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December 21st-23rd Winter Storm


hlcater

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1 hour ago, Tarheel17 said:

*I am visiting family in SE MI hence I am posting here*

I think it is worth keeping an eye on the NAM. I know it has a bad rap and often goes very over-amped on systems, but following the SE boards it's had two cases recently where it was much better than the global models.

1) Sniffing out a warm nose in a strong synoptic setup. This is very prevalent in the SE from Atlantic/GOM air. Last January the NAM sniffed out a warm nose 3 days out that the EURO/GFS/GEM all missed, even with the event right on top of us.

2) Marginal temperature/precipitation event along a frontal passage. The NAM and other short range, meso-scale models predicted the precipitation field and temperature viability 3 days in advance  during our Dec 8 event as cold air pushed over the mountains. The globals completely missed a relatively narrow band of 8-12 inches of snow in that environment.

I am not saying to trust the NAM by any means, but it has shown enough recently in the SE to at least merit observation and consideration, even in the ~3 day range. Not sure if it was upgraded or what.

 

the NAM gets trashed when we are tracking hurricanes even when they are on close approach but once in awhile thee NAM nails the setup  and thus the track better than the globals

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20 minutes ago, tuanis said:

ea1i5.jpg
I'm starting to feel that feeling I forgot...

Looking more interesting for sure. Personally, I refuse to get too excited with questions about cold air (though I think it's likely going to be good enough to get a changeover) and track.  Been burned before with some of these types of setups having a runaway northwest trend in the final few days.  Not always though.

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56 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looking more interesting for sure. Personally, I refuse to get too excited with questions about cold air (though I think it's likely going to be good enough to get a changeover) and track.  Been burned before with some of these types of setups having a runaway northwest trend in the final few days.  Not always though.

LAF pinger flashbacks eh?;)

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Pingers, rain, yeah. 

I would think there would be a limit to how far north it can go though, unless the trough goes negative tilt very quickly. So I wouldn't anticipate the low running through Chicago. 

the trend is your friend, looking better for chicago...temps not really working in our favor but moisture certainly is...lets see if we can get that cold air to move in a little faster..after that it really doesn't look promising for anything of substance except cold dry air, maybe a minor accumulations

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1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The NAM and GFS seem to be coming into agreement.  We'll see what the Euro does

Yes, the Canadian has been in its own little world, bless its heart, but to its credit it did pick up on details early on that the GFS and Euro hadn't quite accepted. Now that we have the NAM and GFS in general agreement, though, I'm less concerned about the Canadian being out in left field than the Euro.

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6 hours ago, Stebo said:

Mood flakes at best.

Lol you said that several weeks back before we got over a foot of snow from a few clippers. I do see your mindset of the bigger the better, but it seems that with this particular setup we benefit from a weaker system in terms of snow potential. Stronger would go further west, no?

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol you said that several weeks back before we got over a foot of snow from a few clippers. I do see your mindset of the bigger the better, but it seems that with this particular setup we benefit from a weaker system in terms of snow potential. Stronger would go further west, no?

That's almost always the case. Stronger storms cut to the west and weaker are suppressed much easier.

This one now looks to be a whiff to the south now.

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