Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I only saw 500’s and missed these at noon. 

That’s not a dry looking deal. I stand corrected.

SWFE’s are one of my fav and most memorable winter weather patterns.  Love long duration stuff

It's a long ways away but it keeps showing up over and over. Ops and ensembles have had it for at least the last 4-6 runs. Big impact events rarely sneak up. Models will show many iterations but the same general idea locks in. Another couple days of this and it's probably legit one way or another. It's a very good setup for and they don't come around all that often either. Just have to hope it happens overhead and not next door. 

I mentioned 2-3 days ago that everything looks ripe for an epic ice storm somewhere in the middle of the country. I want snow of course but there could be an historic event shaping up for somebody before the year is over. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Missed out on Happy hour GFS chatter. I personally like being on the North side of the storm the GFS op shows. Much more room for improvement, and less worrying as compared to being on the South side. I think for all of us, 30s and dry is better than 40s/50s and rain. Still room for improvement, and if the biases we've seen so far this season hold up, the storm will trend NW and stronger within 3 days.

Looking at individual GEFS members, some show the storm too West, and some show storm OTS. Still at least 3 days until consensus should be better.

gefs_ptype_ens_ma_25.thumb.png.e4d4c6bcfd7a05c78cd3ca497fc0ac5f.png

I think the new point of interest should be the 27th-30th, since there's a fairly strong signal between the ops and the ensembles that there will be precip in the area. I think we would all trade a sloppy Christmas snow to have a potential big snow event during the 27th-30th. 

Also, kind of surprised nobody posted the EPS control. Would be ultimate troll for everyone near or North of DC

eps_snow_c_ma_61.thumb.png.b73025554f13e30160f32356b5fc4ca0.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 Big impact events rarely sneak up. Models will show many iterations but the same general idea locks in.

Agreed. It is usually the case for the big ones. You get pretty good agreement from the models at long lead times.

And the 18Z GFS is exactly what I was concerned about during the 12Z run. Too much of a good thing. Of course we have no idea how strong any vort will be that forms on the boundary. The stronger the better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Agreed. It is usually the case for the big ones. You get pretty good agreement from the models at long lead times.

And the 18Z GFS is exactly what I was concerned about during the 12Z run. Too much of a good thing. Of course we have no idea how strong any vort will be that forms on the boundary. The stronger the better.

Better than hoping that cold air gets in just in time

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs looking even colder long range thru 288...geez

The pattern does a full reload/repeat. Eps is similar and super cold at the end. Coldest mean highs on the eps are d14-15. 

I'm starting to not care as much about the holiday deal. If we get into a progressive flow/cold reload pattern it really could be a heater like we saw in  Jan/Feb 14. Might not be all snow and it may surprise people again that it can sleet or rain 2 days after single digit lows...but I'm thinking the two weeks after christmas may be what defines this winter. Fail and it's a disaster of epic proportions or bullseye and we talk about it for years.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a long ways away but it keeps showing up over and over. Ops and ensembles have had it for at least the last 4-6 runs. Big impact events rarely sneak up. Models will show many iterations but the same general idea locks in. Another couple days of this and it's probably legit one way or another. It's a very good setup for and they don't come around all that often either. Just have to hope it happens overhead and not next door. 

I mentioned 2-3 days ago that everything looks ripe for an epic ice storm somewhere in the middle of the country. I want snow of course but there could be an historic event shaping up for somebody before the year is over. 

