPECIFICS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERSE.  AS
GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD THE PREFERENCE GOES
MORE TOWARD A GEFS/ECMWF MEAN COMPROMISE AS THE BEST PLACEHOLDER
UNTIL THERE IS GREATER CLARITY.  BY DAY 7 WOULD ULTIMATELY EXPECT
A MORE DEFINED PATTERN OVER THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED, AND
SOME OPERATIONAL RUNS PLUS 12Z CMC MEAN SUGGEST THAT ENERGY ALOFT
MAY SUPPORT A SOUTHERN CANADA-NORTHERN TIER U.S. LOW/FRONT WITH
FASTER TIMING THAN THE GEFS/ECMWF MEANS.

THE LATEST FORECAST CONSISTED OF PRIMARILY OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
EARLY (12Z-18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND LESS 12Z CMC) FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEAN INPUT SO THAT MODEL/MEAN
WEIGHTING WAS ABOUT 50/50 DAY 5 FRI AND 70 PERCENT TOWARD THE
MEANS BY DAY 7 SUN.  THIS SOLUTION PROVIDED BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONTINUITY WITH MOST ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.


...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL REINFORCE THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  AREAS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST
WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WITH ONE OR MORE DAYS OF
TEMPS 20-30F BELOW NORMAL.  PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE COLDER
READINGS THAN THAT AROUND FRI-SAT AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVER.  FRI-SAT SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR DAILY
RECORD LOW/COLD HIGH READINGS.  POTENTIALLY VERY INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY FRI MAY BRING SNOW INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIP NEAR THE COAST
DEPENDING ON LOW TRACK.  IT WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL WITH RESPECT
TO ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE
GUIDANCE HAS VARIED OVER THE DAYS FOR PRECIP IMPACTS, A PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
NORTHEAST, GENERATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND BLOWING AROUND ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS.

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PB COLTS NECK NJ

PB COLTS NECK NJ

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Is there any record of a KU event in NYC that began east of the Bahamas? Seems like most of the big miller A snow events in NYC that get going this far south originate in the Gulf and not east of the Bahamas.

If the center jumps east to that convection it's going east.

Want that phased 6 hours earlier or it will be a New England special 

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Nams night and day better, our northern stream energy really dives hr 72 influences our southern sw...granted not reliable but signs this needs to get sampled on mainland 

at what time will everything be sampled on the mainland so we have a better depiction on the models and not the huge run to run changes??

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bwt3650

bwt3650

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Nams night and day better, our northern stream energy really dives hr 72 influences our southern sw...granted not reliable but signs this needs to get sampled on mainland 

Is this causing the southern sw to be that much stronger? At 78 it looks the the low is actually east, but stronger so the preicp shield is closer to the coast.  

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Is this causing the southern sw to be that much stronger? At 78 it looks the the low is actually east, but stronger so the preicp shield is closer to the coast.  

The low is east at 78 because of the divorced convection in the Atlantic, notice next few panel wanna wrap our pesky Atlantic vort max back into the flow...imo Nam if finished would be well West 

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