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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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I'm actually fine in cold weather.  Skied Le Massif last year in -10F and had a blast.

 

But there are those in my family who suffer from chronically cold hands...gonna be a tough trip for her.

 

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7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Very interesting look just before New Years on todays 12z Euro.  PV splits in 2 and storm forms in between and rides up along the eastern seaboard.

While I'm hoping for the Christmas miracle...I'm still a bit skeptical it works out for us down here on the shoreline...so the New Years event is the one I really have my eye on. Seems Euro may argue for a front end thumper to mix/rain for a chunk of the region...vs GGEM and GFS which keep the cold locked in. Of course 10-days out, so no use getting wrapped up in specifics. 

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

While I'm hoping for the Christmas miracle...I'm still a bit skeptical it works out for us down here on the shoreline...so the New Years event is the one I really have my eye on. Seems Euro may argue for a front end thumper to mix/rain for a chunk of the region...vs GGEM and GFS which keep the cold locked in. Of course 10-days out, so no use getting wrapped up in specifics. 

Skeptical in the sense of rain/snow or precip in general?

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2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Skeptical in the sense of rain/snow or precip in general?

For x-mas...I'd like to see another couple runs before celebrating. We'll have colder air filtering x-mas eve...but if it ends up a weaker event like the Euro I worry cold won't be well established and we'll be dealing with BL issues...but I'm strictly speaking right along the shoreline...just inland should be fine. 

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1 minute ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

For x-mas...I'd like to see another couple runs before celebrating. We'll have colder air filtering x-mas eve...but if it ends up a weaker event like the Euro I worry cold won't be well established and we'll be dealing with BL issues...but I'm strictly speaking right along the shoreline...just inland should be fine. 

Gotcha.....I would think shoreline would want a bit of a flatter type system rather than something deeper wrapping in the warmer ocean air...no?

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13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

10 day totals are not bad.  We'd all be well above normal to date for snowfall.

ecmwf_acc_snow_ne_240.thumb.png.c34c7456bbf3f64d29ce4e8576f0d2aa.png

I dont think snow maps do justic with the type of potential though. a split flow with the pv overhead can zonk a big one. All things considered, we are riped to be snowy...just need to get lucky. “One time!”

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I dont think snow maps do justic with the type of potential though. a split flow with the pv overhead can zonk a big one. All things considered, we are riped to be snowy...just need to get lucky. “One time!”

Lol...I already told my wife we leave for FL after the snow Xmas day and return before the snow late week.  She’s down for that so we’re good.

 

EPS looks good for Monday.

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2 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

It looks like the over hyped king has been dethroned!

How do-on a d7+ prog?   Because that’s what I was referencing.  Gfs caved to the euro on every aspect inside of d5.  Remember gfs was dry Monday as recently as 18z yesterday.

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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

How do-on a d7+ prog?   Because that’s what I was referencing.  Gfs caved to the euro on every aspect inside of d5.  Remember gfs was dry Monday as recently as 18z yesterday.

Yes I see what you were saying now. It's just that all of the models are struggling.

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