Agreed man. I was trying to get a feel for where the goalposts were going to be and 500’s were showing a little split flow action but nowhere near the indicator that you showed.  Yeah they are rare and I hope the PJ holds strong so that we all can cash in on frozen varieties and not that 12” concrete block of ZR. (I saw your post ;))   

Love snow n sleet. Just not a big freezing rain fan....unless it snows in top. Then we’re good.  I won’t be too picky. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed man. I was trying to get a feel for where the goalposts were going to be and 500’s were showing a little split flow action but nowhere near the indicator that you showed.  Yeah they are rare and I hope the PJ holds strong so that we all can cash in on frozen varieties and not that 12” concrete block of ZR. (I saw your post ;))   

Love snow n sleet. Just not a big freezing rain fan....unless it snows in top. Then we’re good.  I won’t be too picky. 

better to have it the other way around.  makes a good base.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed man. I was trying to get a feel for where the goalposts were going to be and 500’s were showing a little split flow action but nowhere near the indicator that you showed.  Yeah they are rare and I hope the PJ holds strong so that we all can cash in on frozen varieties and not that 12” concrete block of ZR. (I saw your post ;))   

Love snow n sleet. Just not a big freezing rain fan....unless it snows in top. Then we’re good.  I won’t be too picky. 

I agree with you. Any accumulating snow and I'm happy. Sleet is ok, but a big ice storm would be remembered for many years, event though ice isn't as close to as good as snow

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The pattern does a full reload/repeat. Eps is similar and super cold at the end. Coldest mean highs on the eps are d14-15. 

I'm starting to not care as much about the holiday deal. If we get into a progressive flow/cold reload pattern it really could be a heater like we saw in  Jan/Feb 14. Might not be all snow and it may surprise people again that it can sleet or rain 2 days after single digit lows...but I'm thinking the two weeks after christmas may be what defines this winter. Fail and it's a disaster of epic proportions or bullseye and we talk about it for years.  

Yup- it feels like the window starting around the 28th is a push a lot of chips to the middle of the table situation. But I am one who chases the big ones on the models - so way more interested in that period too than trying for mood flakes on the 25th...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Yup- it feels like the window starting around the 28th is a push a lot of chips to the middle of the table situation. But I am one who chases the big ones on the models - so way more interested in that period too than trying for mood flakes on the 25th...

We can have both.  I mean the 25th won’t impact the 28th.  Pulling for both.  Why not

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

This is true but you already have a base.....

i look at the cams everyday ;) 

Hope you are well man. Been a while. 

we're doing better now.  the wife had some health issues this fall, but all looks good now.

 

I haven't checked the cams, hopefully we have a good season.  we need it after the last 2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

we're doing better now.  the wife had some health issues this fall, but all looks good now.

 

I haven't checked the cams, hopefully we have a good season.  we need it after the last 2

Sorry to hear but glad for the good news. 

Yeah it’s been horrid in northern pa. Rode way more down here than up at cabin in last 2 seasons (and that was 3 times total).  Looking rather favorable for many locals in the coming weeks. Just hoping the AO and god forbid any semblance of NAO show up as we all are off to a nice start.  Would be nice to pad some totals for once. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’ve been reading some useful resources this evening online about analyzing weather patterns at the 500 mb level; my searches came across this paper written by NWS Missouri re: a checklist for winter weather.  While I’m not a fan of checklists per se when forecasting conditions, there’s some helpful information in here regarding forecasting freezing drizzle vs snow (12/15 comes to mind), forecasting snow, and forecasting where S/S+ may set up.  I’ve bookmarked to refer back to for our next tracking threat inside 4 days.

https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter_checklist_paper

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I would love to have experienced this true epic blizzard . Temps 0-10 F while snowing.  Maybe this  is the year .

1899

021212-blizz2.gif

https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/feb-1899-coldest-lows-map.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

Wasn't that when DC had it's all time low temperature of -15? If that has to be the initial temperature to have heavy snow at 0-10F, that would be very tough

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I would love to have experienced this true epic blizzard . Temps 0-10 F while snowing.  Maybe this  is the year .

1899

021212-blizz2.gif

https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/feb-1899-coldest-lows-map.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

Just a fyi....most of the alltime  record lows set in 1899 still stand but some were broken in 1994 *B)

I agree...I feel like I have experienced a lot of historic winter events in my 41 years....The one that I have always thought would be amazing would be a true blizzard with temps in the single digits.  I recall being jealous of New England in 2015? I think...remember a storm they had with temps around 0f... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned and locked this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...