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Baroclinic Zone

Pre New Years Clipper/Re-developer

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Models have been showing a s/w diving out of Canada developing a low as it exits the coast.  Some models are hanging back an inverted trough with the parent low over the GL.  It's a delicate set up that could still go either way but I think it warrants a thread since we are now in the day 4 period.

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It's worth mentioning that snow ratios are more complicated than just cold temps = high ratio. That temp profile aloft needs to be more isothermal with surface temps when it is a really cold air mass. Otherwise, you end up with your best lift above the DGZ, and that's no good for anyone. 

Now it's hard to get a sense of what the models are really showing, without Euro forecast soundings, and the GFS being a clean whiff obviously not showing any RH in the DGZ.

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10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I will be honest, I’ve kind of had enough of the 1” or whatever clipper events. I’d like to think this could produce more than that 

Just collect the pennies and save up enough to spend it all on a quarter event later in season. 

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http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html

Old looking progs.  But they do work and come out quickly.  

This isn't just a gfs is suppressed situation.  There's a lot of disagreement on lots of non-gfs guidance too.  Lots of cooks in the kitchen with fast flow.  I'm thinking a light event is most likely.   

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