Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What about the January 4th system that people were talking about yesterday? ( i have been in and out and have not checked older posts about this ) Model thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What about the January 4th system that people were talking about yesterday? ( i have been in and out and have not checked older posts about this ) OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Reggie reminding us of its flaws outside 36 hours. Can be a little amp-happy. At least the NAM improved a bit. Maybe we can tick this back a little at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: OTS Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Would be nice to end December with close to 2" additional snow tomorrow. Great way to end a good month if I end up with 12" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The RGEM has caved to the other guidance, as we expected. 1-2" south coast/Cape, SRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 20 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The RGEM has caved to the other guidance, as we expected. 1-2" south coast/Cape, SRI Yeah looks pretty awful away from the south coast. This looks like those clippers from mid December...maybe an inch or two (lucky 3 spots maybe for someone?) on the south coast and adjacent areas with little to nothing for most of the rest of SNE. Too bad, because this one had some potential. We've had some pretty cruddy luck with clippers recently...they all seem to flame out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice couple inch refresher tomorrow Pike south. We take I think that's generous off of the south coast, and probably all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah looks pretty awful away from the south coast. This looks like those clippers from mid December...maybe an inch or two (lucky 3 spots maybe for someone?) on the south coast and adjacent areas with little to nothing for most of the rest of SNE. Too bad, because this one had some potential. We've had some pretty cruddy luck with clippers recently...they all seem to flame out. I know, seems that way recently. I did notice (I think) that the RGEM tries to finger up an INV Trough into SE Mass. Is that something we should be keeping an eye on to achieve any higher accumulations? I'm not sure how legit that is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that's generous off of the south coast, and probably all around. Straight out of Kevin's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I know, seems that way recently. I did notice (I think) that the RGEM tries to finger up an INV Trough into SE Mass. Is that something we should be keeping an eye on to achieve any higher accumulations? I'm not sure how legit that is though. Yes, I would keep an eye on that...the 5H height falls are pretty good and the upper divergence is decent there for a time, so won't surprise me to see the IVT feature at the sfc trying to hang back precip over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 So im guessing that the NWS call for 1-3" here in Enfield is overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: So im guessing that the NWS call for 1-3" here in Enfield is overdone? Gotta be careful with those ranges. It looks like BOX has the BDL area right around 1.5" which of course is a trigger point for products. I know the zones (ZFP) will spit out "around one inch" for 1.4" forecasts, but at 1.5" it becomes "1 to 3 inches." (P&C probably works the same way) Of course, even 1.5" might be stretching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Ukie looked decent still...prob 1-2" to the pike. I'm kind of skeptical though...the RGEM vomit-job doesn't leave a lot of confidence and most of the other guidance has basically a non-event for anyone more than 10-15 miles north of the S coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Euro looks better through 24 than the 00z run...so some good news there, esp on south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Euro brings snow pretty far north through 33 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Into southern portions of NNE at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Yeah the H7 RH field is better too at hr 36. But certainly better for the PVD-PYM on south line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Very modest improvement from 00z...I thought it would be better than that early on but it kind of flattened 5H a bit around 30-36 hours despite it digging more at 24h...that early improvement though was able to bump the low a little more north or make it more robust. Still a pretty weak solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah the H7 RH field is better too at hr 36. But certainly better for the PVD-PYM on south line. Seems to validate an inch to the pike at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Seems to validate an inch to the pike at least. I always get nervous on the nrn edge of these with such a dry airmass. But, hopefully it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah the H7 RH field is better too at hr 36. But certainly better for the PVD-PYM on south line. Immediate south coast may get a few inches on that run. We prob need one more bump at our latitude to get anything more than a coating or a few tenths. Not impossible though...still have another model cycle to try and tick it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4-5 hours of light snow. No idea about snow growth and hard to view soundings on the phone and besides euro won’t divulge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 Screw y'all, this ones for the S/SNE crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 What time does it snow tomorrow? Morning or afternoon into night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 One more bump like that inside 24 hrs, and we have a nice event for a majority. Not asking a lot considering the December trend for northern Stream shortwaves to amp up signficantly inside 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I could see getting an inch or maybe two out of 0.05” of qpf up this way if all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 18z NAM is a bump worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 22 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: 18z NAM is a bump worse. Its barely a flurry down here. Lets roll with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 MEH.... I could see this being barely a flake here or a couple inches... see how it shakes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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