USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12z Model Suite coming in right now showing a potential inland runner type of storm track with a potentially high amplified pattern aloft and bombogenesis at the surface. The GGEM and EURO are intense with the surface low track and intensity, while the GFS is weak and out to sea, I think a solution in the middle should suffice at this point as models try to resolve the inner details of the situation unfolding for a potential Christmas Week Coastal Storm. I figured I should start a thread for this storm as we are within 120 hours and significant potential relies in the details on the models. Let's discuss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Thinking 6-10" here with lollies to 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 How is a surface low track intense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How is a surface low track intense? I meant for them to be separate are you done with college for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Bump? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro op crushes Interior new england but shifted east. Eps also has shifted the low east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS up still has the inverted finger but starting to come around to low-pressure idea. Hopefully we see a little bit more of a compromise. I will take the EPS solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The individuals on the EPS are all over the place. Its 2 camps for sure... camp one is amped up like the OP and camp 2 is pretty much a non-event like the GFS. It's pretty crazy. One member is like 990mb over BOS while the next member has scattered snow showers and cold. I guess a blend and an average of these two camps is in order to get a 1000mb wave passing near the Benchmark, ha ha. You have the super amped: And then you have the "what storm?" camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I still think the compressed flow and confluence with no blocking at all will cause this to go quite a bit southeast if it even forms at all. It would take quite a bit to run it inland again with that confluence and the speed of the flow in southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Pretty easy forecast for this one. Snow starts Xmas Eve late..ends Xmas morning. 4-8 inches SNE..less to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty easy forecast for this one. Snow starts Xmas Eve late..ends Xmas morning. 4-8 inches SNE..less to the NW BTV agrees with you as do most on here it seems. Confluence, fast flow, baroclinic zone shifting east. No reason for it to hug at all. More likely it doesn't form at all to be honest or its more inverted trough snow shower type stuff. BTV gave the picnic tables a shout-out. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 409 AM EST Thursday...Still plenty of uncertainty on potential coastal system for Monday...as model solutions are not in agreement. The battle between the GFS and ECMWF continues...with the GFS showing a very suppressed system well to our southeast and limited impacts on our cwa...while 12z/00z ECMWF solutions both support a high impact major snowstorm for most of our cwa. As much as I would enjoy seeing the picnic tables buried on Mt Mansfield...latest trends in the 00z ECWMF shows a slight shift eastward in sfc low pres development...along with heaviest qpf axis. I believe the pattern upstairs supports this idea...as positive AO prevails for the next couple of days. Water vapor shows s/w of interest over the western canadian rockies this morning...which will quickly dive south today and round the mid/upper level trof base by 00z Monday. Thinking the fast confluent flow aloft and limited upstream blocking will suppress system to our south and east on Monday and limit large scale development. However...the spread btwn ensemble and individual models is very large...but trends off the GEM/UKMET and GFS is for limited impact across our cwa. Will continue with likely pops for now and hope models start agreeing on a solution soon. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Eh, it's a tough call. Wouldn't write it off in BTV land yet. But, for once...I am having fingers crossed that myself and fam can finally have a white christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Eh, it's a tough call. Wouldn't write it off in BTV land yet. But, for once...I am having fingers crossed that myself and fam can finally have a white christmas. Yeah I'm hoping for ya.... I know I'll still have snow on the ground anyway from the cutter that's not quite a cutter and probably 3-4" tomorrow/tomorrow night. I just think there are a few good meteorological reasons for this to be flatter and weaker. More so than there are reasons to think its stronger and more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Eh, it's a tough call. Wouldn't write it off in BTV land yet. But, for once...I am having fingers crossed that myself and fam can finally have a white christmas. Yeah--this one's for you, Scott; an inside 495 special. I'll be driving to Marblehead for Christmas and then heading up to Maine that night. The snows in both areas should be decent, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 way too much spread still on xmas, i am on the meh train for that one back here right now so right now tomorrow looks best north, xmas east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 hours ago, centralmass said: Merry Christmas. For some. I'm out of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Funny the 12z NAM wants nothing to do with any snows anywhere on Christmas given the always accurate 84 hour panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 more rain for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Here comes the GFS for Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12z GFS looking like its going to make a run at the Christmas storm, Trough digging further SE and SLP along the coast is well to the west of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS is starting to cave to EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS looking like its going to make a run at the Christmas storm, Trough digging further SE and SLP along the coast is west of the 06z run. Boom...good hit for SNE at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Another shift like that and we are looking at advisory snows for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Nice look. Has more work to do for less of a small conv zone and more of a CCB, but a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Boom...good hit for SNE at 96 hours Real good actually, Coming around to the Euro now, looks like its going to be a white christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It's a Fesivus Miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just last to the party once again, This is why the Euro is still the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Rain to snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Santa punches the grinch in his jaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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