Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

bluewave

January 2018 Model Discussion Thread

Recommended Posts

I'm a little bit worried about this initial piece which produces the initial surface low that swings East. I think models will struggle on which shortwaves to focus on and we could see some crazy model swings.

sketched_5a44fe9659a33.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Rjay said:

That lead energy that Yanksfan pointed out is on all the model runs so far today.   I'd like to see that phase in.  

It makes the low slip east just enough where the trough just misses it down in our latitude. Not at all discouraged. The 500mb map was just gorgeous. So close to a triple phaser. Lots of time to track. Lets hope this event doesn't disappear like the last one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No one should be encouraged or discouraged by anything at this point. Plenty of time for any solution on the table. Hopefully this pattern can amplify and give us something notable. Oftentimes patterns like this with extreme cold go out with a bang.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

No one should be encouraged or discouraged by anything at this point. Plenty of time for any solution on the table. Hopefully this pattern can amplify and give us something notable. Oftentimes patterns like this with extreme cold go out with a bang.

Curious to know what factors lead to amplification besides the PNA, NAO.  Is the position of the PV forecasted to shift next week?  I believe the MJO is in phase 8, which is favorable for EC storms?     

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

It makes the low slip east just enough where the trough just misses it down in our latitude. Not at all discouraged. The 500mb map was just gorgeous. So close to a triple phaser. Lots of time to track. Lets hope this event doesn't disappear like the last one.

When was  the last triple phased storm to hit our area? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is worth noting the possibility of a last minute, transient block that could set up off Newfoundland. This could save the day.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_31.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The March superstorm of 93 was a triple phaser. Another one that comes to mind is the blizzard of 78. Be careful what you wish for though. Triple phasers are basically hyper over amped bombs. Because of that you often see these type of storms hug the coast or become inland runners. The 93 event ended up in Philly. After a foot of snow in my area, it turned into an all out sleet fest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NutleyBlizzard said:

The March superstorm of 93 was a triple phaser. Another one that comes to mind is the blizzard of 78. Be careful what you wish for though. Triple phasers are basically hyper over amped bombs. Because of that you often see these type of storms hug the coast or become inland runners. The 93 event ended up in Philly. After a foot of snow in my area, it turned into an all out sleet fest.

Yeah I don't know of any that were all snow events in our area

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I don't know of any that were all snow events in our area

We catch the tail end usually. That’s a Maritimes specially usually. Personally I wouldn’t mind a 93 repeat. With all the cold air around and the time of year it wouldn’t be the same storm. We would however change over as the flow rockets off the Gulf Stream it doesn’t really matter how cold the preceding airmass is

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We catch the tail end usually. That’s a Maritimes specially usually. Personally I wouldn’t mind a 93 repeat. With all the cold air around and the time of year it wouldn’t be the same storm. We would however change over as the flow rockets off the Gulf Stream it doesn’t really matter how cold the preceding airmass is

Would gladly take a foot followed by sleet 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Would gladly take a foot followed by sleet 

Still way too early on this obviously. With the progressive pattern we’ll need to have some luck for a great track. A fast bomber could be an inland runner, and we could see sheared out messes like we’ve been having. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still way too early on this obviously. With the progressive pattern we’ll need to have some luck for a great track. A fast bomber could be an inland runner, and we could see sheared out messes like we’ve been having. 

This run stalls it by LI. We would get buried

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, White Gorilla said:

For now, I am cautiously optimistic and not at all putting weight into individual OP runs, although this is definitely attention grabbing.  One day at a time to track the pattern evolution. 

Agreed, snow maps will show weather porn that's for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The pattern is one that is filled with potential. That the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF now show the storm, though with differing solutions, is an encouraging thing. Still, it's about a week away, so things can still change.

Potential is all we can hope for right now and that at least is a start. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Wow nukes the area, wish I could post the maps.

Yeaaaaa, it shows a trough negatively tilting and phasing over the upper Midwest. When you see that, it’s the weather equivalent of Aaron Judge at the plate about to swing for a grand slam. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×