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rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

The trend is your friend today if your west of 95 it seems. 

Not so sure we have zero higher scoring globals on board right now.  Although their relevance juxt to the SR models is diminishing.

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

Pack, you even get snow on that run.  That can’t be right, can it?

I like the 12km NAM...completely snow holed us.  GGEM has more snow for DC now then us....so that atleast feels right.

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Well UK at 72 looks east of CMC and way east of NAM...but we care about what happens before that.  But based on the 48 hour map, the trough doesn't look as sharp as the 0z run.  And assuming since nobody posted any precip out put from the 0z UK it couldn't have been good and this run looks worse.

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Models are trying to figure out what to do with the surface pressure field just off the coast (NW of the main low on the model), adjusting to lower pressures there each run. 

yep its like clock work 850 vort is moving north this is why we shift the 0c 850 line NW at this range 

gem_z850_vort_us_fh54_trend.gif

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3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Well UK at 72 looks east of CMC and way east of NAM...but we care about what happens before that.  But based on the 48 hour map, the trough doesn't look as sharp as the 0z run.  And assuming since nobody posted any precip out put from the 0z UK it couldn't have been good and this run looks worse.

the 0z uk didn't look bad at all precip wise. snow all the way back to augusta. 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

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Just now, Lookout said:

the 0z uk didn't look bad at all precip wise. snow all the way back to augusta. 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

Well we will finally have the event within 72 hours so we don't have to wait on someone to post the QPF after 72 from RMaue's site.

 

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3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

070e2e87c125f1f33369a958dc12ad45.jpg


.

That's interesting. Thanks for posting Frosty! I thought it was about the phase myself but HM would definitely know more than I would. 

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2 minutes ago, rduwx said:

That's interesting. Thanks for posting Frosty! I thought it was about the phase myself but HM would definitely know more than I would. 

Note that he says "for the eastern US". It does phase, it's just too late.

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9 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

070e2e87c125f1f33369a958dc12ad45.jpg


.

My guess is he is talking about the PV low over the lakes...not the chaser.  The chaser definitely phases and definitely helps the southern piece go neutral/neg, hour 42.  At 66 you see the PV low drop down, that will not phase, if it did then yes, it would 93 redux.

Yep...makes sense what he says...in the NAM runs you see the PV low (NS) kick out the southern h5 low, which is why the heaver QPF never really makes it to central NC.

gem_z500_vort_us_8.png

 

gem_z500_vort_us_12.png

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Just now, WidreMann said:

UKMet precip is out on Meteocentre. It's a lot beefier than 00z and the low is definitely further NW.

i'm a bit surprised it didn't really change the back edge of the precip further inland much, despite the better look. 

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

My guess is he is talking about the PV low over the lakes...not the chaser.  The chaser definitely phases and definitely helps the southern piece go neutral/neg, hour 42.  At 66 you see the PV low drop down, that will not phase, if it did then yes, it would 93 redux.

 

 

 

If that phased, we'd get rain. So I'm fine without a triple-phaser.

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Just now, snowlover91 said:

Here’s the new UK precip panel. A crusher for Eastern NC with well over .5” in qpf, presumably as snow. P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

Wrong image.

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